Iran Nuclear Watch: “Ahmadinejad Isn’t Bluffing”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, waves as he is welcomed by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda, righ, on his arrival in Jakarta, Indonesia, early Wednesday May 10, 2006. Ahmadinejad arrived in Indonesia early Wednesday to discuss the international dispute over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: “Ahmadinejad Isn’t Bluffing”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent US President George W. Bush a letter. But it’s not likely to make any difference in the ongoing conflict over the country’s nuclear program. Iran expert Wahied Wahdat-Hagh told SPIEGEL ONLINE why not.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Wahdat-Hagh, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrote a letter to US President George W. Bush. In the letter, he once again questions Israel’s right to exist, accuses the US of lying about Iraq and insists on his country’s right to use nuclear technology. What message is Ahmadinejad trying to communicate?

Wahdat-Hagh: The purpose is to show strength. It’s Ahmadinejad’s way of saying: “We are powerful! You are a cowboy! Islam, though, is the true democracy and your system will collapse.” Former Iranian President Khatami used to give interviews to CNN. But Ahmadinejad has gone directly to Bush and told him straight to his face that Iran is going to continue with the strategy it has thus far followed.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The letter, in other words, doesn’t open up any new options for the West to convince Iran to give up its nuclear program.

Wahdat-Hagh: Ali Ardashir Larijani, the head of the country’s Supreme National Security Council, has already said that the letter can’t be read as a watering down of the Iranian position. On the day that the UN Security Council once again addresses the issue of Iran, Ahmadinejad could have said: “I’ll make some concessions on our uranium enrichment program.” But he’s not willing to do that. Instead, he points to American mistakes — for example in Iraq.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is the letter intended for the Iranian people just as much as for the Americans?

Wahdat-Hagh: Yes, and not only that. The letter is intended for the entire Muslim world. Ahmadinejad wants to build an anti-Western coalition and Iran wants to present itself as the leading power in the Muslim world.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Bellicose statements have been coming out of Iran for months. We’ve heard claims that they’ve developed rockets with a longer range, new submarines, and a number of other advances. Is this mere propaganda?

Wahdat-Hagh: Iran is arming itself. There is no question about that. The maneuvers they have conducted prove it and the defense minister has pronounced that the country is going to produce rockets like it produces cars. Iran will never be able to overtake the US when it comes to military power. But its goals are to boost military power and to build a nuclear weapon. The past 27 years have shown that the Iranians only admit to possessing something after they already have it. Ahmadinejad is not Saddam Hussein.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You don’t think he’s bluffing?

Wahdat-Hagh: No. He’s not bluffing. Everything that wasn’t true in Iraq, is true in Iran. The country has a rocket program. And it has a nuclear program.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: There are military experts who think that the weapons Iran allegedly possesses are nothing but products of their imagination. Iran even has trouble maintaining its airforce.

Wahdat-Hagh: It’s true that part of the Iranian airforce, purchased from the US in the 1970s, has trouble getting spare parts. But that also helps explain why Iran is so proud that its new submarine is a purely Iranian product. It is, of course, difficult to say how important the Iranian weapons really are. But the country is extremely proud of its weaponry.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why exactly is Iranian arming itself. Is it interested in defending itself against an Israeli or US attack on its nuclear installations? Or is the country preparing to go on the offensive?

Wahied Wahdat-Hagh was born to Iranian parents in Ludwigsburg, Germany. He is a political scientist and sociologist. Since 2003, he has worked as the Iran expert for Middle East Media Research Institute in Berlin.

Wahdat-Hagh: Since the 1979 revolution, it has become clear that Iranian policy has two faces: a pragmatic one and an apocalyptic one. On the one hand, Iran is smart enough not to endanger itself. That’s why I don’t think the country is trying to obtain a nuclear weapon in order to carry out a first strike on Israel — they are all too aware of what the consequences would be. But even Khatami said, “if we are attacked, we will turn the region into hell.” One has to take such a threat seriously. Seventy percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian defense minister calls it the “world’s throat” — and it’s in Iranian hands. To block the straits, all you need is three divers, a couple of mines and a ship. With incalucuable consequences. Furthermore, 40,000 people have already volunteered as jihadis. Ahmadinejad’s position is: We’ll fight with everything we’ve got if we’re attacked. If we have to, we’ll destroy you and ourselves together.SPIEGEL ONLINE: Given the rising danger of a military confrontation, what kind of popular support does Ahmadinejad enjoy?

Wahdat-Hagh: The letter, and the fact that Ahmadinejad uses such a tone with the most powerful man in the world, makes an impression. But it provides Iranians with no clear indication as to what impact the letter may have. There is indeed no new position to be found in the letter. On the one hand, there is without a doubt a large amount of support for his policies. But on the other hand, I don’t agree with other analysts who say that all Iranians stand behind the nuclear program. And I also don’t give credence to those who argue that pointed threats from the West are a mistake because they bring the regime and the people together. There is even evidence that both positions are wrong. Credible, and thus carefully guarded, surveys indicate that the majority of Iranians are in fact against the nuclear program were it to lead Iran into war. And a declaration from the country’s official student organization likewise claims that the the nuclear program is a threat to national security. And even during the May 1 demonstrations in Tehran, there were critical voices to be heard. Instead, the people of Iran demanded work and an improved quality of life.

Interview conducted by Yassin Musharbash

Read Captain Ed’s analysis, Iran Expert: Ahmadinejad Letter A Defiant Challenge

Another noteworthy piece was published today in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required): The Perils of Engagement by AMIR TAHERI

With the failure today of UNSC action and Ahmadinejad’s lecture to President Bush, Flap feels the “POINT OF NO RETURN” is imminent.

What is the point for the United States to be made a mockery by a third rate Mullahocracy?

Ahmadinejad’s letter was condescending, trite, and intended to insult President Bush and the american people. Flap is personally insulted.

And who in the hell does Ahmadinejad think he is to lecture me or my President?

The Europeans have already proven themselves fools in negotiating with the Iranian Mullahs while Iran developed and upgraded their uranium enrichment programs.

Bush has sufficient cover from the international community that views him as a maverick in any case.

Time to get tough and time for action against Ahmainejad and the Mullahs.

Watch for some action by the United States and/or Israel. Will Iran provoke?

Possible……

The time for negotiation is OVER.

And ENGAGEMENT – NO WAY!

Stay tuned…….