Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate
Election Projection has final United States Senate Election 2006 Projections:
Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND
DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1
Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of six Senate seats and loss of GOP control of the Senate. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is election Projections summary of the race:
| Summary of Senate Races
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| State | Major Candidates | Projected Result |
| Arizona | Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) | Mod GOP Hold |
| California | Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs Richard Mountjoy (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Connecticut | Lieberman(I) / Lamont(D) / Schlesinger(R) | Mod IND Gain |
| Delaware | Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Florida | Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Hawaii | Daniel Akaka (D)-inc vs Cynthia Thielen (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Indiana | Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Maine | Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs Jean Hay Bright (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Maryland | OPEN: Ben Cardin (D) vs Michael Steele (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| Massachusetts | Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs Kenneth Chase (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs Mike Bouchard (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| Minnesota | OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Mississippi | Trent Lott (R)-inc vs Erik Fleming (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Missouri | Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Montana | Conrad Burns (R)-inc vs Jon Tester (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Nebraska | Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Nevada | John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) | Mod GOP Hold |
| New Jersey | Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) | Weak DEM Hold |
| New Mexico | Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs Allen McCulloch (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| New York | Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs John Spencer (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| North Dakota | Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Dwight Grotberg (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Ohio | Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Pennsylvania | Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) | Mod DEM Gain |
| Rhode Island | L. Chafee (R)-inc vs S. Whitehouse (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Tennessee | OPEN: Bob Corker (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr. (D) | Weak GOP Hold |
| Texas | Kay Hutchison (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Utah | Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| Vermont | OPEN: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Richard Tarrant (R) | Strong IND Hold |
| Virginia | George Allen (R)-inc vs James Webb, Jr. (D) | Weak DEM Gain |
| Washington | Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick (R) | Mod DEM Hold |
| West Virginia | Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Wisconsin | Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs Robert Lorge (R) | Strong DEM Hold |
| Wyoming | Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) | Strong GOP Hold |
| BOLD – party turnover
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| Race ratings:
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| For projected margins of victory, click here | ||
The Real Clear Politics Senate Summary chart is here.
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Likely Dem
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Leans Dem
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Toss Up
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Leans GOP
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Likely GOP
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MI: Stabenow (D) < <
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| Arizona | Kyl (R)* 49.3% vs. Pederson (D) 40.7% | Chart | Kyl +8.6% |
| Connecticut | Lieberman (I) 49.8% vs. Lamont (D) 38.0% | Chart | Lieberman +11.8% |
| Maryland | Steele (R) 45.0% vs. Cardin (D) 48.7% | Chart | Cardin +3.7% |
| Michigan | Bouchard (R) 37.8% vs. Stabenow (D)* 52.3% | Chart | Stabenow +14.5% |
| Minnesota | Kennedy (R) 37.7% vs. Klobuchar (D) 53.0% | Chart | Klobuchar +15.3% |
| Missouri | Talent (R)* 45.3% vs. McCaskill (D) 48.5% | Chart | McCaskill +3.2% |
| Montana | Burns (R)* 45.5% vs. Tester (D) 48.5% | Chart | Tester +3.0% |
| New Jersey | Kean (R) 41.8% vs. Menendez (D)* 48.2% | Chart | Menendez +6.4% |
| Ohio | DeWine (R)* 43.3% vs. Brown (D) 53.3% | Chart | Brown +10.0% |
| Pennsylvania | Santorum (R)* 40.8% vs. Casey (D) 52.3% | Chart | Casey +11.5% |
| Rhode Island | Chafee (R) 43.3% vs. Whitehouse (D) 48.7% | Chart | Whitehouse +5.4% |
| Tennessee | Corker (R) 51.0% vs. Ford (D) 43.6% | Chart | Corker +7.4% |
| Virginia | Allen (R)* 46.8% vs. Webb (D) 48.3% | Chart | Webb +1.5% |
| Washington | McGavick (R) 40.5% vs. Cantwell (D)* 53.8% | Chart | Cantwell +13.3% |
The GOP Senate Debacle has arrived. One race change will make the result transfer to GOP control. Flap feels this most likely will occur in either Rhode Island or Montana.
Stay tuned for House Projections which ARE even more bruising to the GOP later in the evening.
For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.
Previous:
United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE
Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle
United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE
Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE
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