Mitt Romney Watch: The Mormon Affinity Vote and Iowa Expectations
Republican presidential hopeful, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at Insight Technology in Londonderry, N.H. Monday, Dec. 17, 2007
There are a couple of pieces this morning about Mitt Romney, Iowa election expectations and the Mormon Affinity vote for Mitt.
Every pundit is talking about the Huckaboom and the spectacular rise of Mike Huckabee in the polls. Flap knows with time the bloom will fall off the Huckabee rose and he will start to fade except among his base of Evangelical Christians.
What will not fade away is the Mormon turn-out vote for one of their own, Mitt Romney.
Flap’s experience in California is that members of the LDS church are VERY active in civic affairs, takes voting seriously, and WILL turn-out in HUGE numbers for Mitt Romney and Mitt Romney alone.
Soren is correct about Iowa:
The upshot is that you can safely add 5% or so to Romney’s numbers in any Iowa poll. Furthermore, if the Romney campaign is smart — and they are very, very smart — they are trying to drive these numbers even higher. What if turnout was 70% not 50%? Then that would be the equivalent of adding about 7% to his numbers.
The bottom line is that Mitt Romney will win a caucus that looks close. Romney starts with 5-7% of the vote. Any attempt to play down Romney’s chances in Iowa is just a game, the expectations game.
So, does the Romney campaign KNOW something about lowering Iowa expectations NOW to make a plausible Romney win more meaningful?
The answer is YES.
Stay tuned……
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4 Comments
Mike
i love how people bring up the fact that he is mormon as a means of using it against him. were he any other from any other religious group nothing would be said. just goes to show how dumb and ignorant some people are… forming opinions and biases from what they hear, not from what they know.
Dan
I’m not a Baptist and I’m not a Mormon, but from everything I’ve read and heard in my life, both are good churches and both religions have Jesus Christ as their foundation. I’ve met very good people from both religions. But for one candidate to try to gain political advantage by implying that the other is not a good christian is stooping pretty low. Such a move shows very poor judgement and has absolutely no place in a presidential election. In the end, I think Huckabee will look back and realize that this was the moment he shot himself in the foot, leading to his demise in the election.
Flap
If your comment about being dumb and ignorant is addressed at me please read my comments policy and then consider this a warning.
And, I grew up with a number of Mormons and believe I know (saw first hand) that they vote in block for their own. There is nothing wrong with this but this is a fact.
No?
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