FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

JPost: Israel threatens to resume war if Hizbullah refuses to disarm

The IDF will have to resume operations in Lebanon if the expanded United Nations force being assembled does not fulfill its obligation to dismantle Hizbullah, an official in the Prime Minister’s Office warned on Tuesday.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly reached a deal allowing Hizbullah to keep its weapons but refrain from exhibiting them in public. Israeli officials called the arrangement a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which passed over the weekend and was approved on Sunday by the cabinet.

The text of United Nations Resolution 1701 is here.

Is there any doubt the Hassan Nasrallah and the Lebanese government are stalling, thus enabling Hezbollah to re-entrench in areas occupied by the Israeli Defense forces?

NOPE

“The resolution is clear that Hizbullah needs to be removed from the border area, embargoed and dismantled,” the official said. “If the resolution is not implemented, we will have to take action to prevent the rearming of Hizbullah. I don’t think backtracking will serve any useful purpose. There has to be pressure on Hizbullah to disarm or there will have to be another round.”

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is expected to raise the issue when she meets in New York on Wednesday with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Annan angered Israeli officials when he told Channel 2 on Tuesday that “dismantling Hizbullah is not the direct mandate of the UN,” which could only help Lebanon disarm the organization. Annan upset officials further when he said that deploying international forces in Lebanon would take “weeks or months,” and not days as expected.

Kofi Annan cannot be trusted and Israel will have NO CHOICE but to resume hostilities if Hezbollah does not begin or at least acquiesce to a disarming process Wednesday.

Flap thinks the cease-fire is as good as over - just like the Olmert government which may fall within days.

Captain Ed agrees with Flap.

Annan also miscalculated the Israeli impulse for a cessation of hostilities. He was under the impression that Israel had tired of the military option, but in reality Israel won everything it wanted in the action, especially under the terms of 1701. The Israelis still had plenty of will left to fight, but with the exception of pushing into the Bekaa, a further incursion past the Litani would have produced rapidly diminishing results. The Israelis want a sovereign Lebanese government to take responsibility for its own territory, and do not want to conduct another long occupation based on the lack of a partner in Beirut.

Don’t expect this cease-fire to last more than the next 24-48 hours. Annan himself managed to destroy it, and the UN Security Council will be hard pressed to make any more demands on the Israelis — which leaves them open to do whatever they think best without further interference.

Stay tuned……

Backdropped by a poster of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, United Nations peacekeepers from France sit atop their armoured personnel carrier in the outskirts of the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006. The international community was scrambling Tuesday to put together a fortified U.N. peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces began a pullout that many fear could create a dangerous vacuum.

Previous:

Israel At War Watch: Hassan Nasrallah - The Disarmament of Hezbollah Should NOT Be Discussed Now

Israel at War Watch: The Arab Street Rejoices - Mocks Israel And United States

Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu - Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack

Cox & Forkum: Incoming

BCC News: Israeli papers turn on Olmert, army.

An onslaught of criticism greets the Israeli government in the country’s press, a day after the cease-fire in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Israeli military came into force.Commentators note that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert failed to achieve the objectives that he had himself set out at the start of the fighting, primarily the release of the two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hezbollah and the destruction of Hezbollah’s fighting capacity.

The Jerusalem Post: The Olmert government must go by Caroline Glick. From all sides of the political spectrum calls are being raised for the establishment of an official commission of inquiry to investigate the Olmert government’s incompetent management of the war in Lebanon. These calls are misguided.

We do not need a commission to know what happened or what has to happen. The Olmert government has failed on every level. The Olmert government must go.

The Knesset must vote no confidence in this government and new elections must be carried out as soon as the law permits. If the Knesset hesitates in taking this required step, then the people of Israel must take to the streets in mass demonstrations and demand that our representatives send Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister Amir Peretz and their comrades out to pasture. …

The UN cease-fire that Olmert, Livni and Peretz applaud undercuts Israel’s sovereignty; protects Hizbullah; lets Iran and Syria off the hook; lends credibility to our enemies’ belief that Israel can be destroyed; emboldens the Palestinians to launch their next round of war; and leaves IDF hostages Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in captivity.

Indeed, put a fork in Prime Minister Olmert - HE IS DONE!

Northrop Grumman Corp. has developed Skyguard, a high-power laser system, to defend against air-based threats such as short-range ballistic missiles and rockets, artillery and mortars.

Reuters: “Star Wars” agency helps Israel on rocket threat

The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency has begun working with Israel to help find ways to counter enemy rockets, a much shorter-range threat than the “Star Wars” mission to block ballistic missiles for which is it known, the head of the agency said on Tuesday.

“We have been working with the Israelis … as they go through with development of their own indigenous capabilities for that threat,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering told reporters after a speech at a missile-defense conference here.

“That is not mature. That is still in development,” he said of the effort to defeat something he likened to mortar or artillery fire.

Missile Threat from the Claremont Institute has the history of the Israeli-American collaboration on the Tactical High Energy Laser System - THEL.

The Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) is a joint project of the United States and Israel designed to destroy short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, ground- and air-launched rockets, unmanned aerial vehicles, mortar shells, and artillery projectiles. It consists of an advanced radar that detects and tracks incoming rockets, and a high-energy laser beam that destroys them.

Since the early 1980s, Israel has faced a constant threat from Hezbollah guerillas along its northern border. During eighteen years of fighting, the guerrillas wreaked havoc by firing numerous small, unguided Katyusha rockets at Israeli towns. The rockets were fast and low-flying and caused considerable damage. Hezbollah’s attacks were so numerous that Israel could not use interceptor missiles. In addition, since the Katyushas flew on ballistic trajectories and landed on Israeli towns unless completely destroyed, Israel could not deploy advanced machine guns such as those used by U.S. Navy ships against low-flying cruise missiles.

In 1995, the U.S. and Israel decided to address the growing problem of low-flying missiles by developing a high energy laser. The idea was to build a weapons system that could detect and eliminate threats at the speed of light while maintaining a low per-kill cost. Since Hezbollah was launching thousands of rockets, the defense system had to be capable of handling a large volume of attacks. In February 1996, the prototype U.S. high energy laser, known as Nautilus, destroyed a short-range rocket at a test site in New Mexico. It was the first time that a laser had ever destroyed a ballistic missile.

The Arrow anti-missile system is already deployed in Israel.

An Arrow 2 launch

Missile Defense will be of increasing importance in protecting from strategic and tactical nuclear and conventional missiles. Deployment of a number of systems in the next few years will make Ronald Reagan’s vision of a missile shield for the United States and battlefield theaters a reality.

President Reagan Addresses the Nation from the oval office on National Security (Strategic Defense Initiative speech) March 23, 1983.

Stay tuned…..

Previous:

Missile Defense Watch: “Concept of Operations” To Be Done by Fall

Missile Defense Watch: Vandenberg Launches Minuteman III

Missile Defense Watch: White Sands THAAD Test - ” This Is Phenomenal”

Missile Defense Watch: THAAD Successfully Intercepts Live Target

Backdropped by a poster of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, United Nations peacekeepers from France sit atop their armoured personnel carrier in the outskirts of the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006. The international community was scrambling Tuesday to put together a fortified U.N. peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces began a pullout that many fear could create a dangerous vacuum.

MEMRI TV: Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah: The Disarmament of Hizbullah Should Not Be Discussed Now

Following are excerpts from a speech delivered by Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, which aired on Al-Manar TV on August 14, 2006:

Hassan Nasrallah: We are facing a strategic and historic victory. This is no exaggeration. This is a victory for Lebanon - all of Lebanon - for the resistance, and for the entire Islamic nation.

Powerline has the video here.

And Flap is embedding the video below:

Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, had better re-read the text of the United Nations Security Council Resoultion 1701 that was adopted last Friday.

The text is here.

Note well:

OP3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;

OP8. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:

full respect for the Blue Line by both parties,

security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area,

full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state,

no foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government,

no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government,

provision to the United Nations of all remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israels possession;

Flap somehow thinks this matter will either end up at the United Nations Security Council door within a few weeks or the Israelis will be leafleting the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL to leave or be bombed.

If the international community wants Israel to stand down and be a reasonable state then they must be willing to enforce UNSC resolutions - with force, if need be.

Stay tuned…..

Previous:

Israel at War Watch: The Arab Street Rejoices - Mocks Israel And United States

Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu - Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack

Tehran against Israel throughout war

AP: Iran, Syria Praise Hezbollah, Mock U.S.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that Hezbollah has “hoisted the banner of victory” over Israel and toppled U.S.-led plans for the Middle East. Hezbollah’s main backers Iran and Syria struck nearly identical tones a day after a cease-fire took effect in Lebanon: heaping praise on the guerrillas as perceived victors for the Islamic world and claiming that Western influence in the region was dealt a serious blow.

“God’s promises have come true,” Ahmadinejad told a huge crowd in Arbadil in northwestern Iran. “On one side, it’s corrupt powers of the criminal U.S. and Britain and the Zionists … with modern bombs and planes. And on the other side is a group of pious youth relying on God.”

Iranian bloviations but now the world’s attention now turns towards Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons program.

In Damascus, Syrian President Syrian President Bashar Assad said Washington’s plans for the Middle East were turned into “an illusion” by Hezbollah’s resistance to the Israeli military during the 34-day conflict.

Israel “was defeated” and Hezbollah “hoisted the banner of victory,” Ahmadinejad told the crowd, including many people waving yellow Hezbollah banners and Iranian flags.

Ahmadinejad drew cheers when he said Hezbollah foiled what he called the plans of Washington and its allies “to create the so-called new Middle East.”

“The people of the region are also after the new Middle East, but a Middle East that is free from U.S. and British domination,” he said.

Oh, a Middle East dominated by the Iranian Mullahs and Muslim theocracy. A Middle East that forms by Shiite and Sunni theocracies and dedicated to the destruction of Israel.

And what kind of threat does Shiite Iran coveting nuclear weapons pose to the West and the United States?

A MAJOR ONE

Hezbollah demonstration in Tehran

However, the world of reality is more than the braggard “Arab Street.”

The cease-fire is only a few days old and if there is no compliance with United Nations resolutions 1701 or 1559, Flap expects Israel with a new Prime Minister to be at war with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran again - and in short order.

The next time the Mullahs may only rejoice their martyrs for Allah.

Stay tuned…….

Previous:

Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu - Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s former Prime Minister and leader of Israel’s opposition Likud party, gestures during his interview with the Associated Press in London, Tuesday Aug. 8, 2006. Netanyahu said Europe must accept unpleasant realities in the Middle East, arguing Tuesday that Israel is merely the first target in a worldwide terrorism campaign waged by Islamic militants.

Powerline: Half hour with Benjamin Netanyahu

Netanyahu stated categorically that Hezbollah will not disarm itself and that the forces sent into south Lebanon under the cease-fire agreement will not disarm Hezbollah. In this connection, I asked the former Prime Minister whether he viewed Israel as bound by the cease-fire agreement to wait for the next attack (at the time of Hezbollah’s and Iran’s choosing) or whether Israel is free to act if (when) it finds that Hezbollah has not disarmed and that the international force and the Lebanese army are not taking effective action. Netanyahu replied that the cease-fire agreement permits Israel to take defensive action to protect itself. He acknowledged that there can be much debate over what that means, but (as I understood his answer) the concept does not necessarily preclude preemptive action.

The cease-fire looks short-lived…..

Ray Patnaude writes: Thanks for the kind words about my illustration for Glenn’s article today. That image, like all illustrations at TCS Daily are done by me- Ray Patnaude, Art Director for TCS (except when I am on vacation and such). I’m glad you liked it, it was a fun challenge to try to deliberately do *really*, comically bad Photoshop, leaving stray pixels everywhere, and sloppy cutout lines. I am particularly proud of the checkered Photoshop background visible behind some replicated smoke. And of course Mickey’s pose perfectly mocks Professional House-Got-Knocked-Down Woman’s.

TCS: Don’t Trust If They Won’t Verify

Once again, fake news is in the news, as it turns out that many moving stories of carnage in Lebanon were not only moving, but, well, fake. This raises major questions about the future of the news business, and offers a significant threat to free expression. As Tim Rutten observed in the Los Angeles Times.

Trust but verify is true in nuclear negotiations and journalism.

President Reagan’s words were never more true:

It’s still trust but verify. It’s still play, but cut the cards. It’s still watch closely. And don’t be afraid to see what you see.

Flap is pleased that the blogosphere is keeping the media manipulators, governments,terrorists and the propagandists honest.