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Readers: Please Vote in Flap’s January 2008 GOP Presidential Poll

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NEWSWEEK Poll

Jan. 17-18, 2007. Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.

Patrick Ruffini slaps down Newsweek magazine’s latest presidential poll.

Newsweek’s Results:

Newsweek shows Hillary leading John McCain by 1 and trailing Rudy Giuliani by 1. John Edwards’ advantage over McCain and Giuliani is 5 and 3 points respectively. Obama leads McCain by 2 and trails Giuliani by 2.

In polling against Hillary, both leading Republicans capture more of their base than any Democrat does their base, while generally getting more of the independent vote. So, the Party breakdown of registered voters in this poll comes as no surprise:

Republican 26%

Democrat 37%

Independent 33%

No party/Not interested 2%

Other party *

Don’t know 2%

That’s right, the poll is +11D, and there are suddenly 30% less Republicans than there were last November.

The Clinton Media machine is at work already. Flap knows it will be a long two years before the presidential election and at this time the internals of polls best be highlighted rather than covered up.

So, is the Newsweek poll accurate?

NO WAY

Ruffini provides the corrected totals (results which by the way are consistent with other national polls):

How would these results look if the responses were re-weighted to reflect the makeup of the electorate in 2006, an overwhelmingly Democratic year?

Giuliani 51.8% – Clinton 44.6%
McCain 50.5% – Clinton 45.2%

Giuliani 50.6% – Obama 42.5%
McCain 47.4% – Obama 44.4%

Giuliani 49.3% – Edwards 45.2%
McCain 47.2% – Edwards 45.9%

A little different, wouldn’t you say?

Amazing?

There should be NO MORE Newsweek spin/manipulation of polling data to help the Clintons or any other candidate. Just report the poll and release the internals readily available online.

This isn’t the Washington Post and the days of the MSM before the internet. Get real…….

Stay tuned………


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5 Responses to “President 2008 Watch: Newsweek Poll – Giuliani and McCain Beating Hillary ET Al?”
  1. Argo says:

    Here’s another attempt at manipulation by the MSM that requires exposure:

    On MTP this morning, Tim Russert repeatedly cited poll results that would suggest Americans, by a 2-to-1 margin, want us out to withdraw from Iraq now; regardless the consequences.

    He put up on the screen a question from an NBC/WSJ poll that asked, “If resolution against more troops, should President Bush proceed?”

    Are those responding to this poll told by the pollster, or is it assumed they understand that the president has the constitutional right to wage war as he sees fit once Congress has given him the authorization?

    Do they understand that Congress’s only means of influencing or altering the decisions/course of action by the president is to exert their power of the purse, and cut off funding for the troops and their mission to help stabilize Iraq as a sovereign nation that can govern, sustain, and defend itself, and remain and ally in the broader war on radical Islamism?

    Do they understand that this “resolution”, would be non-binding; nothing more than a symbolic gesture, an attempt to placate the Democratic party’s rabid, anti-war, left-wing base? That the Democrats have no intention of actually cutting off funding, as it would be politically suicidal, killing any hopes of recapturing the White House in 2009?

    While the MSM is committed to portraying the American people as overwhelmingly supportive of an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, and in fierce opposition to any increase in troop levels, a more accurate, truer reflection of the sentiment in our country can be found in three questions posed in a recent ABC/WaPo poll.

    6. Do you think increasing the number of U.S. military forces in Iraq will (end the war more quickly), (make the war last longer), or not make much difference in the length of the war?

    End war more quickly 29%
    Make war last longer 19%
    Not make much difference 48%

    11. Do you think (the United States must win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without the United States winning the war in Iraq?)

    US must win war in Iraq for success 45%
    Can be a success without US winning war in Iraq 47%

    12. Do you think Bush’s plan makes the United States more likely to (win) the war in Iraq, more likely to (lose) the war in Iraq, or won’t it make much difference in the outcome?

    Win 36%
    Lose 10%

    Won’t make much difference 53%

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_011107.htm

  2. GT says:

    It’s not a good idea to reweight samples the way you do. The number of self-declared republicans and democrats varies a lot over time. In 20044 it was liberals who kept claiming that the polls overweighed Republicans. Pollster.com has several posts on this topic.

    The Newsweek poll results are very bad for the GOP but they are in line with several other major polls released recently, as a quick look at pollingreport.com shows.

  3. Flap says:

    GT,

    The Newsweek poll is CRAP and a blatant attempt to spin for Hillary – as you are doing.

    Take a look at the latest Angus Reid poll.

  4. GT says:

    The latest ABC/WaPo poll is even more favorable to the Dems (and to Hillary) than the Newsweek poll.

    Flap, I know how much you want to believe otherwise but the polls are the symptom, not the cause. I too wanted to believe the 2004 polls showing Bush winning were wrong. But they weren’t.Just as the 2006 polls showing the Dems winning were correct.

    The other day Novak reported that GOP insiders believe 2008 will be even worse than 2006. Hiding won’t make it go away.

  5. Flap says:

    The reweighted Newsweek Poll demonstrates the weakness of the Democrat Presidential candidates as shown in the latest Angus Reid Global Monitor Poll which shows Giuliani and McCain kicking Hillary’s ass.

    It is early and the polls will shift but to think the GOP will not heed Bob Novak’s advice is a little naive.

    The GOP will have to work to retain the White House.

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