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Daily Kos Watch: Supporting the Iraqi Resistance
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Giuliani Notes: California Dreamin’ and Campaign Cash
Mayor Rudy Giuliani addressing the press after speaking before the California GOP, February 10, 2007. Photo by Flap.
The Politico: Rudy Woos K St, Sets Major DC Funder
As I reported earlier this week, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani met with a few hundred Washington movers and shakers yesterday to make his pitch. There were actually two events, both at the Hotel Washington. The first, I’m told by a lobbyist who attended, was for major donors. The second was filled with “members of the PAC community,” as my source put it. Some who showed were already on board, others wanted to kick the tires.
Giuliani gave a stump speech, but did weave in some politics. He talked about Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but also mentioned the prospect that other, larger states could move up their primaries — something Hizzoner’s advisers think would aid his candidacy. Having spent considerable time in California recently, Giuliani noted that it’s been 40 years since the mega-state had a primary that mattered (RFK vs. Clean for Gene in ’68).
Giuliani also put in a plug for what will be one of his first major Beltway fundraising events. I’m told that Peter Terpulek will host the soiree at his Chevy Chase home on March 22. A top lobbyist with the American Continental Group, Turpulek was a Bush Pioneer in 2000 who was rewarded with the ambassadorship to Luxembourg.
California Dreamin’ and fifty-five electoral votes in play for the GOP.
Rudy will be in California frequently.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gestures during his address at the California Republican Party convention in Sacramento, Calif., Saturday, Feb. 10, 2007. Giuliani’s remarks touched topics from health care, to crime, to terrorism to Iraq, in a speech laden with references to a possible bid for president.
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Giuliani Notes: CPAC – Rudy Will Speak on Friday
Mayor Giuliani will be addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday according to the Politico.
It had previously been reported that Rudy and McCain would be skipping the meeting.
Flap doesn’t know about McCain.
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Giuliani Notes: Elon University Poll Has Rudy Leading GOP Field
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani hold an edge among prospective candidates for the White House in five southeastern states, where most voters remain undecided, according to a poll released Saturday by Elon University.
In the GOP field, 31 percent of respondents who identified themselves as Republicans said it was too early to tell, while 25 percent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
Giuliani had the support of 21 percent of those polled, while Sen. John McCain of Arizona had 16 percent and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts got 3 percent.
Bacot said the GOP race seemed more open “since none of the candidates has a commanding lead.”
The poll was conducted Feb. 18-22 by the Elon University Institute for Politics and Public Affairs, which surveyed 719 residents in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percent.
Rudy leads McCain by 5 and Mitt Romney is at 3 per cent.
Romney’s strategy to appeal to southern conservative voters seems to have had little effect.
And McCain’s organization in South Carolina does not provide a lead.
Stay tuned……..Flap will post more of the poll’s details when they are released.
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Dentistry Today: The Ultreo – Ultrasound Toothbrush
Ultreo – the ultrasound toothbrush (via Engadget)
Flap saw some studies recently (at the ADA in October 2006) that suggest better cleaning with ultrasound toothbrushes.
Will they be clinically significant? And worth the bucks?
Flap says save the money for a dental check-up, watch your sugar intake, brush regularly (yes, with the manual brush) and use dental floss.
But, if yo have the $$$$ to try……why not?
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President 2008 Watch: Christian Right Labors for Redemptive ’08 Conservative
Grover Norquist of the Americans for Tax Reform
New York Times: Christian Right Labors to Find ’08 Candidate
A group of influential Christian conservatives and their allies emerged from a private meeting at a Florida resort this month dissatisfied with the Republican presidential field and uncertain where to turn.
The event was a meeting of the Council for National Policy, a secretive club whose few hundred members include Dr. James C. Dobson of Focus on the Family, the Rev. Jerry Falwell of Liberty University and Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. Although little known outside the conservative movement, the council has become a pivotal stop for Republican presidential primary hopefuls, including George W. Bush on the eve of his 1999 primary campaign.
When Rudy Giuliani wraps up the GOP nomination, the KINGMAKERS of the Evangelical Christian Right MIGHT turn to a third party candidate.
The only question is how marginalized and irrelevant will they become. No GOP Senator, Governor or Congressman will foresake their political career to become a GOP spoiler in ’08.
Flap’s bet is that these folks will splinter and divide. Some will covertly support Giuliani and some will support the third party candidate.
Will it matter in the Electoral College of Rudy vs. Hillary?
Probably only in the Red States that are already going GOP against Hillary.
But, guess what? In those states it is winner take all and the electoral votes will go to Rudy in any case.
But, if Rudy were to choose former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as Vice President, they might find an excuse to support/vote for the “Redemptive SINNER.”
James Dobson of Focus on the Family on John McCain: “I pray that we don’t get stuck with himâ€
So, what will Norquist, Weyrich, Dobson, Falwell, Robertson’s role be in the presidential campaign of 2008?
To drive East and West Coast center-left independent voters to the GOP, of course……
Jerry Falwell – One of the KINGMAKERS of the Christian Right
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy
John McCain Watch: James Dobson – Cannot Support John McCain Under ANY Circumstances
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Giuliani Notes: Cook Political Report and RT Strategies Poll
Cook Political Report and RT Strategies
Rudy Giuliani 32%
John McCain 23%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 10%
George Pataki 4%
Sam Brownback 2%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Tommy Thompson 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%Another national poll showing the same ol’ result – Rudy Wins.
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy vs. Hillary by the Electoral Numbers
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani autographs a poster at the World Ag Expo, Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007, in Tulare, Calif. Giuliani toured the expo on his latest stop in a trek through California.
Michael Barone U.S. News: Hillary Vs. Rudy
They’re leading in polls for their parties’ nominations, and so I think we have to regard this as the likeliest pairing in the 2008 presidential race, at least for now. Last July, pollster Jay Leve of SurveyUSA did surveys in 50 states and the District of Columbia of several pairings of candidates. You can see the electoral vote results with a few clicks. They show Giuliani ahead of Clinton 354 to 184. I would guess it would be somewhat closer now, and both candidates carried several states by statistically insignificant margins. Premium subscribers can get access to the percentage results in each state and to the demographic breakdown in each state; there are enough respondents to make the latter statistically significant, with the usual caution that the margin of error is significantly greater for subgroups than for the whole state.
I have examined these numbers before in this blog but decided to give them another look.
Barone has an interesting analysis using old data. But, his conclusions are common sense:
Rudy beats Hillary by putting the East and California in play
Notwithstanding any gaffes by Rudy or a sudden shift of the Democrat Party to nominate Obama, the most likely scenario is that Hillary loses in the electoral college either by a lot or by enough – more than Bush win or Kerry loss in 2004.
Barone noted that Rudy was most weak in the Central Valley in California. Note where Hizzoner was last week campaigning: the Central Valley of California.
California has a winner take all primary by congressional district system. Look for the Mayor to campaign hard in most of them and spend many of his primary campaign dollars in media in the many more rural California counties – gearing up for the general election push for 55 electoral votes.
Target states for the Giuliani campaign will be these:
1. California – 55
2. Florida – 27
3. Pennsylvania – 21
4. New York – 31
5. New Jersey – 15
The population of the states vis a vis their electoral college vote ranking is here.
Note that these are BIG media states. A reason why fund raising will be increasingly important to reach the media markets with a saturation of television and radio ads.
Barone’s conclusions:
Upshot: Democrats have some small cause for satisfaction here. Rudy is clearly not as heavily backed as Bush, and voters show more sign of appreciating Hillary’s long southern sojourn than many of us thought. But at best for the Democrats, this puts Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia into play (20 electoral votes) and possibly Virginia (13 electoral votes), while leaving North Carolina and Georgia (30 electoral votes) still out of reach. And Rudy is at least as strong in Florida (27 electoral votes) as Bush was in ’04.
National upshot: Rudy’s electoral vote position against Hillary is much stronger than Bush’s against Kerry. Rudy puts almost the whole East into play and is significantly stronger in several target states in the Midwest and West. Hillary puts some states into play in the South but with many fewer electoral votes than Rudy does elsewhere. Even if you assume that Hillary is stronger against Rudy today than she was in July, the pairing does place the Republicans in a stronger position than Bush was in ’04.
So, the GOP has REAL opportunities to retain the White House with Giuliani. Is it time to annoint Rudy the nominee and move on to fund raising for the general election against Hillary Clinton?
Apparently ……
Previous:Rudy Giuliani Watch: New York Times Tells Rudy How to Campaign
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Visits with South Carolina Firefighters
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy Opts Out of Religious Broadcasters Meeting
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Evangelical Richard Land Strikes Back at Rudy
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Latest Fox News Poll Shows Rudy with Double Digit Lead Over McCain
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Not Confident Iraq War Will Turn Around
Rudy Giuliani Watch: May 3 Debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Yes, I’m Running
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Day By Day by Chris Muir February 24, 2007