Washington Post: Blacks Shift To Obama, Poll Finds
In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.
The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.
If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, or Ron Paul), for whom would you vote? (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS)
NET LEANED VOTE: 2/25/07 1/19/07 12/11/06 Rudy Giuliani 44 34 34 John McCain 21 27 26 Newt Gingrich 15 9 12 Mitt Romney 4 9 5 Chuck Hagel 1 * * Tommy Thompson 2 1 2 Mike Huckabee 2 1 * Duncan Hunter * * 1 George Pataki 1 2 3 Sam Brownback 1 1 1 Tom Tancredo * 1 * Jim Gilmore * 1 NA Ron Paul 1 1 NA Other (vol.) * * * None of these (vol.) 2 2 6 Would not vote (vol.) 1 1 * No opinion 4 9 9
Since January and Rudy’s announcement of presidential candidacy the first week of February, he has absolutely BURIED the competition.
Rudy’s numbers in this poll (with Newt Gingrich included) have increased 10 percentage points from January to February. John McCain has decreased 6 points and Mitt Romney 5 percentage points during the same time period.
Ron Paul fans: Ron continues at 1% but is considered in this poll.
Now, the next poll is directed to Newt Gingrich supporters:
(ASKED OF GINGRICH SUPPORTERS) If Gingrich does not run,
for whom would you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE IF NO GINGRICH 2/25/07 Rudy Giuliani 53 John McCain 23 Mitt Romney 5 Chuck Hagel 1 Tommy Thompson 2 Mike Huckabee 2 Duncan Hunter * George Pataki 1 Sam Brownback 2 Tom Tancredo 1 Jim Gilmore * Ron Paul 1 Other (vol.) * None of these (vol.) 2 Would not vote (vol.) 1 No opinion 5
So, if Newt does not run, Rudy wins a majority of support from Gingrich fans by a whopping 53%. Poor Mitt Romney is buried at 5 %. McCain is at 23%. Again, Ron Paul polls 1%.
Let’s look at attribute ratings:
|Attribute||Giuliani||McCain||Romney||All||Any 2||None||No Op.|
|is the strongest leader||63||26||5||*||1||1||4|
|best understands the problems of people like you||51||27||8||*||*||6||8|
|has the best experience to be president||38||47||6||1||1||2||4|
|is the most inspiring||65||21||6||*||1||3||4|
|has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2008||55||34||4||*||*||1||5|
|is closest to you on the issues||44||29||12||*||*||2||12|
Again, except for one category Giuliani destroys McCain and Romney.
Ok, let’s look at Abortion and Gay Civil Unions:
(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Giuliani has been a supporter of legal abortion and gay civil unions. Does this make you (more likely) to vote for him for the Republican nomination for president, (less likely), or doesn’t it make a difference in your vote?
|Date||More||Less||Does Not Make a difference||No opinion|
Another question along these lines:(IF LESS LIKELY, previous question) Given his position on abortion and gay civil unions,
is there a chance you’d vote for Giuliani for the Republican nomination for president, or no chance?
|Date||Chance||No chance||No opin.|
And remember this was asked of GOP Leaning voters and not Democrats or Independents.But, why does Rudy continue to poll well despite the abortion numbers?
Because abortion is not at the forefront of issues facing America and although important lacks the weight of the Iraq War and terrorism.
Hence, this poll:
(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) What’s the single most important issue to you in your choice for the Republican candidate for president?
2/25/07 Terrorism/security 18 War in Iraq 17 Economy/jobs 15 Health care 6 Honesty 6 Someone I trust 4 Strong leadership 4 Abortion 3 Immigration 3 Education 3 Morals/family values 3 Foreign policy 2 The right experience * Electability/best chance to win in November 0 Other 11 No opinion 5
Note where abortion is – 8th from the top.
Look what is number 1: Terrorism/Security – A Giuliani strength.
Flap pontificated earlier today that Rudy Giuliani WILL BE the GOP Nominee.
There is nothing in this poll that would pursuade him otherwise.
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