The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee will hold a conference call today with bloggers to discuss the state of the 2008 Presidential race.
Ed Goeas – Pollster
Brent Seaborn – Director of Strategy
State of the Race:
Brian: Good month or six weeks, growth has been interesting. MSM and talking heads holding numbers down initially. Alot of same outlets now have switched to – when they find out what he is about then voters will switch. Campaign looking at these poll numbers. Ballot lead among conservatives. Rudy is the plurality candidate – even among those voters who are very conservative and correctly identify Rudy as a liberal or moderate candidate on social issues.
Ed: general numbers 4 national surveys. 14 point lead in multicandidate race. Interesting data – Gallup – image rating fav vs unfav. Rudy at 64-21 a 3:1 ratio and 78-10 among GOP voters. Campaign consistent with internal polls -50% favorable is strongly favorable. Increasingly job as Mayor being mentioned instead of 9/11.
Brent: Look at social issues vs fiscal issues
Ed: strong awareness of voters as center-right in fiscal issues and center-left on social issues.
Running with a large segment in the middle.
Brent: good separation in the numbers between social and fiscal issues.
Ed: Multi-dimensional approach by the voters. the overlay is a very positive image of the Mayor.
Ankle Biting Pundits (Bull Dog pundit): for Brent 1999 Roe v. Wade
Brent: Policy – doesn’t know if he is correct to answer. To Maria….outlined Mayor’s pro-choice position but would not attempt to answer the Mayor’s position legally.
American Spectator: Details of polling identifying Rudy as center-left.
Brent: Not going to share internal data
Ed: Look at Mayor’s ideology in general sense….hedging……
1. Where does he stand on McCain Feingold?
2. Polling – Isn’t polling soft? and do you think trends will hold up?
Whole voter cycle accelerated; primary schedule moved up. Well defined candidates with almost 100 % name ID.
Polling may flip around a couple of times.
Gary Gross: Question for Ed
Who is going to fight the GWOT – bigger issue than social issues? Seeing this in polling?
Ed: Yes also seeing this in vs. Hillary Clinton. Trap of seeing what other side generalizes about social conservatives. Voters are balancing.
Accuracy of state polling, American Research Group, 10 points down in Florida.
Ed: State by State polling. Those states focusing earlier and small sample size. Modeling on top of survey research – don’t want national survery results to outweigh state results – may skew national data. 70% favorable and strongly favorable 50% of that number or 35 % of the numbers are strongly favorable of the Mayor’s candidacy.
In conclusion: Maria Comella
The call was a first attempt to reach out to the blogosphere but the Giuliani campaign was NOT ready to answer policy questions.
Ed and Brent gave short attention to substantive questions about Roe v. Wade and McCain- Feingold.
The bloggers wanted MEAT and got mashed potatoes.
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