Former New York City mayor and presidential contender Rudy Giuliani kisses a baby while visiting supporters and customers at the Fat Lady Restaurant in Oakland, Calif., Friday, March 23, 2007. Giuliani also gave a brief news conference.

Giuliani woos Oakland GOP in quick visit

Frontrunning 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani pressed the flesh, took questions and — yes — even kissed a baby at a restaurant here Friday, underscoring how even Democratic strongholds won’t be ignored by the GOP in this primary race.

The former New York City mayor arrived promptly at 3 p.m. at the Fat Lady near Jack London Square, a restaurant and bar popular with downtown business people and attorneys — the sort of fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republicans who make the Bay Area such a happy hunting ground for the pro-choice, pro-gay-rights Giuliani.

“I’ll buy you a beer, Rudy,” a patron called as Giuliani made his way through scores of people who’d packed the small restaurant; at the rear, he ducked into the men’s room to don a red, white and blue tie. “I’m so glad you’re running~,” another patron told him as he emerged.

Outside, Giuliani told reporters the House’s vote Friday to tie almost $100 billion in Iraq war and other spending to a timetable for a 2008 pullout is “a big mistake. … You don’t let your enemies know what you’re going to do.”

On Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Peter Pace’s recent statement that homosexuality is “immoral,” Giuliani said, “Morality is judged between you and God,” and as a Catholic he hews to Jesus’ wisdom in decreeing, “Let he who is without sin, cast the first stone.”

On immigration, he said security is key — “We’ve got to know everybody who’s in the United States” — and called for a system in which all immigrants are registered, photographed and issued tamperproof identification.

But, why is Rudy campaigning in Alameda County where only 17 per cent are registered Republicans? The California GOP selection rules that apportion nominating delegates by Congressional District and…….

Rudy is planning ahead to the general election when he hopes to be the first GOP Presidential candidate since 1988 to carry California.

Only about 17 percent of Alameda County’s registered voters are Republicans, and only about 7 percent of Oakland’s. But California’s Republican presidential primary is no longer a statewide winner-take all; instead, the GOP presidential candidate with the most votes in each congressional district will get that district’s delegates.

Hence Giuliani’s interest in pitching woo somewhere like Oakland: In a way, he gets more bang for his buck here. Carrying a majority of the 31,000 Republicans in Democrat Barbara Lee’s 9th Congressional District would win him three delegates, the same as winning some other, more GOP-heavy district.

Hizzoner continues his California campaign swing:

He had a fundraiser Friday night in San Francisco and has fundraisers scheduled for Saturday morning in Monterey, Saturday afternoon in Newport Beach and Sunday near Santa Barbara.

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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2008 Race Rankings: Giuliani’s In The Lead

The Hotline’s Marc Ambinder and NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd will collaborate on race rankings until we don’t.

We’ve got a new No. 1 this week, and it reflects several realities. For one thing, there’s a deep hunger on the Republican side for a candidate who can rebrand the party after seven-plus years of President Bush. Also, the issue stuff just doesn’t seem to be hurting Rudy Giuliani yet, and we can’t help but think that the early predictions of his doom were overstated.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.

1. Rudy Giuliani Last Ranking: 2

There are three distinct camps among those Republicans who don’t think Giuliani will win the nomination: the McCain camp, the Huckabee camp and the Arlington camp. The McCain camp believes questions about Giuliani’s business practices and his personal character will disqualify him, and that his liberal positions on issues will be the coup de grace. The MSM is mostly in this camp. The Huckabee camp believes Giuliani is objectively too liberal to be the nominee and will not vote for him. The Arlington camp doesn’t know whether Giuliani will be elected but worries — for the sake of its organizations’ bottom lines — how a social liberal would affect the power and influence of organized conservative interests. If the election were held tomorrow, Giuliani would win. He doesn’t have McCain’s organizational strength, money, or endorsements, but he has a solid and growing lead in national polls. And so far, he’s repelled some fairly devastating attacks (like the notion that he does not speak to his son).
Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $3 million. Fundraising ranking: 3.

*****

Hotline is merely parroting the polls that show Rudy in firm control, particularly in states that vote on Super Duper Tuesday, February 5, 2008.

Hizzoner does not have to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina to be a viable candidate on February 5th. But, today, he EVEN contends in these states.

Watch the fundraising numbers this next week.

If McCain’s numbers are NOT good, no matter what spin his campaign churns, the race may be over for him.

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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Design Review: Rudy Giuliani for President

The oddest thing about this homepage is the layout. For some reason the page is falling out of the right hand side. All content is within the internal boundary of the site except the action items and the store, which appear to be forced outside by bad coding, but (as noted above) is actually intended. This is such an odd presentation that I have to think it was pushed out the door just a bit before it was ready. Low marks for the Rudy2008 design at this point.

Yawn…..and the site is boring……..

Redo…..

Others think it is an improvement.

Flap’s answer – barely.

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The Rudy Giuliani Files

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From Brent Seaborn, the Giuliani campaign’s Director of Strategy:

To:	Team Rudy
From:	Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:	March 22, 2007
RE:	Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength and Conservative Voter Support

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Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity and Colmes.Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.

Lead In Every Major Media Polls Over Nearest Republican Opponent Before and After February 5th

Organization* Before 2/5 After 2/5 Difference Gallup 4 24 20 Washington Post ABC 7 23 16 Fox News 12 20 8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 5 14 9 CNN 6 16 10 Time -4 14 18 Newsweek 4 25 21 Average 5 19 14

The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.

Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.

According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” – yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.

After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.

About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.

Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.

The fact is – most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).

There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.

Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.

What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.

As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is – cheap and political.

We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.

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Gallup Poll (1/12-1/14; 3/2-3/4)
Washington Post/ABC Poll (1/16-1/19; 2/22-2/25)
Fox News Poll (1/30-1/31; 2/27-2/28)
CNN Poll (1/19-1/21; 3/9-3/11)
Time Poll (1/22-1/23; 2/23-2/26)
Newsweek Poll (1/24-1/25; 2/28-3/1)

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This memo parrots much of the information posted here as a result of a blogger conference call a few weeks ago.

Rudy is leading in the polls.

Next stop – how is the fundraising doing?

Stay tuned……..

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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Michael Barone Looks at the Polls

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Part IV – The IAFF Forum

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Part III

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Redux

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Blogger Conference Call March 12, 2007 With Ed Goeas and Brent Seaborn

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighter’s Union Flap

Rudy Giuliani Watch: California Dreamin’ – Rudy Leads McCain By Double Digits in Survey USA Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 44% McCain 20% Gingrich 9% Romney 8% in Latest Gallup Poll

The Rudy Giuliani Files

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