Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

From Brent Seaborn, the Giuliani campaign’s Director of Strategy:

To:	Team Rudy
From:	Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:	March 22, 2007
RE:	Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength and Conservative Voter Support

---

Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity and Colmes.Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.

Lead In Every Major Media Polls Over Nearest Republican Opponent Before and After February 5th

Organization* Before 2/5 After 2/5 Difference Gallup 4 24 20 Washington Post ABC 7 23 16 Fox News 12 20 8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 5 14 9 CNN 6 16 10 Time -4 14 18 Newsweek 4 25 21 Average 5 19 14

The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.

Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.

According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” – yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.

After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.

About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.

Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.

The fact is – most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).

There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.

Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.

What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.

As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is – cheap and political.

We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.

---

Gallup Poll (1/12-1/14; 3/2-3/4)
Washington Post/ABC Poll (1/16-1/19; 2/22-2/25)
Fox News Poll (1/30-1/31; 2/27-2/28)
CNN Poll (1/19-1/21; 3/9-3/11)
Time Poll (1/22-1/23; 2/23-2/26)
Newsweek Poll (1/24-1/25; 2/28-3/1)

********

This memo parrots much of the information posted here as a result of a blogger conference call a few weeks ago.

Rudy is leading in the polls.

Next stop – how is the fundraising doing?

Stay tuned……..

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Michael Barone Looks at the Polls

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Part IV – The IAFF Forum

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Part III

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighters Flap Redux

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Blogger Conference Call March 12, 2007 With Ed Goeas and Brent Seaborn

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Firefighter’s Union Flap

Rudy Giuliani Watch: California Dreamin’ – Rudy Leads McCain By Double Digits in Survey USA Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 44% McCain 20% Gingrich 9% Romney 8% in Latest Gallup Poll

The Rudy Giuliani Files

---

Technorati Tags: RudyGiuliani

Andrés Martinez, left, resigned as Los Angeles Times editorial page editor, saying he had been undermined by his publisher, David Hiller.

New York Times: Los Angeles Times Editorial Page Chief Quits

Andrés Martinez, the editorial page editor of The Los Angeles Times, resigned yesterday, saying he had been undermined by his publisher over what Mr. Martinez described as a “perception of a conflict of interest.”

Mr. Martinez had helped select Brian Grazer, a Hollywood producer, as guest editor of a special edition of this Sunday’s opinion section, called Current. The paper reported yesterday that Mr. Martinez is in a romantic relationship with Kelly Mullens, a senior executive at the public relations firm that represents Mr. Grazer’s production company.

The publisher, David Hiller, initially said he did not see a conflict, only the appearance of a conflict that could be handled with an editor’s note disclosing the relationship, said James O’Shea, the paper’s editor. But Mr. Hiller changed his mind yesterday after several staff members expressed their concern to Mr. O’Shea, and Mr. O’Shea spoke with Mr. Hiller. Yesterday, Mr. Hiller canceled the special edition.

In a statement last night, Mr. Hiller said that “a potential conflict of interest had emerged” over Mr. Martinez’s relationship with Ms. Mullens. “We believe that this relationship did not influence the selection of Brian as guest editor,” he said. “Nonetheless, in order to avoid even the appearance of conflict, we felt the best course of action was not to publish the section.”

When informed of the decision, Mr. Martinez resigned and took the unusual step of announcing his decision on a blog on the paper’s Web site. In a defiant note, he wrote that the paper had overreacted, that Mr. Grazer and Ms. Mullens “did nothing wrong” and that Mr. Hiller’s decision made his tenure “untenable.”

There is the story and the FLAP which is a precis from yesterday’s post.

Now, Andres Martinez STRIKES BACK.

He blames not himself for an ethical gaffe but newsroom reporters who tattle-tailed. These reporters (and Martinez does name names) want the newsroom to influence the editorial pages.

Go figure.

Hell, the Los Angeles Times news stories have been biased and opinionated for years.

The difference here?

Someone from Spring Street finally spills the beans – so to speak.

Hugh Hewitt refers to the HYPOCRISY of former Los Angeles Times Editor, John Carroll.

Patterico adds his insight.

Flap smiles with the vindicative countenance of a pseudo-journalist.

Indeed.

Previous:

Los Angeles Times Watch: Andres Martinez Quits Over GrazerGate FLAP

---

Technorati Tags: LosAngelesTimes, AndresMartinez, BrianGlazer, KellyMullens

AP: Iran nabs British sailors in Iraq waters

Iranian naval vessels seized 15 British sailors in Iraqi waters on Friday, the Ministry of Defense said.

The British Navy personnel were “engaged in routine boarding operations of merchant shipping in Iraqi territorial waters,” and had completed a ship inspection when they were accosted by Iranian vessels, the ministry said.

“We are urgently pursuing this matter with the Iranian authorities at the highest level and … the Iranian ambassador has been summoned to the Foreign Office,” the ministry said.

A Pentagon official said the Britons were in two inflatable boats from the frigate H.M.S. Cornwall during a routine smuggling investigation, said the official, who spoke on condition on anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the incident.

So, is this a show of force as Iran President Ahmadinejad prepares to leave for New York and a Saturday address to the United Nations Security Council?

A mistake or miscalculation?

Or was this planned?

Members of the British Royal Navy boat team patrol the Shatt al-Arab waterway that flows into the Gulf, December 2003. Some 15 British Royal Navy sailors were detained by Iranian navy vessels in the Gulf, the Ministry of Defence has said, adding that it was “urgently” seeking clarification from Tehran.

And remember this is not the first time this has happened. There was a similar incident in 2004.

In any case, Ahmadinejad will have alot to explain to Britain at the United Nations tomorrow.

Stay tuned for updates……

---

Technorati Tags: Iran, Iraq, Britain, UnitedKingdom

Democrats press deadline for Iraq pullout

So, the House Democrat leadership has packed the Iraq War funding bill with pork to get members to vote for it.

Flap smells a Presidential VETO.

Previous:

The Michael Ramirez Files

---

Technorati Tags: MichaelRamirez

Day By Day by Chris Muir

Previous:

The Day By Day Archive

---

Technorati Tags: DayByDay, ChrisMuir