Flap's Blog - FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog » Archive for Thursday, August 2nd, 2007

Archive for August 2nd, 2007

Aug 02 2007

Electoral Reform California Initiative Could Split California Presidential Votes

cats7 Electoral Reform California Initiative Could Split California Presidential Votes

Californiaâ€™s Congressional Districts

A few days ago, Flap wrote that North Carolina appears to be changing their electoral college Presidential selection system just in time for the 2008 election.

And, Flap, wondered about a change in California’s system.

Dave G over at race42008 posts a piece that clarifies the issue in California.

The Electoral Reform California Initiative is already circulating to change California’s apportionment of Presidential electors to the Electoral College.

Here is the California Secretary of States summary and details of the initiative.

Requirements for Presidential Electors. Statute.

Summary Date: 7/2/07 Circulation Deadline: 11/29/07 Signatures Required: 433,971

Proponent: Anthony F. Andrade Jr. (916) 230-2123

Requires political parties to nominate a presidential elector from each congressional district and two additional statewide electors. Requires presidential electors to pledge that they will cast their ballots for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates who receive the plurality of votes in their congressional districts or, in the case of the statewide electors, for the candidates who receive the plurality of votes in the state. Eliminates compensation and reimbursement for travel expenses for presidential electors. Summary of estimate by Legislative Analyst and Director of Finance of fiscal impact on state and local government: Reduced state expenses of less than $10,000 every four years. (Initiative 07-0016.)

The full text of the initiative is here.

So, will this affect the 2008 race for the Presidency in California?

You bet

A Republican-backed ballot proposal could split left-leaning California between the Democratic and GOP nominees, tilting the 2008 presidential election in favor of the Republicans.

California awards its cache of 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner in presidential elections _ the largest single prize in the nation. But a prominent Republican lawyer wants to put a proposal on the ballot that would award the statewide winner only two electoral votes.

The rest would be distributed to the winning candidate in each of the state’s congressional districts. In effect, that would create 53 races, each with one electoral vote up for grabs.

California has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. But the change _ if it qualifies for one of two primary ballots next year and is approved by voters _ would mean that a Republican would be positioned the following November to snatch 20 or more electoral votes in GOP-leaning districts.

That’s a number equal to winning Ohio.

California Democrats will mightily fight this initiative, should it qualify. The result would be at least 20 electoral votes for whomever is the GOP candidate for President. The lock the Democrats have had on California Electoral votes would be broken and broken forever.

Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by congressional district. But, California has a REAL chance to change their system.

The arguments to pass the initiative would be the same arguments GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger used to justify the change of California’s Presidential Primary election from June to February 5, 2008 – increasing California’s national political clout and giving Presidential candidates an incentive to campaign in California. Californians might just accept the initiative.

From a partisan perspective, at the very least, the campaign to defeat the initiative by the Democrats would be a costly election year drain on their resources. At the most, the change could elect a Republican President.

Flap says watch this initiative. It may very well determine who is the next President of the United States.

Previous:

North Carolina Ready to Change Electoral College Presidential Selection Rules for 2008

Technorati Tags: Electoral Reform California, Electoral College, GOP, Democrats