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Archive for December 7th, 2007

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The Mike Huckabee (Southern Baptist Minister) vs. Mitt Romney (Mormon) fight is threatening to tear the GOP apart.

And by Huckabee’s own logic, since he is not running for head of a theological college, what is he doing proclaiming himself a “Christian leader” in an ad promoting himself for president? Answer: Having the issue every which way. Seeming to take the high road of tolerance by refusing to declare Mormonism a cult, indeed declaring himself above the issue — yet clearly playing to that prejudice by leaving the question ambiguous, while making sure everyone knows that he, for one, is a “Christian leader.

Should Mike Huckabee prevail by using his Evangelical Christian beliefs to win enough GOP delegates to either WIN or BROKER the September 2008 National Convention, the GOP may implode.

Certainly the Mormons will abandon the GOP as well as Catholic, Jewish and secular GOP voters.

The GOP invited the Evangelicals to the dance and they have one of their own in Mike Huckabee as a Presidential contender.

But, this invitation and “PLAYING THE RELIGION CARD” may be the path to an overwhelming Democrat victory and the demise of the GOP as a national party.

Stay tuned……


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Republican presidential hopeful, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee speaks Friday, Dec. 7, 2007, in Bluffton, S.C.

Is it OVER in Iowa?

  • Mitt Romney – 17% (25%)
  • Rudy Giuliani – 9% (15%)
  • Fred Thompson – 10% (16%)
  • John McCain – 6% (7%)

This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from December 5-6.

A commanding lead for Mike Huckabee with less than a month to go. Can Mitt Romney who has already spent over $7 million in Iowa make a comeback?

But, the sample size(GOP likely caucus goers) of this poll is small. This poll might be an OUTLIER and Huckabee’s lead may not be as large. Yet…….

Will Mitt Romney gamble and go negative on Huck in Iowa? Or concede and use New Hampshire as his “FIREWALL” and go full out in Nevada and Michigan?

Stay tuned…..

Update:

This graph from Real Clear Politics tells all:

Previous:

Mike Huckabee Watch: Arkansas Clemencies – Is Huckabee Too Soft on Crime?


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Republican Presidential hopeful, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani address the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association annual meeting in Chicago, Friday, Dec. 7, 2007.

Patrick Ruffini has the RIGHT analysis.

Unless Rudy melts down, the race could EVEN evolve into a “BROKERED” GOP CONVENTION” in September 2008.

Stay tuned……

Update:

Matthew Miller over at race42008 doesn’t think too much of Ruffini’s analysis. What Miller doesn’t remember are three states in different areas of the country where Giuliani is strong and where GOP Convention delegate numbers are many: New York, Illinois and California. Rudy will make it to February 5th. The question is who will be there with him?
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rudy 26% Huckabee 18% McCain 13% Romney 12% Thompson 11% Paul 3% in Latest National GOP Poll

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Status of the Campaign PM Edition


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Republican presidential hopeful, Rudy Giuliani, greets members of the Retired New York City Police Organization 10-13 during a news conference at the Lido Beach Resort Thursday, Dec. 6, 2007 in Sarasota, Fla.

With the surge of polling support for Mike Huckabee, Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to hold a 8 point lead in the national Ap-Ipsos GOP polls.

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Although Rudy has seen poll numbers decreasing with the Huckabee boom, he has to be reassured in the second part of the choice above – his clear double digit lead in the first and second place choices.

Giuliani’s “Big State” strategy is predicated on maintaining a national poll lead particularly for fundraising support. With his apparent second or third place finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Giuliani campaign must now marshall their resources in Florida (The “Firewall) and move to the big states, including California and Illinois.

The race continues to be fluid and indeed may be headed toward a protracted state by state and delegate by delegate campaign – Something although exciting for the public is not relished by the national GOP.

Stay tuned…….

Republican presidential hopeful, Rudy Giuliani, speaks during a news conference at the Lido Beach Resort Thursday, Dec. 6, 2007 in Sarasota, Fla.

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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Status of the Campaign PM Edition


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