Republican presidential hopeful former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani greets the crowd following his speech during a campaign stop Saturday, Dec. 15, 2007, in Tampa, Fla.
It is being reported that the Giuliani campaign is reducing its media buy in New Hampshire and moving these campaign resources to Florida (voting by absentee ballot presently and at the polls January 29) and Super Tuesday February 5 states.
Jonathan Martin has the poop from the Rudy campaign:
A top Giuliani aide tells me that the decision was made to retain flexibility in a still very fluid race – a tacit acknowledgement that the uncertainty of the early races has given them the confidence to rely on delegate-rich Florida as a springboard.
â€œAn important objective throughout has been to keep the race wide open until February 5th,â€ said this source. â€œWith the increased spending and negativity of Gov. Romneyâ€™s campaign, the rise of Gov. Huckabee and the staying power of McCain, the fluidity looks like it will keep this race wide open past the first few states.â€
Unsaid but implied is that theyâ€™re not as worried about Romney running the table in the early states and building up enough momentum to render Giulianiâ€™s Sunshine State and Tsunami Tuesday strategy irrelevant.
Well, there are a few obvious observations:
- Mitt Romney will either lose Iowa or squeak out a small victory against Mike Huckabee after spending over $8-10 million there.
- John McCain with the endorsement of two major New Hampshire area newspapers and his strength from beating George W. Bush in the 2000 primary WILL challenge Mitt Romney and hold any victory down.
- Mike Huckabee is running strong in South Carolina and will deny Mitt Romney a win there.
- The longer the primary season lasts the more large states will be able to vote their delegates to Rudy Giuliani. In this primary season the SURVIVOR will win. You need campaign cash in order to survive and contest later primary elections.
- Rudy Giuliani is more popular in the larger states where his moderate social views are more mainstream GOP than in early states dominated by Evangelical Social Conservatives.
So, why not manage your campaign cash efficiently and concentrate on states like Florida, Illinois, California, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All of which have many more delegates than New Hampshire and have much more expensive media markets.
This is a common sense, pragmatic move.
And, one born out of necessity if this and the Rasmussen poll hold up in Florida.
Technorati Tags: Rudy Giuliani