Rudy Giuliani on the Sean Hannity Show yesterday
Since the Florida Rasmussen Poll of this past weekend, pundits have been declaring Rudy Giuliani to be “on the brink” of failing in his bid for the Presidency. They blame his “BIG STATE” strategy and that by emphasing states with a more diverse population, more people and more GOP delegates that he will fail.
This is hard to believe on its face – especially with national poll numbers, an 11 point lead, like these.
Granted, the Huckaboom and the sudden surge of Mike Huckabee’s popularity in the polls has led credence to this opinion.
But, there are signs of the Huckaboom losing steam and that if there is any certain result of his surge is that he muddles the race in the early states where Giuliani has had little if any chance to win.
Iowa and South Carolina are states with large numbers of Evangelical Christian voters which trend toward a southern candidate like Mike Huckabee or Fred Thompson. Michigan, Nevada and New Hampshire are home fields for Mitt Romney. All of these states have relatively few GOP delegates at stake.
Realistically, the first states that are competitive for the GOP field are Florida and the February 5 Super Duper Tuesday contests, that include California and Illinois.
So, onto the polls:
Strategic Vision GOP Florida Primary
- Rudy 25% (31%, 11-9 thru 11-11)
- Mike Huckabee 21% (9%)
- John McCain 15% (13%)
- Mitt Romney 13% (12%)
- Fred Thompson 10% (13%)
- Ron Paul 4% (4%)
- Tom Tancredo 2% (2%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
- Undecided 9% (14%)
Survey of 468 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 14-16. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Survey USA GOP Florida Primary
- Rudy 29% (32%, 12-2 thru 12-3)
- Mike Huckabee 24% (18%)
- Mitt Romney 20% (15%)
- John McCain 10% (11%)
- Fred Thompson 8% (14%)
- Other 6% (5%)
- Undecided 3% (6%)
Survey of 431 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 15-16. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.
SurveyUSA GOP California Primary
- Rudy 28% (32%, 11-30 thru Dec 2)
- Mike Huckabee 20% (14%)
- Mitt Romney 16% (14%)
- John McCain 14% (18%)
- Fred Thompson 13% (13%)
- Other 7% (6%)
- Undecided 3% (3%)
Yes, the races have tightened and Giuliani’s lead has decreased. But, he is NOT in third place in Florida like the Rasmussen Poll indicated. Obviously, this poll was an OUTLIER.
Rudy is not on the brink of collapse with a double digit national GOP lead and solid leads in these two GOP delegate laden states.
The rumors of Giuliani’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. But, isn’t this the picture the rival campaigns and the Democrats hoped to paint?
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