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A GOTV (Get Out the Vote) Mail piece dropped in Iowa

Johnathan Martin (formerly of the Mitt Romney endorsing National Review) and who now works for the Romney shill Politico is all upset about the above direct mail piece dropped by the Mayor in Iowa.

What is the flap?

There is none.

But, Martin and/or his employer (who are clearly in the bag for Romney) like to dig the Mayor for not doing well in Iowa and diverting his campaign resources to compete in larger delegate states where he is doing better in the polls.

Flap talked about the Mayor’s strategy earlier today.

Does Martin think that Rudy wants to capitulate completely in Iowa or does he wish to contrast His Man Mitt’s superior performance for one quarter the delegates as California as actually having relevance?

Or are Martin and the Politico just sore that the New York Times exposed their Giuliani-Nathan scandal as a FRAUD.

Update:

Next, Romney shill Martin relates this scenario for HIS MAN MITT:

A longtime NYC Rudy-watcher makes a very smart point contra the CW that a Mitt sweep of the first two states would harm Hizzoner.

With Huck and McCain out of the way courtesy of Iowa and New Hampshire, Rudy would get his head-to-head matchup with Mitt. With McCain out of the race, especially, Rudy would no longer see competition for the same pool of centrist and security-minded Republicans.

Rudy beats McCain one on one.  Rudy beats Huckabee one on one. Rudy beats Romney one on one.  Look at the demographics and the polls.

What Martin writes is babble.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa – The Strategy Memo

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Closing Argument – War on Terror

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad – “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNZnUf6ygcg[/youtube]

Mike Huckabee explains his spike of negative anti-Romney campaign ad in what is now called attack ad bait-and-switch

Mitt Romney in Iowa outside Bill’s pizza responds:

“You know in reaction to the press conference Gov. Huckabee had today, I think that I’d note that I’m running a serious campaign, that there are serious issues that face the country at this time. I want to bring change to Washington — that’s what my campaign is about. The press conference which Gov. Huckabee had today, I think, is confusing to the people of Iowa. On the one hand, he wants to run a positive campaign; and on the other hand, he shows a negative campaign ad and hopes that people promote it and provide it to the public through the earned media. And I think that’s a very confusing and puzzling message. With that, who wants a slice of pizza?”

The national press have “panned” Huckabee’s gambit of pulling his anti-Romney attack ad from Iowa airwaves but will it play to Iowa voters? And, what Flap calls Huckabee’s larger Christian audience – the Evangelicals in South Carolina, Georgia and Florida?

Huckabee may realize that he may well lose to Romney in Iowa but his campaign will live on by helping McCain label Romney as nasty, a violator of Reagan’s 11th Commandment in New Hampshire enabling a Romney loss and then pick up conservative voters when Fred Thompson withdraws.

The GOP Presidential race is a chess match and the pundit has to look beyond an Iowa moment.

Stay tuned……

Previous:

Mike Huckabee Watch: Huck Pulls the Plug on Negative Romney Ad in Iowa

Mike Huckabee Watch: Romney Owes Me an Apology

Mike Huckabee Watch: Huck Responds to Romney Negative Ads

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Accuses Huckabee of Being Soft on Meth

Mike Huckabee Watch: Calls Romney Desperate and Dishonest While Defending John McCain Against Negative Romney Ads

Mitt Romney Watch: New Romney TV Ad Goes Negative on Huckabee Foreign Policy; Update: Huckabee Calls Romney “Dishonest”


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*****Update: Scroll Down for News Presser Video*****

Update: Romney Campaign response below

Mike Huckabee and wife at Iowa News Presser

Mike Huckabee in an Iowa news presser (lined with charts of anti-Romney opposition research) announced that he was not going to air a negative Romney television ad he filmed yesterday.

However, among laughter of the assembled press he played the ad.

Mark Halperin has a bootleg copy of the ad here.

The New York Times blog calls Huckabee’s stunt a “remarkable play” – maintaining the high road while providing the oppo research for others to do the dirty work.

Telling you what’s in the ad, of course, plays into Mr. Huckabee’s strategy of getting his message out — Mr. Romney is bad — while being able to say his hands are clean.

He spoke at a dais in front of a huge banner that said, “Enough is Enough.” Placed around the room were poster boards criticizing Mr. Romney for various things.

The press will be cynical and some will call Huckabee a hypocrite but the anti-Romney message is clear and out there. And, Huckabee can say he took the “high road” as his campaign moves onto South Carolina where the next Huckabee-Romney war will be waged.

Flap will publish the ad when it becomes available on You Tube.

Stay tuned……

Update:

Videos of the Huckabee news presser are now available:

Part 1, including the running of the negative ad

[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=SNZnUf6ygcg[/youtube]

Part 2
[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=-7a5LzzN-oI[/youtube]

Update #2:

The Romney Campaign Response:

From Romney Campaign Spokesman Kevin Madden:

“We’re proud that Governor Romney has run a campaign about the issues that are important to voters. Governor Romney has worked hard to talk about the vision and experience he has when it comes to keeping taxes low, cutting wasteful spending and securing our borders. He’s worked hard to make his case to voters about leading a Republican Party that will strengthen the American family.

“Mike Huckabee’s troubling record is clearly not holding up well under scrutiny.

“To say one thing one minute and then turn around and show an attack ad to reporters the next will, obviously, leave folks with a very cynical view of Mike Huckabee and his message.”

“Mike Huckabee has turned from nice to very hot-tempered now that his record has been examined by voters.

“It’s Mike Huckabee’s record. It’s definitely a tough record for him to defend, but it’s still a record that belongs to Mike Huckabee.”

To day there is NO LOVE LOST between Romney and Huckabee is an understatement. The same goes with the McCain and Romney campaign.

How does Romney ever expect to unite the GOP party apparatus behind his candidacy should he win the nomination?

Flap can see many GOP voters supporting the independent candidacy of Michael Bloomberg rather than voting for Romney.

Would McCain, Huck and Rudy REALLY support Romney?

Nope – Probably lip service ONLY.

Update #3

Carl Cameron from Fox News offers his analysis:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5FeLw3Vnr0[/youtube]

An Iowa Caucus MOMENT?

What is up with Mike Huckabee?

Update #4:

Mike Huckabee channels Ronald Reagan’s 11th GOP Commandment in pulling the negative anti-Romney ad.

Mike Huckabee’s comments to Wolf Blitzer a moment ago, about the ad he decided not to air.

“A lot of cynics are going to say this is all contrived and planned. I don’t care what they say.”

“If it costs me the caucus, it does.”

“I don’t want to run an ad where I feel like have to take a shower when I’m done.”

“We didn’t give out DVDs, which we were prepared to give out. We said ‘we’re just not gonna do it.’ …The video didn’t work, so it’s not usable anyway.

“If we’re going to wrap ourselves in the mantle of Ronald Reagan, let’s wrap ourselves in the tone of Ronald Reagan. Let’s remember his 11th Commandment, which said, ‘Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.’

Asked by Wolf Blitzer if he has a message to Mitt Romney: “He’s free to run his campaign any way he wishes. He can say anything he wants about his record, and.. he can say anything he wants about my record. We’re going to run a positive campaign.”

Will more Iowa GOP votes be forthcoming for Huckabee due to this gambit? Or, is he planning ahead to South Carolina anyway?
Previous:

Mike Huckabee Watch: Romney Owes Me an Apology

Mike Huckabee Watch: Huck Responds to Romney Negative Ads

Mitt Romney Watch: Romney Accuses Huckabee of Being Soft on Meth

Mike Huckabee Watch: Calls Romney Desperate and Dishonest While Defending John McCain Against Negative Romney Ads

Mitt Romney Watch: New Romney TV Ad Goes Negative on Huckabee Foreign Policy; Update: Huckabee Calls Romney “Dishonest”


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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BJqDaSsCh0[/youtube]
Mayor Giuliani tells Brett Bair of FOX News that his campaign is built for the long haul.
From a Giuliani campaign press release:


Rudy

TO:

TEAM RUDY

FROM:

BRENT SEABORN, STRATEGY DIRECTOR

RE:

Looking Good

DATE:

December 31, 2007

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/article/pr/1110

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right – bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old “Carter/Clinton” approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right.

As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states.

Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November – December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state polling

State

Mayor Giuliani Average

Closest Opponent Average

Florida

30%

17%

California

29%

15%

New Jersey

38%

12%

New York

40%

12%

The Primary Calendar
2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint.

Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars’ strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5.

For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York – tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy.

Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do.

The Early States
The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates – the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests

Date

State

Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty

1/3

Iowa

0*

1/5

Wyoming

12

1/8

New Hampshire

12

1/15

Michigan

30

1/19

Nevada

0*

1/19

South Carolina

24

1/29

Florida

57

2/1

Maine

0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.

Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond’s endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida’s 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.

State Polling and Outlooks
As noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor’s support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle.

In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire.

The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney’s Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney’s strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign.

New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain’s base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race.

Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race.

Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life and become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling.

Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January.

Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself.

Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win.

One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize – winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.

Paid for by the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee, Inc.


This is an updated camapign strategy memo sent to the press and supporters as a fundraising vehicle. Flap reproduces it here in total for future analysis.

The main question is: Will 2008 be a different election year or will the history of past GOP nomination contests featuring momentum generated from Iowa and New Hampshire rule February 5th?

Whoever successfully plays the upcoming 30 day campaign wins – end of story.

Previous:

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The World Does NOT Revolve Around Iowa

Rudy Giuliani Watch: The Closing Argument – War on Terror

Rudy Giuliani Watch: Obey the GOP 11th Commandment

Giuliani California Campaign Watch: Call Out for Telephone Volunteers in Thousand Oaks, California

Rudy Giuliani Video Watch: Rudy Reacts to Bhutto Assassination

Rudy Giuiani Watch: National Television Ad – “FREEDOM”; Update: Rudy Giuliani’s Statement on the Assassination of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto


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