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There is talk in polling circles about the “Bradley Effect” and the inability of accurate polls in this presidential election cycle.

The term Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.

One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will appear to the pollster to be racially prejudiced. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters’ answers. Some pollsters believe that they do not receive deliberately false answers from white voters. The Bradley effect, these pollsters believe, is caused by pollsters’ failure to account for general political leanings among voters who are undecided between Democrats and Republicans.

Flap remembers the 1982 California race and proudly voted for Republican George Deukmejian. All of the California pollsters had African American Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley far ahead of Duke and Bradley still lost. It was quite a shock to the MSM who were all in the tank for Bradley.

Why?

Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that previously “undecided” voters had voted for Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.

A month prior to the election, Bill Roberts, Deukmejian’s campaign manager, predicted that white voters would break for his candidate. He told reporters that he expected Deukmejian to receive approximately 5 percent more votes than polling numbers indicated because white voters were giving inaccurate polling responses to conceal the appearance of racial prejudice. Deukmejian disavowed Roberts’s comments, and Roberts resigned his post as campaign manager.

So, could this happen in the McCain vs. Obama contest? Will race affect the vote?

You bet. However, since most of the Republicans Flap knows always give the opposite answer to a pollster who calls it may be difficult to discern whether it is the controlling factor or just one of many. Obama’s lead cannot be too large to give solace to the Democrats. A close race spells trouble.

Just remember the final poll is on election day when the votes are counted.

This entry was posted on Thursday, September 18th, 2008 at 2:39 pm and is filed under Barack Obama, John McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.