The latest California Survey USA poll has the YES on California Proposition 8, Protect Traditional Marriage Constitutional amendment winning.
In a vote today, 10/17/08, on California’s Proposition 8 Ballot Initiative, which would change California’s constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry, approximately half the state supports the measure, half the state opposes the measure, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. The exact findings are: ‘Yes’ (to change the law) 48%, ‘No’ (to leave the law alone) 45%. But: polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business, so SurveyUSA urges all who examine these results to not put too fine a point on the 3 points that separate “Yes” and “No” today. In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past month, Proposition 8 has been fiercely fought, and effectively even, all 3 times. “No” nominally led by 5 points on 09/25/08. “Yes” nominally led by 5 points on 10/06/08. The movement from 10/06/08 to today is not necessarily statistically significant.
The exit question: Is there a Bradley effect on homosexual and gay marriage polling?
In other words, when asked survey questions are California voters reluctant to reveal their true opinions on the idea of traditional marriage whereas will vote their “TRUE” conscience once in the voting booth?
If this is the case, then California Proposition 8 may be winning by an even larger margin.
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