FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog

A state ballot measure to ban gay marriage in California is gaining momentum, with polls showing almost even odds of it passing after trailing by double digits a month ago.

In June, the state legalized same-sex marriages. The next month, Proposition 8, defining marriage as between a man and a woman, was put on the ballot for November. Initial polling showed that a majority of Californians were likely to vote against Proposition 8. A Sept. 18 poll by the San Francisco-based Field Poll found the measure losing 55% to 38% among likely voters.

But now the measure is favored 48% to 45% among likely voters questioned in an Oct. 17 poll by Survey USA of Verona, N.J. The poll’s margin of error, four percentage points, means the results were a statistical tie.

A group leading the fight against the measure, Equality for All, said this week that one of its internal polls shows Proposition 8 leading by four percentage points. The close results of that poll, too, may suggest a dead heat as the Nov. 4 election approaches.

The media campaign from the Pro Yes on 8 has been relentless and they have lead in fundraising. Evangelical Christian, Mormon (LDS) and Catholic churches have been busy churning up their membership roles and donors.

Plus, it has been suggested that there is a gay marriage “Bradley Effect” in polling and being four points behind may mean ten points behind. Remember the last gay marriage election had the support of 61 % of California voters.

Interesting there is support for Proposition 8 in two large Democrat constituencies - African -Americans and Latinos.

But two Democratic constituencies — African-Americans and Latinos — are leaning toward the ban. Among likely black voters, 58% supported Proposition 8 compared with 38% who opposed it in the most recent Survey USA poll. Among Latinos, 47% supported the proposition while 41% opposed it; white voters were nearly evenly split. The reason, “Yes” officials say, is that church attendance is strong in many minority communities.

Here is the summary of the latest polling:

Stay tuned…..

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Protect Traditional Marriage - The Robb and Robin Wirthlin Story

Where is California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California Proposition 8 - Gay Marriage Fight?

The study, released Wednesday, examined 2,412 campaign stories from 48 news outlets during the six weeks from the end of the conventions through the final presidential debate.

The results: While the candidates are receiving equal amounts of coverage, 59% of stories about McCain were “decidedly negative in nature,” while only 14% were positive.

Obama hasn’t exactly been fawned over by media, but the coverage statistically has been more evenhanded, with 36% of stories clearly positive, 35% neutral or mixed, and 29% negative.

On Sarah Palin:

Sarah Palin coverage’s had an “up and down trajectory, moving from quite positive, to very negative, to more mixed,” the study said. The negative coverage dealt with looks into her public record and her relationship with the press. “Little of her trouble came from coverage of her personal traits or family issues,” the authors said.

The key question: Are the media pro-Obama?

The study said the question was not answerable by the data.

Flap knows, then, they did not survey NBC News which is anti-McCain, anti-Palin and pro-Obama ALL OF THE TIME.

Rudy Giuliani is portraying Barack Obama as soft on crime in robocalls being blasted out to swing states by the RNC and the McCain campaign.

The call comes on the heels of a mailer being sent out by the Florida GOP focused on crime, an indication that even while on the stump, John McCain focuses on contrasting himself with Obama on taxes and spending, his campaign and his party are using other wedge issues in a more targeted fashion as Election Day nears. 

The focus is on the Democrat’s opposition to mandatory minimums, and the bill of particulars is tough.

“You need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers and murderers,” Giuliani says. “It’s true. I read Barack Obama’s words myself.”

Good to see Rudy helping the GOP again and John McCain in particular.

Anyone think that Rudy will not be McCain’s Attorney General when he wins on November the 4th?

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

Conventional wisdom and most of the other Presidential polls have Obama up sometimes by double digits. So, this poll could be an outlier.

But, Flap believes the race with tighten and that the Bradley Effect may very well skew poll numbers until election day.

The GOP should not be discouraged in their GOTV efforts. There are other races down ticket as well.

Update:

Now, the IBD/TIPP Tracking poll shows a tightening race.

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama’s lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

Yeah right. Everyone knows that Sarah Palin is a draw and why not sell a few more magazines. Halperin likes to get paid. I mean, after all Saturday Night Live had their best ratings in what, over 14 years?

Here it is.

“polls conducted in campaigns pitting white and black candidates against each other are doing a better job of accurately predicting the outcome of the election now than in the past, suggesting that hidden biases that confounded polling in biracial elections in the 1980s and early 1990s are no longer a serious problem.”

Comparing races against GOP African American candidates and their white Democrat opponents is probably not the same as Geraghty aptly notes.

The fact that the polls were wrong with regards to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the primary elections earlier in the year have pollsters and the campaigns paying attention to a potential “Bradley Effect.”

And, there is the conventional wisdom in GOP circles which have many Republican voters outright lying to pollsters as a matter of disguising election results.

Many a dissertation will be written about this campaign for the Presidency, and the polls.