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The latest California PPIC poll has California’s Proposition 8 being defeated on November 4th.

Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would end same-sex marriage in California, is losing among likely voters, 52 percent to 44 percent, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation.

Here is a chart of their findings:

The complete polling report is here (PDF file).

Some interesting points about this poll:

• The gap between likely voters in favor and opposed to Proposition 8 (44% yes, 52% no) has narrowed since September (41% yes, 55% no) and August (40% yes, 54% no). Compared to last month, more Republicans (70% today, 62% September) would vote yes on the measure, which would eliminate the right for same-sex couples to marry that the state Supreme Court granted in May. Opposition is 4 points lower among Democrats (67% today, 71% September), but 5 points higher among independents (58% today, 53% September).

• At least half of men, women, Latinos, and whites oppose Proposition 8. Regionally, majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (55%) are opposed. But majorities in the Central Valley (54%)and in the “Other Southern California” region that includes Orange, San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties (52%) favor the measure.

• On the more general question of how they feel about allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry in
  California, likely voters are divided, 47 percent in favor and 49 percent opposed. These attitudes are largely unchanged since 2005.

• In an indication of how strong voters’ motivations are to cast their ballots on this measure, supporters of
  Proposition 8 are far more likely (69%) than opponents (49%) to say the results are very important.

• The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents
  interviewed from October 12–19, 2008. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days,
  using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and
  unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible.

• We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state
  population...Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registeredvoters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately.

Read the complete methodology of the poll on page 29 of the report here.

So, how does this poll differ from the Survey USA Poll Flap reported earlier?

Remember the graphic from the Wall Street Journal:

The most glaring difference between the two polls is when the sample was collected:

• PPIC: October 12-19 (Sunday through Sunday)

• Survey USA October 15-16 (Wednesday and Thursday)

Most poll pundits agree that weekend polling is risky at best because so many average or regular voters are not at home and activist types predominate.

Moreover, the YES on Proposition 8 campaign has been bombarding the televison airwaves with very effective ads the past three weeks with little opposition. Both polls note a DEFINITE trend in supporting the measure.

So, what does this all mean?

The California Proposition campaign is indeed a dog fight which will be decided on the last minute media campaign and Get Out the Vote ( GOTV) efforts. Obviously, the NO campaign is worried by sponsoring an emergency Hollywood fundraising effort earlier in the week.

Stay tuned…..

Previous:

Gay Marriage in Peril in California – California Proposition 8 Heading for Adoption?

Protect Traditional Marriage – The Robb and Robin Wirthlin Story

Where is California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California Proposition 8 – Gay Marriage Fight?

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 23rd, 2008 at 7:30 am and is filed under Gay Marriage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.