Yes On California Proposition 8 Blogger Conference Call – Status of the Race
Posted by Flap in Gavin Newsom, Gay Marriage
Status of the race:
Polling indicates the race has a 97 % awareness level among California voters. When these voters are asked how they will vote it is:
- 44 % – Yes
- 44 % – No
When you read the voters the ballot label language the result is:
- 48 % – Yes
- 48 % No
So, the race is DEAD EVEN on both ways of counting which is a good position the Yes campaign feels to be in.
Frank Schubert:”If we are tied on Monday night then Yes on 8 will win by 4-8 points.”
Why?
For a couple of reasons:
- The history of polling on this issue suggests there is a percentage of people who do not accurately report they support traditional marriage. They do not want to say something that may be perceived as not politically correct. Historically, that polling percentage has averaged about 7 % if you look at all of the states where marriage has been on the ballot. “I don’t think it will be 7 per cent this time, more like 4 or 5 per cent bump that we will get…”
- Another reason why if Yes is tied or behind by a couple of points on Monday night is the ground operation that the Yes on 8 campaign has. We have a truly Presidential GOTV operation (Get Out The Vote). There are over 100,000 people who have committed to walk door to door to distribute targeted literature and doorknob hangers throughout the weekend and Monday and on Monday we will have as many as 5 people per precinct working to get the vote out – both going door to door or phoning voters who either have not voted or will be voting. This is a GOTV effort that has never been done in California before for a proposition.
Oh Yeah on Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O’Connell within fifteen minutes of the challenge offered up to debate the gay marriage issue, he delined. Shocker, isn’t it?
And, for the San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom fans, Newsom will make a repeat performance this weekend on television for the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign.
Update:
Others Blogging:
Proposition 8: The Inside Scoop!
Prop 8 Blogger Conference Call
The Hedgehog Blog



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