Tony Strickland Lead Shrinks Again in California State Senate Race

Los Angeles County, Ventura County and Santa Barbara Elections updated their vote totals today in the California State Senate District 19 race.

According to Flap’s math Republican Tony Strickland continues to lead by 903 votes versus 1,164 votes Tuesday.

The raw figures:

Santa Barbara County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 73,708 [73,351] + 357 [#’s from Monday]; (72,693) (#’s from last Friday) + 658
• Tony Strickland: 58,680 [58,497] + 183; (58,166) + 331

Los Angeles County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 12,342 [12,193]  + 149 [#’s from Monday]; (12,083) + 110
• Tony Strickland: 16,911 [16,660] + 251; (16,493) + 167

Ventura County:

• Hannah-Beth Jackson: 120,792 {119,780} {#’s from Tuesday} + 1,012 – 55%; [116,730 #’s from Monday] +3,050 – 52%  ; (115,477) + 1,253
• Tony Strickland: 132,154 {131,331} + 823 – 45%; [128,507] + 2,824 – 48% ;  (126,922) + 1,585

Los Angeles County again was kind to Tony Strickland while the provisional ballot count in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties punished his lead.

Flap does not know whether there will be ANY further updates from Santa Barbara or Los Angeles County.

With today’s update in Ventura County there remain around 3,000 provisional ballots to count there.

If those Ventura County provisional ballots were to break  2 to 1 for Hannah- Beth Jackson, the race would be essentally tied, especially if she were to pick up a few votes in Santa Barbara County without an offset in Los Angeles County.

So, what is Flap saying?

The race remains close but everything has to break Jackson’s way for her to win or trigger a meritorious recount challenge. The recount may be coming forthwith, in any case.

Flap agrees with Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star that it is unlikely that either of these candidates will take the oath of office on Monday when their term of office begins.

Stay tuned as the deadline of December 2 (next Tuesday) approaches for each county to finish up their count and certify the election results.