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Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd continues to struggle in the eyes of Connecticut voters with a new poll showing the five-term incumbent in a statistical dead heat with his likely Republican challenger.

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, shows former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) taking 43 percent of the vote to Dodd’s 42 percent in a hypothetical 2010 matchup — a danger zone for any incumbent, particularly a Democrat in a state as blue as Connecticut.

Inside the numbers, the prognosis isn’t much better. Simmons is winning the support of 15 percent of self-identified Democrats in the poll and independents are siding with the former Republican House member by a whopping 49 percent to 32 percent.

Dodd’s personal favorability ratings are also languishing with 46 percent expressing a favorable opinion about him and 45 percent feeling unfavorably. Compare those middling numbers to Dodd’s showing in Q polls from May 2007 (45 percent fav/31 percent unfav) and February 2007 (49 percent fav/30 percent unfav) and you see just how badly he has been hurt by his ties to the troubled mortgage lender Countrywide and his quixotic presidential bid.

The re-emergence of the national Republican Party may come in unanticipated places, like solidly blue states such as Connecticutt and perhaps New York.

But, corruption has sunk Chris Dodd and the GOP needs to exploit this pick up opportunity.

Wishful thinking from the LEFT mostly and stirring the pot.

Jim Geraghty has the RIGHT view.

But, Steele must quickly organize his staff and demonstrate that he has command of the party apparatus as a change agent.

California voters are as sharply divided over gay marriage as they were in November when they approved Proposition 8, overturning a state Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriages.

Voters passed Proposition 8, which declared marriage could only be between a man and a woman, 52 percent to 48 percent.

A new Field Poll showed voters almost evenly split, 48 percent to 47 percent, when asked if they would approve a new constitutional amendment to again allow same-sex couples to marry.

Last week, the state Supreme Court heard arguments in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of Proposition 8. From questions asked by the seven justices, court watchers concluded the court is likely to uphold Proposition 8 but also allow to stand the 18,000 same-sex marriages performed after the court’s original ruling in May and the November election.

A coalition of gay-rights groups have filed an initiative aimed at the 2010 ballot to make same-sex marriages legal again.

Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said that while Californians are dramatically more supportive of same-sex marriages than they were a few decades ago, he questioned whether attitudes would be much different in 2010 than they were in 2008.

He noted that gubernatorial elections always have smaller voter turnouts than presidential elections and that younger voters most supportive of same-sex marriage are also among the least reliable voters.

“If you bring this to an election, turnout really does matter,” DiCamillo said. “Which groups turn out a little bit more and which ones turn out a little bit less have a big effect on the outcome.”

A second difficulty, the pollster said, is that an amendment reinstating same-sex marriage would require a “yes” vote whereas Proposition 8 required a “no” vote to preserve gay marriages.
“The thing that works against the advocates’ position is now they’ve got to get a ‘yes’ vote which is harder to get than a ‘no’ vote,” DiCamillo said.

It is likely that the California Supreme Court will PUNT on the issue of gay marriage in the coming weeks. By PUNT, Flap means that the court will uphold California Proposition 8 restoring the traditional definition of marriage – while on the other hand allowing the same sex marriages already completed to remain valid.

What will this mean for gay politics in 2010 – a Governor’s election year?

Dan Walters has an accurate description of the conventional wisdom on a California electoral outcome.

It will be a gamble for gay marriage proponents to come before California voters again in 2010.

Will homosexual activists roll the dice?

Will cities and states erect border barriers and charge taxes to use “THEIR” infrastructure?

How about a tax on illegal border crossing along the Mexican border? Now, you know THIS will never happen – why alienate a constituent voting group of the future?

Stay tuned as more economic silliness comes from the Obama spendaholics. What will they spend today?

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