Believe It Or Not: The GOP is NOT a Regional Party
Jim Geraghty does the analysis.
Discussing the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives with David Freddoso and Mark Hemingway earlier today, we noticed that the “the Republican Party is becoming a regional party” argument is nonsense — even though it’s widely repeated.
The AP, today: “With Sen. Arlen Specter’s switch to the Democrats, the Republican Party is increasingly at risk of being viewed as a mostly Southern and solidly conservative party, an identity that might take years to overcome.”
Er, no. The South amounts to 44 percent of the Republican House delegation, which means 56 percent has to come from somewhere else.
And that’s just looking at House districts. Examine these charts from CQ. McCain won 193 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts, including 49 that split their tickets to elect Democrats to the U.S. House. There are currently 178 Republicans in the House of Representatives. So a total of 227 House districts voted for either McCain, or a Republican House member, or both — in what everyone would agree was a fantastic year for Democrats.
Even if Republicans won every House seat in the South they would only have 131 seats — leaving 96 other districts across the country.
Even in their shrunken minority, Republicans hold 19 House seats in California, eight in Ohio, seven in Michigan, seven in Illinois, seven in Pennsylvania, five in New Jersey, five in Missouri, three in Minnesota, three in New York, three in Washington state, and the one seat in Delaware.
And it works in the reverse, too — Democrats actually represent more House seats in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Virginia and North Carolina than Republicans. Neither party is as regional as conventional wisdom suggests.
Let’s look at Flap’s Congressional district that was won by Obama last November:
Yet, long-time incumbent GOP Represenative Elton Gallegly won by a comfortable 16 points in a down GOP year.
The LEFT and Democrats like to blow smoke and hope it catches fire.
Now, the GOP does have a New York and New England problem but not one that marginalizes the national party.
Sorry, Democrats.
Technorati Tags: GOP, Democrats, Elton Gallegly
7 Comments
John P.
Looking at the map, it’s clear who the “regional” party really is.
Ling
The current distribution of seats for the GOP is just fine. And the 2010 elections doesn’t bother me either. The real danger is where this is heading to. If Obama does well in these first 4 years, then there’s going to be some more shrinking in 2012 – and that would be a real disaster, because the GOP will be wiped out in every Dem state. Only way to prevent that would be to recruit some moderates who can win in 2010 and use the incumbency to hold on in 2012. If the GOP puts candidates through litmus tests in blue states now, then you can be sure it will be a regional party in 2013.
Flap
I would day develop and/or recruit candidates that are the right fit for the state or Congressional district. The Dems have done a good job of this in the red states.
Recruitment has been sorely lacking by the GOP and it is time for a new generation of candidates.
Kirsten Lucas
I say we just “trim the edges” off the United States and call it a day!
Brad S
Flap,
I’ve long advocated distributing Electoral Votes by Congressional district. Here’s why: In my state of CO, even though Obama got 56% of the total vote, McCain won 4 of 7 Congressional districts. In fact, it looks as though McCain won the majority of FL Congressional districts, too.
Flap
I agree.
Some Californians including the Rudy Giuliani campaign folks were about to float an initiative here to do this exact thing.
Time to get busy and put it on the ballot in some states.
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