• Del.icio.us Links

    links for 2010-01-18

    January 18, 2010 /
    • MA-Sen: 538 Model Posits Scott Brown as 3:1 Favorite
      The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley. We have traditionally categorized races in which one side has between a 60 and 80 percent chance of winning as "leaning" toward that candidate, and so that is how we categorize this race now: Lean GOP. Nevertheless, there is a higher-than-usual chance of large, correlated errors in the polling, such as were observed in NY-23 and the New Hampshire Democratic primary; the model hedges against this risk partially, but not completely.
      ++++++
      Handwriting on the wall?
      (tags: Scott_Brown, Martha_Coakley)
    • Democrat Rep Bart Stupak: House Won't Vote for Senate Obamacare Bill
      In an interview on Monday, Representative Bart Stupak, Democrat of Michigan, who opposes the Senate bill because of provisions related to insurance coverage of abortions, said: "House members will not vote for the Senate bill. There's no interest in that."

      When the idea was suggested at a meeting of the House Democratic Caucus last week, Mr. Stupak said, "It went over like a lead balloon."

      "Why would any House member vote for the Senate bill, which is loaded with special-interest provisions for certain states?" Mr. Stupak asked. "That's not health care."
      ++++++
      No, it isn't and Dem House members would be fools to ram this through should Scott Brown win.

      (tags: Obamacare bart_stupak)
    • Solid Scott Brown Lead in Final MA-Sen Poll Models
      Republican Scott Brown holds a lead in all 18 alternative models of the Massachusetts Senate race polls, now including all polls released through 6:00 p.m. Monday. Our standard trend estimate puts the race at a 6.2 point Brown lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. The less sensitive alternative linear model puts the Brown lead at 7.3 points. Across all models, Brown leads by between 1.0 and 8.9 points. Three quarters of the estimates have Brown ahead by 4 points or more.

      Brown built this lead over the past week of polling with only some tentative sign of the trend flattening over the weekend. Of course the last available polls were completed Sunday evening so we do not know if any movement has occurred on Monday.
      ++++++++
      Truly amazing campaign……

      (tags: Scott_Brown, Martha_Coakley)
    • CA-Sen: In California, Carly Fiorina Polling Well Against Floundering Boxer
      Massachusetts isn’t the only “blue” state where Republican Senate candidates are nipping at the heels of Democrats. According to Rasmussen,

      Senator Barbara Boxer is now the latest Democratic incumbent to find herself in a tightening race for reelection.

      A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely California voters finds Boxer with narrow leads over her three leading Republican challengers, including newcomer Tom Campbell.

      Against each of the three Republicans, vying to oppose here, Ma’am holds at 46%. My gal Carly does the best at 43% (didn’t I see a poll last week that had the Massachuetts race at 43-46?). Tom Campbell, fresh from switching races (he had been barnstorming the state as a candidate for Governor, but had not been polling well against Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner in the contest for taking on Democrat Jerry Brown) is at 42, with longtime candidate Chuck DeVore at 40%.

      Methinks Chuck might do well to shop for an open Congressional seat.
      +++++
      Yep….

      (tags: carly_fiorina barbara_boxer)
    • Obamacare: Democrats May Seek to Push Health Bill Through House
      The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders, scrambling for a backup plan to rescue their health care legislation if Republicans win the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday, have begun laying the groundwork to ask House Democrats to approve the Senate version of the bill and send it directly to President Obama for his signature.
      A victory by the Republican, Scott Brown, in Massachusetts would deny Democrats the 60th vote they need in the Senate to surmount Republican filibusters and advance the health legislation.

      And with the race too close to call, Democrats are considering several options to save the bill, which could be a major factor in how they fare in this year’s midterm elections.

      Some Democrats suggested that even if their candidate, Martha Coakley, scraped out a narrow victory on Tuesday, they might need to ask House Democrats to speed the legislation to the president’s desk, especially if lawmakers who had supported the bill begin to waver…..

      (tags: Obamacare)
    • What to believe about Massachusetts Senate Polls: Scott Brown Leads By 4 or 11Pts
      There has been a wider than normal range of polling results in the last two weeks from the Massachusetts Senate special election. This has been further clouded by a number of leaked internal polls and polling by relatively unknown and unproven pollsters, some partisan but others not. And most importantly, the rapid shifts in the race, reflected across all the polls, makes this a fast moving target. So let's take a moment to consider what we could reasonably conclude based on the data.

      But no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.

      The chart above shows all the polls we have available as of 12:36 a.m. Monday morning. That includes new PPP and Pajamas Media/CrossTarget polls released late Sunday evening. The chart also includes the leaked polls, mostly from the Coakley campaign but one from Brown as well.
      ++++++
      Stay tuned – it will be quite a ride tomorrow.

      (tags: Scott_Brown, Martha_Coakley)
  • Day By Day,  Martha Coakley,  Scott Brown

    Day By Day January 18, 2009 – The Revolution Will Be Televised

    January 18, 2010 /


    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The latest poll from the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race has Republican Scott Brown winning in tomorrow’s special election.

    The final Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) leading Martha Coakley (D), 51%
    to 46%, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.

    Key finding: “56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among  Coakley’s supporters only 73% think she’s made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown’s supporters think he has.”

    You know this poll must have some credibility since after President Obama’s visit for Democrat Martha Coakley yesterday, the Democrats started blaming President George W. Bush.

    Now, it is down to the GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operations of both parties.

    Stay tuned…….

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  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2010-01-18

    January 18, 2010 /
    • @NathanWurtzel But, if the President couldn't fill a 3000 seat college auditorium….Just Sayin'……. in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • @KimPriestap Well, it has to be Bush because "the One" is blameless. Maybe it was Teddy's fault? in reply to KimPriestap #
    • @KimPriestap Did they blame it on the NFL or was it Bush? in reply to KimPriestap #
    • RT @pwire: Suffolk, ARG, PPP, and Merriman all have Brown leading… UNH, R2000 and Rasmussen have Coakley leading http://bit.ly/tvKlh #tcot #
    • RT @philipaklein: New PPP poll suggests momentum toward Brown since last wk's poll…BUT wouldn't reflect any bump from Obama visit today. #
    • RT @ppppolls: MA-Sen: Brown 51 Coakley 46: http://tinyurl.com/ybbzb2o #tcot #
    • links for 2010-01-17 http://bit.ly/5lxDMY #tcot #
    • RT @LizMair: The Celebrity Apprentice will involve all of Blago, Sharon Osbourne and Bret Michaels? I might actually tune in| You Betcha #
    • Shocker: Avatar wins best motion picture Golden Globe #goldenglobes #
    • You know, Julia Roberts is, well, profound. #goldenglobes #
    • After Obama Rally, Dems Pin Blame On Bush – Patrick Kennedy Doesn't Know MA-Sen Dem Candidates Name #tcot http://icio.us/setogb #
    • Carly Fiorina, Steve Poizner talk to Conejo Valley GOP about running for CA U.S. Senate, Governor #cagop #catcot http://icio.us/z5dqsv #
    • @JsTrevino I think you and @NathanWurtzel made your points and I made mine. Spin, spin spin. #
    • @JsTrevino Now, you are answering your boss's tweets? How @chuckdevore is under the MOE lowest end point. – Fiorina and Campbell are not. #
    • RT @pwire: New poll gives Brown solid lead over Coakley, 50.8% to 41.2% in MA-Sen race… http://bit.ly/6MjQ97 #tcot #
    • What? Kicking the challenge flag is unsportsmanlike conduct.? With all the stuff that goes on in the NFL? Come on – let them play. #
    • @NathanWurtzel Certainly possible this time. Boxer has not had a race for over a decade and unemployment is very high here in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • Well, can I split the difference? Mark Sanchez went to my alma mater – USC. #
    • @NathanWurtzel Interesting that here in California that 1 week of TV ads costs $ 3 million. A big pile of cash by anyone's count. in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • @NathanWurtzel But, resource wise this is huge for all GOP candidates. Boxer will not be able to transfer any of her $6M & must raise more in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • @NathanWurtzel Then what do you say about Fiorina who trails by 3 points. Possibly ahead? Or just need a larger sample size? in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • @NathanWurtzel Um DeVore is 6 points below. Plus or minus 4.5 does not mean -9? Quite a reach, wouldn't you say? Even if technically correct in reply to NathanWurtzel #
    • CA-Sen: @ChuckDeVore claims Rasmussen poll puts him within margin of error of Boxer. Not so. Down by 6 points and MOE = 4.5 #tcot #catcot #
    • MA – Sen: Appointed Senator Paul Kirk Can't Vote After Tuesday – Obamacare in Jeopardy? #tcot http://icio.us/slfq5e #
    • @katieharbath Indeed so. But the Chargers have now scored early in the second quarter. #
    • RT @pwire: Obama advisers now think Coakley will lose MA-Sen race… http://bit.ly/8OTSRW #tcot #
    • I am from California. Of course, I want the San Diego Chargers to win. #
    • RT @MelissaTweets: RT @RadioPatriot: Watch Scott Brown live NOW – http://bit.ly/6mMKBv #tcot #
    • RT @mkhammer: MA-Sen: Charlie Cook: Scott Brown now favored: http://bit.ly/7cFZe7 #tcot #
    • Dentist Dr. Tommy Murph: I WOULD LIKE TO EXTRACT TEETH? http://bit.ly/6cQ289 #tcot #
    • AP: White House looks at bypassing another Senate Obamacare vote if Republican Scott Brown wins Massachusetts Senate seat Tuesday #tcot #
    • Poll Watch: MA-Sen : Brown 51 Coakley 41 #tcot http://icio.us/ktnixn #
    • The clouds are starting to move in. Gosh five days of rain in Southern California? Guess it is better than cold or snow. #
    • CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore's spokesman Josh Trevino redefines 'compassionate conservative' with Tweet on Haiti earthquake http://icio.us/cpcd5d #
    • CA-Sen Poll Watch: Boxer 46% Vs. Fiorina 43% http://bit.ly/4HAlEo #tcot #
    • A great day today: Jack Bauer returns on "24" #tcot #
    • Day By Day January 17, 2010 – That Big Sucking Sound http://bit.ly/8SRurr #tcot #
    • Riling up Boston Red Sox Fans by calling Curt Schilling a Yankee fan – Martha Coakley is dumber than a rock. Scott Brown will win MA-Sen #
    • Good Sunday morning/afternoon/evening Flapsblog.com, Twitter, Friendfeed and Facebook friends: http://bit.ly/17ucG0 #
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2010-01-17 http://bit.ly/6XVl4F #tcot #

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