Archive for January, 2010
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What a surprise! Tom Campbell recently switched from the Governor’s race to the U.S. Senate race, and now a new poll shows him in the lead, with 30% of the vote, amongst the three Republican candidates.
Campbell is a professor at Chapman University, here in Orange, and he is fairly moderate. So is Carly Fiorina, who earned a fortune working at HP. She is coming in second with 25% of the vote.
And then there is Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. The poor guy has worked his tail off and he is coming in a distant third with 6% of the vote. No matter what he does, he simply cannot get around the fact that he has very low statewide name I.D., and he really hasn’t accomplished anything of note in Sacramento. And, as a staunch social conservative, he is out of step with most California voters.
My sources in Sacramento tell me that DeVore was stunned by this new poll and that he is seriously considering dropping out of the race altogether.
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Chuckles who?
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Rasmussen
1/18/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
Pennsylvania
2010 Senate
Toomey 49%, Specter 40% (chart)
Toomey 43%, Sestak 35% (chart)
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 53 (chart)
Gov. Rendell: 43 / 56 (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter: 43 / 54 (chart)
Pat Toomey: 57 / 27
Joe Sestak: 37 / 37
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The U.S. Supreme Court ruling today overturning restrictions on independent spending by corporations and labor unions could have an immediate impact this year in California's U.S. Senate race.
California state campaign finance rules already allow corporations and unions to give directly to independent expenditure campaigns without limits, so the court decision will have little impact on state contests.
But the decision overturns federal rules requiring that corporations and unions establish political action committees, or PACs, to spend on elections. Bob Stern, president of the Center for Governmental Studies and an architect of California campaign finance rules, said the ruling should have a greater impact for corporations, who have access to more money and have been less adept than unions at navigating PAC rules in the past.
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Should help Carly Fiorina the most.
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Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that she lacks the votes to quickly move the Senate's sweeping health overhaul bill through the House, a potentially devastating blow to President Barack Obama's signature issue.
Pelosi, D-Calif., made the comment to reporters after House Democrats held a closed-door meeting at which participants vented frustration with the Senate's massive version of the legislation.
Her concession meant there was little hope for a White House-backed plan to quickly push the Senate-approved health bill through the House, followed by a separate measure making changes sought by House members, such as easing the Senate's tax on higher-cost health plans. Such an approach would be "problematic," she said.
"In its present form without any changes I don't think it's possible to pass the Senate bill in the House," Pelosi said, adding, "I don't see the votes for it at this time."
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Former Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards has finally come forward to admit that he fathered a child with a videographer he hired before his second White House bid. "It was wrong for me to ever deny she was my daughter," he said Thursday.
Edwards confirmed this in a statement released to The Associated Press, after initially denying that he'd fathered a child during an affair with campaign aide Rielle Hunter.
"I am Quinn's father," the former senator declared in his statement, as the second birthday of Frances Quinn Hunter approaches.
A former Edwards aide, Andrew Young, initially claimed paternity of the child shortly before the 2008 presidential primary contests began. Young is scheduled to release a book on Feb. 2 that details the scandal.
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What a cad and a-hole who is a disgrace to the male gender.
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A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Missouri shows Roy Blunt (R) now holds a six-point lead over Robin Carnahan (D) for the U.S. Senate, 49% to 43%.
Last month, Carnahan had a narrow 46% to 44% edge over Blunt.
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Poll graphic courtesy of the Sacramento Bee
I posted the California Field Poll results for the California United States Senate race earlier this morning. It is 30% for Tom Campbell, 25% for Carly Fiorina and 6% for Chuck DeVore. Those are the raw numbers.
Let’s look at some more (the cross tabulations are here):
And, now the favorability numbers:
But, what do all of the numbers mean for Republicans Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore?
The California Field poll is a vulnerable venerable polling organization that is reputable for accurate results. But, there are a number of factors that should be pointed out.
- I doubt MOST Californians are paying attention to a United States Senate primary election in June.
- The poll was conducted partly before Tom Campbell switched last week from running for California Governor to U.S. Senate.
Tom Campbell – the leader for now:
Campbell the former Congressman from Northern California has run statewide for the United States Senate twice before. Until last week he has been campaigning for many months against Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner for the Republican Governor nomination statewide.
It is obvious that Campbell has good name identification and with a generic sounding name it is easy to pick him in answering a polling interview.
However, Campbell is a very socially liberal Republican. For example, he is pro-abortion, supports government funding of abortion and was against California’s Proposition 8 that restored the traditional definition of marriage – in other words Campbell supports gay marriage. Campbell has also been active in legalizing marijuana for medicinal use and there may be some question as to whether he favors further decriminalization of marijuana laws or even outright legalization.
On fiscal matters, he has not hesitated to support tax increases, including supporting California Proposition 1A (which I voted against and was defeated), and supporting a gas tax increase of 32 cents while Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director. Moreover, Campbell has refused to sign a no-tax pledge.
When informed of these facts by either Fiorina and/or DeVore, Caliifornia voter support will likely fall like a stone. Add this with the fact that Campbell has absolutely NO campaign cash since he could not transfer his California Governor’s campaign account to the Senate campaign, he will be unable to advertise for months.
Then, there is the major problem of his campaign. Campbell is a political campaign harlot who has hopped from one bed to another to just get elected to office. Look at his CV and his political career. When informed that Campbell is just another typical politician anda harlot at that, the 30 per cent he received in this poll may be his high water mark.
Chuck DeVore – last place and why is he continuing in this race?
Chuck DeVore, an obscure California Assemblyman from Orange County (and a very safe Republican district) has never run before for statewide office BUT has been running for United States Senate for over a year. And, he receives only 6 per cent! Frankly, nobody knows who the hell this guy is and that is reflected in the poll result above.
I have illustrated and posted a number of times that DeVore has been unable to raise any substantial campaign cash and although he has more on hand than Campbell at the moment, he is already behind Fiorina by almost $ 3 Million. He has no funds to do any type of media campaign, including televison. And, with only 6 % he is unlikely to be able to pry more money out of the hands of the few donors he has captured.
The only question for the DeVore campaign is when to gracefully withdraw or beg for it to be over whichever occurs first. If DeVore stays in the race look for about a 15 per cent showing at the polls – maybe 20 at most.
Carly Fiorina – second place but attacked by Campbell and DeVore and Boxer – oh my!
The former CEO of Hewlett-Packard is a well-known California corporate leader who was a major surrogate for John McCain’s Presidential campaign last year. Carly has been seen on Fox News and the other cable news and business channels ALOT.
But, Carly developed breast cancer last year and underwent both radiation and chemotherapy for much of the Spring and Summer 2009. She only declared her candidacy in November when she secured the endorsements of most Republican incumbent U.S. Senators, including John McCain and Tom Coburn.
Her fundraising has been good but not outstanding in the two months she has been a candidate. But, the Christmas holidays may have slowed her down a bit – so she reached into her own pocket and pulled out $2.5 million. Carly can reach for more and in a few conversations with her it is my impression that money is not really a concern for her. Resources will not be a problem for Carly.
So, why is Carly who is in second place in the above polling attacked so much? She is attacked by DeVore for being a RINO (Republican in Name Only) and not being conservative enough (Carly is pro-life and against gay marriage) – so wrong there Chuckles.
She is attacked by Campbell for having a campaign in disarray. Well, at least she has a communication team and has some campaign funds, unlike Campbell who just returned from Panama and extensive Spanish lessons. Fiorina is lead by Marty Wilson who has a pretty good track record in electing major California politicians. Do the names Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger stand out? Wilson’s fundraisers will raise mega-bucks for Fiorina – hear the cash register now?
Then, Carly is attacked by Boxer and the left for having bankrupted Hewlett-Packard and shipping jobs overseas. Both are false and Hewlett-Packard is the largest computer manufacturer in the country now and is thriving. With the corporate campaign rules being chnged today by the U.S. Supreme Court lets see how much American business disfavors Fiorina. I think she will be able to raise a ton of money – like on the order of $10 million in independent expenditures alone – maybe more.
So, what does the Field Poll mean?
In short, Carly Fiorina WILL win by beating Tom Campbell handily in June with Chuck DeVore withdrawing sometime after the California GOP Convention in March.
Stay tuned……
Technorati Tags: Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore, Tom_Campbell
Tags: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore
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Carly Fiorina addressing Conejo Valley Repubican Women January 15, 2010 Photo by Flap
From the Press Release:
Carly for California Deputy Campaign Manager for Communications Julie Soderlund issued the following statement regarding the Field Poll survey on the U.S. Senate race in California, which was released today:
“We continue to be encouraged by the polling in this race, which shows that Carly is a strong candidate both in the primary and in the general election and that voters are highly dissatisfied with Barbara Boxer’s continued support for bigger government and higher taxes. Tom Campbell is a career politician who has now run for statewide office three times, so one would have expected that his high name identification would come through more strongly in this poll. But once voters learn that Tom has spent the last five years supporting increased government spending and higher taxes and now refuses to commit to voting against more tax increases in the Senate, we expect his numbers to fall fast – just like Martha Coakley’s did in Massachusetts.â€
Stay tuned……
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Tags: Carly Fiorina
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Posted by Flap in Day By Day
Day By Day by Chris Muir
The Haiti earthquake disaster is a DISASTER.
But, to ascribe God’s hand with Satan and man-made climate change to it is NUTS.
On the other hand a birth of a child is mysterious. With the birth of each of my four children I always thought they were a GIFT FROM GOD.
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Apparently the San Diego Union broke the 6 AM PST embargo on the poll. So, I will report it now.
A week after dropping his bid for governor and switching to the U.S. Senate race, former Rep. Tom Campbell has taken the lead in what is now a three-way Republican field, a new Field Poll shows.
The poll shows Campbell leading among likely voters in the June 8 Republican primary election with 30 percent to 25 percent for former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and 6 percent for Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of Irvine. The remaining 39 percent were undecided.
The winner will face three-term Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer in November.
“It demonstrates the relative weakness of the Fiorina and DeVore candidacies up to this point,†said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo.
The GOP Senate race remains largely unfocused, even among the Republicans considered most likely to vote, according to the poll, which has a high margin of error.
The vast majority of Republican voters said they did not know enough about any of the candidates to have an opinion about them.
Republicans have a favorable opinion of Campbell at 26 percent to 11 percent, but 63 percent have no opinion at all. Likewise, Fiorina is regarded positively, 20 percent to 10 percent, but 70 percent have no opinion.
The most unknown quantity is DeVore, with 81 percent of the Republican primary voters having no opinion about him. Of those who do, 8 percent are favorable and 11 percent unfavorable.
Stay tuned, as I will have more later.
Technorati Tags: Carly_Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck_DeVore
Tags: Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Tom Campbell
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The Fiorina campaign put out a broadside declaring Campbell’s fiscally conservative credentials expired long ago. In his recent run for governor Campbell supported a temporary gas tax increase to help balance the state budget.
I asked Campbell about that at his Friday news conference.
Campbell said his proposal for a temporary tax increase was a pragmatic, responsible approach to California’s budget problem. He said his overall proposal for the state budget was to cut three dollars of spending for every dollar of tax increase.
Campbell, however, said he would not sign a No-Tax Pledge because, he argued, no one can anticipate every situation that might arise. He asked voters to look at his record in congress to understand that he would not seek a tax increase but would pursue massive spending cuts if elected.
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Sorry but Tom Campbell is a tax and spend RINO
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An internal memo I obtained from Carly Fiorina’s campaign (authored by campaign manager Martin Wilson), notes that, “depending on the results today in Massachusetts where a Republican may win in the bluest of blue states, a mindset of ‘anything is possible’ becomes more the norm and not the exception.â€
The obtained memo includes internal polling conducted during former Rep. Tom Campbell’s announcement tour (when he switched from the gubernatorial race to the senate race), which shows that in a first ballot match-up, Fiorina and Campbell are tied at 26 percent apiece, with DeVore at 11 percent.
But when voters are provided information regarding Cambpell’s questionable record on fiscal issues, Carly comes in with 35 percent, followed by DeVore at 18 percent. Campbell then trails at 11 percent.
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Marty Wilson is a proven winner with Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina said today that California Sen. Barbara Boxer, the Democrat she hopes to unseat this year, is “extremely vulnerable,†particularly in light of the Senate upset in Massachusetts on Tuesday.
“I think Barbara Boxer is clearly extremely vulnerable. She was vulnerable a year ago and she’s more vulnerable today,†the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard said today in a small conference at the office of her Sacramento strategists.
Fiorina predicted jobs, government spending and the healthcare legislation in Washington would remain on voters’ minds throughout 2010. â€All of those things play in California just as they played in Massachusetts,†Fiorina said. On Tuesday, Massachusetts voters swept Republican Scott Brown into the U.S. Senate over Democratic state Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley.
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The GOP sees blood in the water and it is Boxer's
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In a short talk with reporters Wednesday, Fionrina repeatedly hammered on incumbent Barbara Boxer, whom she hopes to face in November. But — when asked about recent polls — she also attacked Republican Tom Campbell, who announced last week that he would pursue Boxer's seat as well (he had been running for governor). It's a notable change from her M.O. prior to Campbell's departure, when she seemed to avoid talking about her other Republican challenger, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. (She also mentioned him today.)
"I think what all those polls say is that Barbara Boxer is vulnerable. Tom Campbell has run for office now several times, and he obviously has strong name ID and when voters realize on many important issues his positions are indistinguishable from Barbara Boxer, his ratings will fall, just as Martha Coakley's did," she said.
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Carly is going right after Tom Campbell
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Former Gov. Sarah Palin will announce today that she's hitting the campaign trail for Republicans — including her former running mate John McCain.
Palin, who did not campaign in last year's governor's races or in yesterday's Senate race in Massachusetts, has committed to contests in three states, including two Republican primaries, an aide said.
She'll campaign in Texas for Gov. Rick Perry, who faces a primary challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison; she'll appear in Arizona for Senator John McCain, who faces a challenge from the right; and she'll appear in Minnesota for Rep. Michelle Bachmann, a conservative firebrand who has emerged as a national figure.
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The upset victory of Republican Scott Brown Tuesday in the Massachusetts Senate race had an immediate effect in California, where GOP U.S. Senate Republican candidates wasted no time going on offense — vowing that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer is on tap next.
Former South Bay Rep. Tom Campbell made the first move, issuing a jab at Boxer — along a claim that he will now take her on and address "the suicidal direction Congress and the President are taking our economy."
The combative statement from the ususally low-key Campbell hint at the pumped-up themes — and energy — to come from the GOP side in the 2010 CA U.S. Senate race against Boxer, where former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of Irvine are already raring to go. And GOP state officials were positively bubbly in their reaction to Tuesday's election results in the Bay State, where Brown handily beat Democrat Martha Coakley.
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Nevada, Colorado and Missouri are next and easier
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