Archive for January, 2010
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The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley. We have traditionally categorized races in which one side has between a 60 and 80 percent chance of winning as "leaning" toward that candidate, and so that is how we categorize this race now: Lean GOP. Nevertheless, there is a higher-than-usual chance of large, correlated errors in the polling, such as were observed in NY-23 and the New Hampshire Democratic primary; the model hedges against this risk partially, but not completely.
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Handwriting on the wall?
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In an interview on Monday, Representative Bart Stupak, Democrat of Michigan, who opposes the Senate bill because of provisions related to insurance coverage of abortions, said: "House members will not vote for the Senate bill. There's no interest in that."
When the idea was suggested at a meeting of the House Democratic Caucus last week, Mr. Stupak said, "It went over like a lead balloon."
"Why would any House member vote for the Senate bill, which is loaded with special-interest provisions for certain states?" Mr. Stupak asked. "That's not health care."
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No, it isn't and Dem House members would be fools to ram this through should Scott Brown win.
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Republican Scott Brown holds a lead in all 18 alternative models of the Massachusetts Senate race polls, now including all polls released through 6:00 p.m. Monday. Our standard trend estimate puts the race at a 6.2 point Brown lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. The less sensitive alternative linear model puts the Brown lead at 7.3 points. Across all models, Brown leads by between 1.0 and 8.9 points. Three quarters of the estimates have Brown ahead by 4 points or more.
Brown built this lead over the past week of polling with only some tentative sign of the trend flattening over the weekend. Of course the last available polls were completed Sunday evening so we do not know if any movement has occurred on Monday.
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Truly amazing campaign……
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Massachusetts isn’t the only “blue†state where Republican Senate candidates are nipping at the heels of Democrats. According to Rasmussen,
Senator Barbara Boxer is now the latest Democratic incumbent to find herself in a tightening race for reelection.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely California voters finds Boxer with narrow leads over her three leading Republican challengers, including newcomer Tom Campbell.
Against each of the three Republicans, vying to oppose here, Ma’am holds at 46%. My gal Carly does the best at 43% (didn’t I see a poll last week that had the Massachuetts race at 43-46?). Tom Campbell, fresh from switching races (he had been barnstorming the state as a candidate for Governor, but had not been polling well against Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner in the contest for taking on Democrat Jerry Brown) is at 42, with longtime candidate Chuck DeVore at 40%.
Methinks Chuck might do well to shop for an open Congressional seat.
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Yep….
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The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders, scrambling for a backup plan to rescue their health care legislation if Republicans win the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday, have begun laying the groundwork to ask House Democrats to approve the Senate version of the bill and send it directly to President Obama for his signature.
A victory by the Republican, Scott Brown, in Massachusetts would deny Democrats the 60th vote they need in the Senate to surmount Republican filibusters and advance the health legislation.
And with the race too close to call, Democrats are considering several options to save the bill, which could be a major factor in how they fare in this year’s midterm elections.
Some Democrats suggested that even if their candidate, Martha Coakley, scraped out a narrow victory on Tuesday, they might need to ask House Democrats to speed the legislation to the president’s desk, especially if lawmakers who had supported the bill begin to waver…..
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There has been a wider than normal range of polling results in the last two weeks from the Massachusetts Senate special election. This has been further clouded by a number of leaked internal polls and polling by relatively unknown and unproven pollsters, some partisan but others not. And most importantly, the rapid shifts in the race, reflected across all the polls, makes this a fast moving target. So let's take a moment to consider what we could reasonably conclude based on the data.
But no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.
The chart above shows all the polls we have available as of 12:36 a.m. Monday morning. That includes new PPP and Pajamas Media/CrossTarget polls released late Sunday evening. The chart also includes the leaked polls, mostly from the Coakley campaign but one from Brown as well.
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Stay tuned – it will be quite a ride tomorrow.
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
The latest poll from the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race has Republican Scott Brown winning in tomorrow’s special election.
The final Public Policy Polling survey in Massachusetts finds Scott Brown (R) leading Martha Coakley (D), 51%
to 46%, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.
Key finding: “56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley’s supporters only 73% think she’s made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown’s supporters think he has.”
You know this poll must have some credibility since after President Obama’s visit for Democrat Martha Coakley yesterday, the Democrats started blaming President George W. Bush.
Now, it is down to the GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operations of both parties.
Stay tuned…….
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The Day By Day Archive
Technorati Tags: Day_By_Day, Scott Brown, Martha_CoakleyTags: Martha_Coakley, Scott_Brown
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Posted by Flap in Twitter
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Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), speaking with a gaggle of reporters after the event, said that while state Sen. Scott Brown (R) offers voters a quick fix, in reality, the problems created by "George Bush and his cronies" are not so easily solved.
"If you think there's magic out there and things can be turned around overnight, then you would vote for someone who could promise you that, like Scott Brown," Kennedy said. "If you don't, if you know that it takes eight years for George Bush and his cronies to put our country into this hole … then you know we have a lot of digging to do, but some work needs to be done and this president's in the process of doing it and we need to get Marcia Coakley to help him to do that."
(Curiously, Kennedy mentioned Coakley repeatedly during his remarks to reporters, each time referring to her as "Marcia," not "Martha.")
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Pretty sad. Any Dem at any time to take Uncle Teddy's seat.
GAG…..
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Two of the top Republican candidates for statewide office were in Thousand Oaks on Friday, both of them locked in tough primaries and spending millions of their own dollars on their campaigns.
Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a candidate for governor, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, a candidate for U.S. Senate, were the two biggest names at a candidate forum hosted by the Conejo Valley Republican Women.
Poizner will face former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in the June primary, with the winner likely to take on attorney general and former Gov. Jerry Brown in November. Fiorina is in a three-way fight for the right to challenge three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in the general election.
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Stay tuned for my photos and brief interview with Carly Fiorina.
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Appointed Senator Paul Kirk will lose his vote in the Senate after Tuesday’s election in Massachusetts of a new senator and cannot be the 60th vote for Democratic health care legislation, according to Republican attorneys.
Kirk has vowed to vote for the Democratic bill even if Republican Scott Brown is elected but not yet certified by state officials and officially seated in the Senate. Kirk’s vote is crucial because without the 60 votes necessary to stop a Republican filibuster, the bill will be defeated.
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Massachusetts 2010 Senate
Brown 51%, Coakley 41%, Kennedy 2%
nsideMedford.com / Merriman River Group
1/15/10; 565 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
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A GOP pick-up lookw likely.
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On Thursday, as the world anguished over the devastation in Haiti, the communications director for U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore, Josh Treviño, posted this on Twitter: "Haiti: the best thing the int'l community can do is tend the wounded, bury the dead, and then LEAVE. That includes all UN and charity."
Not exactly an instance of compassionate conservatism.
IA asked Treviño what in the world he was thinking. Two responses: Though he often uses his Twitter account to weigh in on campaign matters, in this case Treviño said he was speaking for himself and not DeVore, a conservative state assemblyman from Irvine who's seeking Barbara Boxer's seat.
"I chewed him out," DeVore told IA. "It was very foolish to make that argument after a devastating earthquake that's killed tens of thousands of people."
Trevino called the episode a mistake on his part and an example of the limitations of stating one's opinions in less than 140 characters.
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Ok…
But makes one wonder about DeVore
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One of the most popular threads on Dental Town, a dentist oriented message board (REGISTRATION REQUIRED) was started by Conway, South Carolina dentist, Dr. Tommy Murph. It is entitled: I WOULD LIKE TO EXTRACT TEETH?
Below is a collection montage of the nasty tooth extractions done by Dr. Murph now compiled on You Tube.
I WOULD LIKE TO EXTRACT TEETH?
The dental profession is indeed grateful to Dr. Murph for his outstanding willingness to help his patients and the dentistry profession by sharing and teaching dental procedures and tehniques.
He certainly has helped me in dealing with many complex oral surgery procedures.
If you are a dentist look up Dr. Murph on Dental Town or take one of his one on one courses at his office.
Of Course, Dr. Murph does more than tooth extractions as the video from his office describes.
Technorati Tags: Tommy_Murph, Dentistry, Dental_Town
Tags: Dental_Town, Dentistry, Tommy_Murph
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Poll Summary Chart Screenshot on January 17, 2010
The California U.S. Senate campaign for Carly Fiorina should be happy this morning – look at the trend line above. After all, the latest poll from Rasmussen has her trailing incumbent Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer by only three points.
 Rasmussen Polling
The latest poll results are within the margin of error unlike California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who after campaigning for over a year does twice as poorly as Fiorina.
Tom Campbell who until this past week has been campaigning for California Governor polls better by DeVore but is very close to the margin of error which is 4.5%.
It is apparent from his anemic fundraising and poor polling that DeVore’s campaign is doing the worst in this race with a too early to tell being given to Tom Campbell (I mean how many times has he run for California public office – many).
Fiorina who only announced her candidacy in early November has the most campaign cash on hand and an impressive list of California and national Republican Senators/donors. Then, there is her personal wealth which she can tap from time to time.
There are little prospects of any sustained advertising campaign from either DeVore or Campbell (who cannot transfer any funds raised in his Governor campaign and whose donorts must abide by federal campaign donation limits). When Fiorina starts to drop the direct mail, goes on the radio and does some limited television advertising one would expect her poll numbers to improve and differentiate herself from both DeVore and Campbell.
But, it is anyone’s guess how voters will perceive a three-way GOP primary election. With the Democrats unlikey to have a contested race this June with the concomitant draw of independent voters who may vote in the Republican primary, the race will depend on turn-out. Fiorina should have the advantage here.
The California Field poll is in the field and will be released next week. For now, the Fiorina campaign must be pleased at her progress (after all, Carly spent last spring and summer battling breast cancer – there was a question whether she would EVEN be a candidate).
I know someone who is not, however – Senator Barbara Boxer.
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CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer in Trouble for Re-Election in 2010
Technorati Tags: Barbara_Boxer, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore, Tom_Campbell
Tags: Barbara Boxer, Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
The large sucking sound you are hearing are Democrat voters leaving Massachusett’s U.S Senate Democrat candidate Martha Coakley to vote for Republican Scott Brown.
Can you believe that in a radio interview Martha Coakley riled up Boston Red Sox fans by calling Curt Schilling (a Scott Brown supporter and formerly of the Red Sox) a Yankee fan?
When Scott Brown wins this Tuesday, the next few sounds you will hear will be the wind going out of Nevada Senator and Democrat Senate Majority leader Harry Reid and Obamacare health care reform.
Tags: Martha_Coakley, Scott_Brown
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