Archive for January, 2010
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
The Democrats and even President Obama are scrambling to save Democrat Martha Coakley. The latest polls are indicating that Republican Scott Brown has more than a better chance in scoring an electoral upset.
A weird evening. Within five minutes, two sources call, each one hearing through the grapevine the internals of one of the two major campaigns in Massachusetts.
One tells me that the most recent internal poll of the Scott Brown campaign shows the Republican winning by . . . 11 percentage points. I’m getting the sense that the folks hearing this are almost a little incredulous, but it seems every demographic and key group is breaking to Brown in the past day or two. For weeks, Brown and everyone around him has said they will campaign and work as if they’re 30 percentage points down. But it seems like the campaign has been one Coakley stumble after another, and you figure that would eventually start affecting the numbers. According to that measure, it’s starting to break heavily in Brown’s direction . . . but we’ll have to see what the final few days bring.
The second source heard through the grapevine that the Martha Coakley campaign’s internal poll shows the race . . . dead even. This would be more or less in line with a lot of the public polls (Rasmussen, PPP, Suffolk) and while a Republican would prefer to be ahead, has to like those odds with a furiously energized grassroots and bad weather coming next week.
Massachusett’s voters have not elected a Republican to the United States Senate since 1972. And, Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by almost three to one.
We will see voter angst about the state of the nation very soon.
Hold onto your hat, folks.
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Technorati Tags: Day_By_Day, Scott Brown, Martha_Coakley
Tags: Martha_Coakley, Scott Brown
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Tom Campbell argued to Calbuzz on Thursday that his liberal stands on social issues will be rendered moot in the U.S. Senate race because “economic issues have never been more dominant,†making it likely he can win the Republican nomination.
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Uh, I don' think so, especially with Proposition 8 and gay marriage.
It’s not that social issues aren’t important to California’s staunchly conservative GOP primary voters, said former Silicon Valley Rep. Campbell, who is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and relatively green on the environment. But, he said, “The economic issues eclipse the social issues in the current environment.â€
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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Campbell — who until this morning was running for California governor — told The Bee this afternoon that he switched races not only because he was facing two wealthy gubernatorial rivals, Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, ready to spend tens of millions on their races but because he was alarmed at rising federal spending.
He spoke on his way from San Jose, where he had just finished a campaign event, to Sacramento, where he will hold another event at 9 a.m. Friday at the Hyatt Regency hotel. Campbell announced his switch this morning in Los Angeles.
"What we've seen in the last year is a tremendous growth of the federal government, tripling the deficit and an expansion of the federal role in health care and financial services," Campbell told The Bee. "The federal issues are just exploding in the last year."
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More like Campbell has an itch to win some public office – ANY public office. Just another politician bored with the private sector.
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Shock Waves Rippling: Trende makes a good point about the possible effect of a Brown win on health care:
[P]eople are predicting that if Brown wins either (1) the Democrats will pass the Senate bill or (2) the Democrats will get the revised bill through the Senate before Brown is seated.
I guess this is possible, but you have to think that a few more Democrats in R-leaning districts or states will be spooked enough by this to resist voting for the bill. Does Evan Bayh really think his seat is THAT safe? If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts, John Hostettler can sure as heck win in Indiana. [E.A.]
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Obamacare may be doomed no matter what.
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Last evening, while on Broadside with Jim Braude, I told Jim that Scott Brown was trying to prevent Nuns like the Sisters of Charity that taught me from performing medical procedures contrary to their religious beliefs. Today Martha Coakley told WBSM Radio Host Ken Pittman that those nuns should not work in an Emergency Room. The audio can be found here. This exchange starts at 9:34 into the audio.
Ken Pittman: Right, if you are a Catholic, and believe what the Pope teaches that any form of birth control is a sin. ah you don't want to do that.
Martha Coakley: No we have a seperation of church and state Ken, lets be clear.
Ken Pittman: In the emergency room you still have your religious freedom.
Martha Coakley: (…stammering) The law says that people are allowed to have that. You can have religious freedom but you probably shouldn't work in the emergency room.
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What a gaffe. Scott Brown may win this race
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3. Matt Drudge
Internet pioneer, owner of The Drudge Report
Many have predicted Drudge’s demise but the internet pioneer who sprung to national attention when he broke the Monica Lewinsky scandal as the mainstream media hesitated endures. As with Limbaugh, the White House despises Drudge but cannot stop thinking about him. When Drudge posted a video of Obama Biographies Plus News talking about the end of private health insurance in 2007, the White House sent out Linda Douglass, White House Deputy Communications Director and a former ABC News reporter to brand them "outright falsehoodsâ€. Drudge promptly posted the clip of Douglass, who came off second in the tussle. Establishment journalism types often decry Drudge but many of them are in email contact with him and crave a link that can immediately catapult one of their stories to the top of their newspaper website’s “most viewed†list.
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#1 Dick Cheney
#2 Rush Limbaugh
#4 Sarah Palin
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We asked George if he was OK serving as Campbell's "honorary chair" even though Campbell is pro-choice and pro-same sex marriage. George said he wishes there were fewer abortions but that it's the woman's right to choose. Marriage, however, should be between a man and woman. But those weren't deal-breakers for him. This was about fiscal responsibility, he said.
We know that the Campbell Senate campaign is in its infancy and that they're going to be stressing his fiscal chops (the National Taxpayers Union Foundation gave him high marks while he was in Congress.) But they may want to think the wording on one of the onstage signs here Thursday: "Cheapest Man in Congress." Just doesn't have a good ring.
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Pretty BIG differences. Time for Campbell to move along and quit again.
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Honorable and intelligent people can disagree over the substance and details of what President Obama and congressional Democrats are trying to do on health care reform and climate change. But nearly a year after Obama's inauguration, judging by where the Democrats stand today, it's clear that they have made a colossal miscalculation.
The latest unemployment and housing numbers underscore the folly of their decision to pay so much attention to health care and climate change instead of focusing on the economy "like a laser beam," as President Clinton pledged to do during his 1992 campaign. Although no one can fairly accuse Obama and his party's leaders of ignoring the economy, they certainly haven't focused on it like a laser beam.
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Obama ignored the Carville/Begala mantra: It is the economy, stupid.
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California U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina addressing the Conejo Valley Republican Women candidate’s luncheon today
Bad news for Democrat California U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer from the Rasmussen polling folks this afternoon.
California Senator Barbara Boxer is now the latest Democratic incumbent to find herself in a tightening race for reelection.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely California voters finds Boxer with narrow leads over her three leading Republican challengers, including newcomer Tom Campbell.
As in much of the country, the story may turn in part on the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, even though support for it is higher in California than nationally.
In California, 49% favor the health care plan, while 48% oppose it. But as in other states, the emotion is on the side of the opponents: Just 25% of California voters Strongly Favor the plan while 39% Strongly Oppose it.
Perhaps even more significantly, 55% of California voters rate the U.S. economy as poor, while just seven percent (7%) think it’s good or excellent. Golden State voters are evenly divided over whether the economy is improving: 36% say it’s getter better, while 35% say it’s getting worse. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it’s staying about the same.
“Any incumbent who polls below 50% at this point in the season is considered potentially vulnerable,†noted Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “However, vulnerable incumbents still have the power of their office and still have a decent chance of winning. The Democratic leaning political gravity of California will certainly give Senator Boxer a boost in that effort.â€
Here are the poll results:
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is only behind by three points after having announced her candidacy in November 2009. Tom Campbell who until this week was running for California Governor and who has twice before run for the U.S. Senate is behind by 4 points. Chuck DeVore who has been running against Boxer for over a year trails by 6 points.
As Rasmussen points out, this polling is more about Boxer than it is the three GOP challengers. But, the significance of this poll is that for whatever reasons Boxer and the Democrats will have to spend her $6 million campaign war chest in order to defend this seat.
A clear advanatge goes to Carly Fiorina who has amassed campaign cash far in excess of her two competitors. There is little doubt that with a contested seat that she will be able to call upon her national Republican supporters to provide more. And, then there is also her substantial personal wealth which in a close race can always be called upon.
I attended the Conejo Valley Republican Woman candidate’s luncheon today where Carly Fiorina addressed the faithful. I will have more on this later, including my brief interview with Carly.
Stay tuned…….
Technorati Tags: Barbara Boxer, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore, Tom Campbell
Tags: Barbara Boxer, Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Tom Campbell
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Is this a trend towards a GOP resurgence in 2010. Guess the Massachusett’s special election next Tuesday may give us an idea of the voter’s mood.
Stay tuned…….
Technorati Tags: Jane_Norton, Michael_Bennet
Tags: Jane_Norton, Michael_Bennet
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