Archive for August 25th, 2010
The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.
In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska. On average, over the model’s 100,000 simulation runs, the Democrats are projected to lose a net of six and a half Senate seats, which would leave them with 52 or 53 senators.
And, if Carly Fiorina wins in California the margin will be bigger.
If Joe Miller (R) ends up beating Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska — a result that won't be known until absentee ballots are counted over the next week — he would become the fifth Tea Party candidate to win a Republican U.S. Senate primary this year, joining Mike Lee in Utah, Rand Paul in Kentucky, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Ken Buck in Colorado.
First Read: "Perhaps one of the most underreported stories heading into November is what the U.S. Senate — the world's greatest deliberative body — would look like next year with these Tea Partiers as members. Bennett and Murkowski were known as Republicans who would cut deals. But what happens when you replace these folks with Lee or Miller? Then again, partisans on both the left and right want to blow up the Senate, so they very might get their wish."
And, Sarah Palin has a group of Senators beholden to her as she contemplates the Presidency.
In what could become one of the biggest political upsets of the year, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski trailed her tea party-backed opponent by a small margin Wednesday in Alaska's GOP primary with thousands of votes yet to be counted.
Attorney Joe Miller, who also had the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin, led Murkowski by less than three points with 98 percent of precincts reporting. Thousands of absentee ballots have not yet been added to the tally from Tuesday's vote – a process that could take up to two weeks to tabulate.
Who says Sarah Palin has NO sway with Alaska voters anymore?
Republican Nominee Carly Fiorina and California Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer
The latest California U.S. Senate poll
has the race in a dead heat.
Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are now essentially tied in California’s U.S. Senate race, moving the state from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 44% support, while Fiorina picks up 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Barbara Boxer continues to show vulnerability in this race. An earlier poll has shown Barbara Boxer 5 points behind Carly Fiorina.
This campaign will heat up in about a week when the ad campaigns begin.
I will go out on a limb and predict Carly Fiorina by 3-4 points.
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Television Ad from The Committee for Truth in Politics
Can you name
three things Senator Barbara Boxer has done to improve the quality of your life?
This ad undoubtedly will air in the Central Valley and Inland Empire, California. It will begin airing today.
I haven’t quite been the women’s tennis fan since Maria Sharapova sustained her injury a few years ago. I have looked from time to time to see if she has been playing but never caught any of her matches.
Now, there is this piece in the Wall Street Journal which chronicles her way back into tournament tennis.
Maria Sharapova is one of the hardest workers on the women’s tennis tour. She beats balls across nets and labors through agility training for hours on end. Those who know her and have coached her say unlike a lot of pros, she actually seems to enjoy playing tennis.
She was such a precocious talent and has been so prolifically photographed in glamorous advertising campaigns it’s easy to forget that she’s only 23, that she won three Grand Slam titles before attaining legal drinking age and has reached No. 1 on four different occasions—most recently in May, 2008, after she took the Australian Open without dropping a set.
As the U.S. Open approaches, Ms. Sharapova is still trying to fully regain the form she lost that same year after undergoing shoulder surgery, a procedure that sapped much of the bite from her lethal serve.
I am hoping she has a good U.S. Open.
By the way, Canon, her television commercials for your cameras were noteworthy. If she is not under a continuing contract, she should be.
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Day By Day by Chris Muir
Chris, what is more than mindnumbing is the American real estate market which continues to reel under the weight of Obamanomics.
Can’t the President and the Democrat controlled Congress see that the American Dream of home ownership has crashed under its own weight of largess? Can they not get out of the way so the real estate market can self-correct rather than prop up bloated real estate prices?
And, to think the Poker community thinks Representative Barney Frank is their answer to legalizing online poker? Look what Frank did to the real estate market.
The only redeeming thought is that the GOP will regain the majority in the House this November and Frank et. al. will be relegated into a minority role in the government.
It cannot happen too fast.
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