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September 26, 2010

MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Martin Wilson, C ampaign Manager, Carly for California
RE: Los Angeles Times Poll/CA Senate Race Update
________________________________________________________________________

The just-released poll by the Los Angeles Times is neither an accurate nor a reliable reflection of voter interest or likely participation in the upcoming election.

Simply put, the Times poll overestimates Democratic voter participation by a wide margin, hence it produced skewed results that are inconsistent with other public and private polling in this race, including the respected Field Poll released on Friday. Specifically, the poll’s sample indicates that self-identified Democrats will hold a 16.75 percent advantage over Republicans, which is at least double what other credible polls indicate. In addition to understating the Republican vote, its results are based on 9 percent
participation of independent voters when, again, other pollsters estimate that at least 20 percent of the electorate will be comprised of swing voters.

With such an errant sampling methodology, we are amazed that Boxer’s lead over Carly is not in the double digits as opposed to the eight-point advantage they are giving the incumbent. At this stage and in light of the dynamics of the race during the time this survey was in the field, that is a gap that can, and will, be bridged in the coming weeks.

For 10 days, while this survey was being conducted, Barbara Boxer spent several million dollars on unanswered advertising mischaracterizing both her own record and Carly’s record. It is notable that, despite this, Barbara Boxer was unable to increase her standing with voters in the Field Poll. We are now answering back with the launch of our advertising campaign just 72 hours ago, after both the Times and Field polls had been completed. As this campaign moves forward and as voters become aware of the facts about Barbara Boxer, the hyper-partisan career politician, the dynamics in this race will change quickly. Over the course of the next 38 days, the spotlight will be squarely on
Barbara Boxer and the low road she has taken toward achieving higher office. Carly will stand in stark contrast to Boxer’s record of failure: a bipartisan problem solver who will use her real-world business experience to find common-sense solutions to solving our state and nation’s problems. As that happens, the numbers in this race will move, so hold on to your hats for an exciting and competitive race to November 2.

Chris, American voters now understand how they were hoodwinked by Rahm Emanuel (now President Obama’s Chief of Staff) in the 2006 election cycle by portraying Democrats as conservatives in red-leaning Congressional Districts. Of course, said Democrats post-election, have voted for Speaker Pelosi’s Far-Left San Francisco agenda – in lockstep.

Now, voters will hold them accountable.

What is the difference between now and 2006?

No, it is not the fact that Rahm is no longer there (as the Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) to hold the Democratic Congressional candidate’s hand. Since this time, the internet has expanded and voters have more current information – like how their own Congressional Representatives have voted. YouTube, Twitter and Facebook have all contributed to the idiom: “You can run but you can’t hide.”

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