CA-Gov Poll Watch: Is Jerry Brown Really Ahead of Meg Whitman?
Well, if you believe the LA Times/USC poll Brown is ahead by five points (49%-44%) but there are some problems with the polling samples.
There is strong evidence why the LA Times/USC Poll is out-of-step with the California Field Poll, despite the fact that they polled voters at the same time. The Field Poll conducted interviews from September 14-21 and the LAT/USC Poll was in the field September 15-22. The most significant difference is that the LAT/USC poll under-sampled Republicans. That’s why its results differ so sharply from Field and all the other recently reported public polls, as well as our own internal polls. Field provides a far truer representation of California’s 2010 electorate, in our estimation.
My belief which is supported by the venerable California Field Poll and polling averages is that the election is very close. Look at the poll average graph below.
Pollster Interactive CA-Gov Poll Average Graph (Meg Whitman 45.7% Vs Jerry Brown 44.8%)
In my various social ventures (in person) outside the blogosphere nobody and I mean nobody is discussing Jerry Brown or Barbara Boxer – absolutely no idol conversation about the coming elections at all. There are no signs, bumper stickers or anything in the lefty parts of Los Angeles. I cannot foresee an enthusiastic turnout for the Democrats in November – at least not in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County.
This is a very good sign for Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.