The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance.
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Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud of our record over the years, but inevitably we will be wrong with some calls. Apologies for those in advance.

Students sometimes ask how I ever got into this game. I first published a state-by-state set of predictions in 1978. To my surprise, the exercise turned out well. In 1980 I won a DC-based election pool, and with that cash incentive, I was hooked. (No, I haven’t bet on elections in decades, and professional prognosticators shouldn’t.)

As of last night, in two separate tracking polls conducted over the last 72 hours, the race is now tied in one poll and Meg leads by +1 in the other. Among early voters who say they have already cast their ballots, Meg Whitman is leading by 3 points.

Field is a good poll. But it was taken from 10/14 to 10/25 and missed this movement. New TV ads, mail, and our very strong field operation (80 offices, 37,000+ volunteers, large direct mail program, large AB program) are all working in our favor.

GOP intensity, seen in early vote returns, is very high.

Meg is on road doing multiple events per day. Brown is largely absent from campaign trail. Rumored to be re-appearing this weekend. Some talk of a magic carpet being involved…

This is a tight race and while the public polls are down, most were taken a week or more ago. CA trend looking more and more like rest of US, despite blue state status. Brown has been stuck for months around 45%, looks like undecided voters are now moving

Ms. Whitman, trailing in every poll, has rolled out a big get-out-the-vote operation, funded with part of the $162 million she has spent on the race so far. The effort is a particularly sophisticated version of voter-mobilization pushes candidates and parties are ratcheting up with less than a week before Election Day.

Many candidates believe get-out-the-vote drives could hold the key to victory, especially in close races such as Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Washington and Illinois.

The big question, especially for Democrats, is what effect these increasingly elaborate initiatives will have in a year dominated by impassioned partisan divisions. Some voters appear intent on going to the polls regardless, while others seem stubbornly unmotivated. That could undermine a traditional advantage held by Democrats and their union backers in this area.
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Will these ground operations aid Carly Fiorina who is more favored in the polls?

Republican Ken Buck still holds a slight lead over incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet as Colorado’s U.S. Senate race heads down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Buck earning 48% support to Bennet’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
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Going down to the wire

Gallup's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.
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The trends are there and polling has not really accounted for a large wave for the GOP.

Washington could stand a dose of cutting costs, reducing bureaucracy and challenging the unhealthy sense of entitlement creeping into our culture. Sound like someone we need in a political leader? I think it does. Attacks on Fiorina focus on her decision to reduce the number of jobs and move jobs oversees. I would venture to say that every CEO who has ever fulfilled his or her corporate responsibilities during a time of economic downturn (as Fiorina experienced) makes similar moves. Every CEO weighs tax and regulatory implications as they choose where plants and people are located. In fact, it is these tough choices that qualify Fiorina for the U.S. Senate.
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Expressing the strongest public reservations about the conservative star made by any senior Republican figure, Mr Rove said it was unlikely that voters would regard someone starring in a reality show as presidential material.

In two weeks, the former governor of Alaska launches a cable television series exploring her home state’s wilderness.

“With all due candour, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel, I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of 'that helps me see you in the Oval Office’,” Mr Rove told The Daily Telegraph in an interview.

He added that the promotional clip for Sarah Palin’s Alaska could be especially detrimental to any political campaign. It features the mother of five in the great outdoors saying: “I would rather be doing this than in some stuffy old political office.”

Mr Rove, who remains a major force on the US political scene, also implied that Mrs Palin lacked the stomach for the rigours of a presidential primary

Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents. All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for Congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago, according to exit polls.

If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
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The GOP has only Obama, Pelosi and Reid to thank.

He had a rough go of it last time, but Rudy Giuliani just told me at City Hall at his portrait unveiling that "the door's not closed" on the possibility of him running for president again in 2012.

He said he won't think about anything until after the November midterm elections, and that he gets encouraged by people as he travels.

I asked, "So the door's not closed?" and he replied, "The door's not closed."

I'd heard from some Republican donors and insiders that he's discussed the possibility with them in recent months as well.
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Rudy will have a hard time winning in Iowa or South Carolina. Romney has New Hampshire locked up. But, with a split conservative base of Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich he could possibly win in Florida and California.

So, stay tuned……

An intense military campaign aimed at crippling the Taliban has so far failed to inflict more than fleeting setbacks on the insurgency or put meaningful pressure on its leaders to seek peace, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials citing the latest assessments of the war in Afghanistan.
Escalated airstrikes and special operations raids have disrupted Taliban movements and damaged local cells. But officials said that insurgents have been adept at absorbing the blows and that they appear confident that they can outlast an American troop buildup set to subside beginning next July.
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Well, Obama will likely pull out in July and say that he is against endless war or some other Lefty BS.

A series of new polls show that Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway’s now-infamous “Aqua Buddha” ad may have dramatically backfired and turned scores of wavering voters towards tea party favorite Rand Paul.

Conway’s disapproval ratings have jumped dramatically over the past week, a trend that makes it an even steeper challenge for the state attorney general to knock off Paul in the race to succeed GOP Sen. Jim Bunning. And the sharp turn-of-events has come in the immediate aftermath of Conway gaining serious traction in the race, when he appeared to have effectively moved it into a dead heat after waging a series of attacks against Paul’s views on Medicare.
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Hello Senator Rand Paul

Clark County is where three quarters of Nevada's residents and live and where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's son Rory is a county commissioner. Rory is also a Democratic candidate for governor.

Since early voting started, there have been credible reports that voting machines in Clark County, Nevada are automatically checking Harry Reid's name on the ballot:

Voter Joyce Ferrara said when they went to vote for Republican Sharron Angle, her Democratic opponent, Sen. Harry Reid's name was already checked.

Ferrara said she wasn't alone in her voting experience. She said her husband and several others voting at the same time all had the same thing happen.

"Something's not right," Ferrara said. "One person that's a fluke. Two, that's strange. But several within a five minute period of time — that's wrong."
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Time for the FBI to investigate

Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.

The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
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