Has the Democratic Party Become a Regional or Two State Party?
Graphic Courtesy of Smart Politics
Well, as I said at the time, this is NOT true, but have the Democrats with the recent election have continued the trend of being a New York and California party – a two state party. Looking at the table above, you would have to say the evidence is clear.
Despite losing six U.S. House seats in New York on November 2nd (with defeats in NY-01 and NY-25 still tentative), the Democratic Party nonetheless continues to be ever more a party of two coasts – with a particular emphasis on the Empire and Golden States.
A Smart Politics analysis of 81 election cycles dating back to 1850 finds that the Democratic Party is now comprised of a larger percentage of Californians and New Yorkers in the U.S. House than at any point since California joined the Union.
When the 112th Congress convenes in January, 28.1 percent of the Democratic caucus will hail from California (34 members) and New York (20 members).
What will this mean for the 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections?
Well, I don’t suppose too many campaign media dollars will be spent on statewide races in New York and California. And, any Presidential activity will be fundraising trips only.
It also means will be easier for the GOP to maintain its majority in the House and look at taking the majority in the U.S. Senate.
Now, New York and California still command a goodly number of Electoral College votes but Obama will have to win in the Midwest or he will be denied re-election.
Funny how political demographic perceptions change but really stay the same.