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links for 2010-12-21
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Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley are among the top 10 safest cities in the United States with populations of at least 100,000, according to 2009 FBI crime data analyzed by the two Ventura County cities.
Although the FBI advises against using the data for making such rankings because there are many variables that should be factored in before making valid comparisons of crime among different cities, Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley each conducted their own analysis based on crimes per 1,000 residents.
They both came to the same conclusion: Thousand Oaks is the fifth safest city in the country with a rate of 15.8 crimes per 1,000 residents, while Simi Valley is the eighth safest city with a rate of 17.7 crimes per 1,000 residents.
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Good to hear! -
Blue States = 242 EV
Red States = 253 EV
Swing Purple States = 43 EV -
She's back … 'Sarah Palin's Alaska' is such a huge hit for TLC that the network is busy trying to get the former governor to sign up for season two.
"3.066 million people turned in last week to see her episode with Kate Gosselin," a TLC insider tells me. "That is more people than are watching Bravo's 'Housewives' series or most other cable shows. For sure the network is doing everything it possibly can to convince Sarah to do another season, but at the end of the day it looks like it will all come down to money."
Sarah, who is reportedly making more than $250,000 per episode for the eight-week series, is no fool — when the show debuted to over 4.96 million viewers, insiders tell me she started talking about a new deal right away.
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I would say very likely, especially if Obama's poll numbers improve by April. -
So that leaves us with a top tier of five front-runners: Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Daniels. Romney is the organizational front-runner; Daniels is the first pick of wonks and D.C. eggheads; Palin probably has the most devoted following among actual voters. Gingrich will dominate the debates, and Pawlenty (vying with Daniels) is the least disliked.
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A fair assessment and it is Sarah Palin's to decline.Otherwise it looks like Mitt Romney Vs. Mitch Daniels or Newt Gingrich
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Census 2010: Gains and Losses in Congress
The Census Bureau rearranged the country’s political map on Tuesday, giving more Congressional seats to the South and the West, and taking away from the Northeast and the Midwest. The state population counts are the first results released from the 2010 Census, and are used to reapportion seats in Congress, and, in turn, the Electoral College.
The United State population grew to 308,745,538 over the last decade, an increase of 9.7 percent, the slowest rate of growth since 1940.
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Nice graphs of censis data -
Apportionment after each decennial Census is required by the United States Constitution. Article 1 Section 2 says “the actual Enumeration shall be made…within every subsequent Term of ten years.” Over time, America’s population shifts, and Congress adjusts by apportioning its members according to each new set of Census results. For each House seat shifted, one Electoral College vote shifts.
The 2010 apportionment of Congressional districts among the 50 states is brings Western states’ gains to 26 Congressional seats since the 1970s, with the South picking up 27. The Northeast has now lost 26 seats and the Midwest 27 over the same period. The disparity in population growth will significantly alter the makeup of the House of Representatives. In the 1970s, the Midwest and Northeast together made up 52% of Congress. After 2010, they will hold only 40% of the seats. The Northeast alone held 104 seats in the 1970s, but that number is now down to 78.
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Read it all -
And yet Republican opposition to the deal has essentially crumbled. I think the Republicans are foolish to have gone ahead rather than hold out for full consideration in the new Congress. But I understand that it is hard to resist the entreaties of the entire foreign policy establishment and to set up the president to fail.
We should also keep this all in perspective. The treaty, as I and others have argued, is not an earth-shaking matter, especially compared to the real nuclear threats we face from North Korea and Iran. But through the hard bargaining of Sen. Jon Kyl (R.-Ariz.) the administration ponied up for weapon modernization and showed some commitment to missile defense programs. In sum, Kyl got more from Obama than the U.S. is getting from Russia.
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Read it all.Would have been better to rethink this treaty in the next Congress
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Most of the media coverage of the 2010 Census will likely focus on the country's changing racial composition and the redistribution of seats in Congress. But neither of these is the most important finding. Rather, it is the dramatic increase in the size of the U.S. population itself that has profound implications for our nation's quality of life and environment. Most of the increase has been, and will continue to be, a result of one federal policy: immigration. Projections into the future from the Census Bureau show we are on track to add 130 million more people to the U.S. population in the just the next 40 years, primarily due to future immigration.
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Read it all.The impacts are pretty dramatic.
Immigration policy needs a redo.
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The Sun Belt will gain new seats in Congress as the U.S. population continued to shift south and west, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and its director, Dr. Robert Groves.
The new data show the country grew at a slower pace than it has in earlier decades. But states in the south grew at a faster rate than states in the Rust Belt. Those states will give up some representation in Congress, while southern states will grow in influence.
Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah and Washington State will all gain members of Congress. Texas's delegation will grow the most, adding four seats. Florida gained two seats, while Arizona gained one seat.
Meanwhile, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey and Louisiana will each lose House seats. New York and Ohio, two states hard hit by generations of migration and more recent industrial stagnation, will lose two seats each.
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GOP Gains -
In sum, when Republicans misstep on the issue of race, they are rightly and roundly lambasted. Some complain about a double standard (Harry Reid said dumb things, too!), but the fact remains that the vast majority of modern conservatives don't tolerate this sort of thing, and it can be fatal to one's political aspirations.
And finally, this is a reminder that candidates who look promising in 2010 may not be around for long, and those who stay out of the fray for as long as possible may be the savviest contenders.
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This is why Sarah Palin will keep her powder dry and assess her ability to beat Obama as late in the Spring 2011 as she can.
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Rep. Elton Gallegly Named Vice Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Committee
Representative Elton Gallegly, R-Simi Valley and Flap, January 15, 2010, Thousand Oaks, California
From the press release:Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA) today was named Vice Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee by incoming Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida.
“Congressman Gallegly is a very valued, experienced and effective Member of this Committee and is very familiar with the global challenges facing us today, as well as with leaders around the world who we must work with closely to address those challenges. I greatly look forward to working with him and getting his input on the direction that our Committee should take in the next Congress,” Ros-Lehtinen said.
“I appreciate incoming Chairman Ros-Lehtinen providing me with this opportunity to serve the full committee as Vice Chairman,” Gallegly said. “The United States and our allies face many challenges and it is critical that the House Foreign Affairs Committee lead Congress in meeting those challenges.”Gallegly is a senior member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and currently Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Europe, which he chaired the last time Republicans were in the majority. He is finishing up his third term on the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and its Terrorism, Human Intelligence, Analysis and Counterintelligence Subcommittee. For years, Rep. Gallegly has been in the forefront of homeland security and the United States’ war against terrorism.As a senior member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Gallegly has worked with America’s European allies to fight terrorism here and abroad. He has met with more than 50 heads of state, government delegations, or members of foreign legislative bodies here and abroad. He introduced and passed major NATO expansion legislation and represented the House of Representatives at the NATO summit in Prague at the request of President Bush.
In 2008, he was the only member of Congress to fly to Pakistan to meet with the country’s then-President Pervez Musharraf the day after the elections that brought a new Parliament to power. He also flew to Israel to meet with then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and then-Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Israeli-Palestinian relations and other Middle Eastern issues, and to tour Sderot, an Israeli town under siege from rockets fired from Hamas-controlled Gaza.During the 108th Congress, Rep. Gallegly was handpicked by then-Foreign Affairs Chairman Henry Hyde to chair the newly created Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights. As such, Gallegly chaired one of the first hearings on the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations, a hearing that led to eight provisions being included in the final bill.
In January 2004, Gallegly – representing the Foreign Affairs Committee – and former Rep. Curt Weldon representing the Armed Services Committee led a congressional delegation of three other members to Libya to meet with Moammar Gadhafi after the Libyan strongman denounced terrorism and agreed to open his country to international arms inspectors. It was the first American delegation to travel to Tripoli in about 30 years.
Six weeks later, Gallegly chaired a meeting with family members of the victims of Pan Am 103 to discuss their pending settlement against Libya.
A great appointment for an excellent Congressman.
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California NOT So Bad? Are You Kidding Me?
Jennifer Rubin asks the question.A reader calls my attention to an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times by Bill Lockyer, the state’s Democratic treasurer, and Stephen Levy, the director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. The two argue that California’s not all that bad.
Read all of her piece.
Let’s see:
- High Unemployment rate = 12.4% – Unemployed people number 2,267,000 up 40,000 from November 2009.
- Massive state budget deficit ($28 Billion) with no hope of balance
- Sky high real estate prices with high foreclosure rates
- California businesses leaving the state in record numbers
I am a native Californian and have lived here for over fifty years and have never seen economic conditions so grim.
The California Democratic Party has had control of the Legislature (except for some brief periods) for most of my life (6 decades). They have simply spent the state into insolvency.
Not so bad?
Ridiculous – it is worse.
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U.S. Census Shows Slow Population Growth and Likely Republican Party Gains
Utah gained one Congressional seat, adding 530,716 new residents since 2000, according to the 2010 census. Arches National Park, Moab, Utah. Photo By Flap
The 2010 census is out and the South and West are among the winning states.Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nation’s population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.
The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.
Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.
The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belt’s expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.
That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.
In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.
Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
But, a lot of growth was from immigration and how the new people are assimilated, population growth accommodated (infrastructure provided) or if they can be are issues that will soon come to the forefront with the next Congress beginning next month.
The Rose Institute has an excellent analysis here.
California has picked up 10 Congressional seats since 1970, growing from 43 in the 1970s to 53 today. Seven of those ten came in one decade alone (after the 1990 census). California gained two districts in 1980, seven in 1990, and another seat in 2000. One contributor to California’s population surge between 1980 and 1990 was the Reagan administration’s large military build-up. The military growth boosted the California economy, which attracted immigration from throughout the country. Between 1980 and 1990, California’s population increased by about 6 million people. Alone among the otherwise high-growth southwestern states, in the past ten years California’s growth slowed to the national average.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Why Sarah Palin Will Be the GOP Nominee – If Sarah Wants It
From PPP Polling: Conservative FavorabilityThe rest of the polling data, commentary and charts are here.It is clear that this race will be Sarah Palin’s to decide – one way or another.My contention for some time is that Palin will NOT run if the economy improves slightly and President Obama’s poll numbers in key battleground states rebound.
Palin is a proven fundriaiser with excellent name identification, can afford to wait and assess her chances late next Spring. If Sarah runs, the chances that Mike Huckabee will run are very remote (Palin will dry up his campaign cash). She will clear the field except for Gingrich and Romney (who will self-fund again).
Newt Gingrich, however, has such personal baggage after he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be out.
Social conservatives in Iowa, South Carolina will propel Palin over Romney easily, while Mitt wins New Hampshire. Then, we come to Nevada, Florida and then Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah). The GOP Presidential Primary calendar is here.
I suspect Senator Marco Rubio will help Palin in Florida and Rudy Giuliani, plus Carly Fiorina in New York and California.
Unless Sarah self-implodes with a major GAFFE, I do not see a path on how Mitt Romney can beat her.
So, the race for the GOP Presidential nomination is really Sarah Palin’s to decide.
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Day By Day December 21, 2010 – Lions of the Senate
GOP Sentate Minority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky will bear watching this next year. He has been duplicitous to the RIGHT before and seen as a RINO compromiser. Look at this Big Government Food Bill. There really is no reason to accommodate the Democrats on Harry Reid’s mistake.A landmark food safety bill that aims to modernize America’s food inspection regimen appeared destined for the ash heap until the Senate rejuvenated it Sunday in one of the last acts of a busy lame-duck Congress.
The Senate approved the food bill Nov. 30, but a procedural mistake meant that its funding was tied to a now-scuttled omnibus spending bill. Without a funding mechanism in place by the time the new Congress takes its seat in January, the food safety law — the first major upgrade in the US inspections process in 70 years – would be a nonstarter.
Food safety advocates say they knew ultimate passage of the Food Safety and Modernization Act could go down to the wire given grumblings that it amounts to an unnecessary expansion of federal powers to regulate what goes on the American kitchen table
More Big Government from the Obama Administration and the GOP Senate makes accommodations?
I know one or two NEW Senators taking office in January who will hold McConnell and his leadership accountable to the Constitution and conservative principles: Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.
Calling Senator Jim DeMint as the new Republican leader?
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