President 2012 Poll Watch: Why Sarah Palin Will Be the GOP Nominee – If Sarah Wants It
Posted by Flap in Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin
From PPP Polling: Conservative Favorability
My contention for some time is that Palin will NOT run if the economy improves slightly and President Obama’s poll numbers in key battleground states rebound.
Palin is a proven fundriaiser with excellent name identification, can afford to wait and assess her chances late next Spring. If Sarah runs, the chances that Mike Huckabee will run are very remote (Palin will dry up his campaign cash). She will clear the field except for Gingrich and Romney (who will self-fund again).
Newt Gingrich, however, has such personal baggage after he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be out.
Social conservatives in Iowa, South Carolina will propel Palin over Romney easily, while Mitt wins New Hampshire. Then, we come to Nevada, Florida and then Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah). The GOP Presidential Primary calendar is here.
I suspect Senator Marco Rubio will help Palin in Florida and Rudy Giuliani, plus Carly Fiorina in New York and California.
Unless Sarah self-implodes with a major GAFFE, I do not see a path on how Mitt Romney can beat her.
So, the race for the GOP Presidential nomination is really Sarah Palin’s to decide.
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