Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 Poll Watch: Why Sarah Palin Will Be the GOP Nominee – If Sarah Wants It


From PPP Polling: Conservative Favorability

The rest of the polling data, commentary and charts are here.It is clear that this race will be Sarah Palin’s to decide – one way or another.

My contention for some time is that Palin will NOT run if the economy improves slightly and President Obama’s poll numbers in key battleground states rebound.

Palin is a proven fundriaiser with excellent name identification, can afford to wait and assess her chances late next Spring. If Sarah runs, the chances that Mike Huckabee will run are very remote (Palin will dry up his campaign cash). She will clear the field except for Gingrich and Romney (who will self-fund again).

Newt Gingrich, however, has such personal baggage after he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be out.

Social conservatives in Iowa, South Carolina will propel Palin over Romney easily, while Mitt wins New Hampshire. Then, we come to Nevada, Florida and then Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah). The GOP Presidential Primary calendar is here.

I suspect Senator Marco Rubio will help Palin in Florida and Rudy Giuliani, plus Carly Fiorina in New York and California.

Unless Sarah self-implodes with a major GAFFE, I do not see a path on how Mitt Romney can beat her.

So, the race for the GOP Presidential nomination is really Sarah Palin’s to decide.

6 Comments

  • gary walter

    I rather see Mike Huckabee taking the nomination rather than Sarah. He has more experience ande polls much better vs. Obama. He has strong support in Iowa and Ithink will win there. After that South Carolina seems much more promising this time around and Florida, where Huckabee was the first to support Marco Rubio (Rubio was Huckabee’s campaign co-chair last time around in Florida), I think will fall in line. Sarah will have lost her luster with the losses in Iowa and SC and hopefully conservatives will not go for Romney. After that I hope to see a unifying around Huck and then a big unity as he beats BHO.

  • TaterSalad

    Watching how the Republicans are caving in to the Democrats and their demands during this “lame duck session” is of great concern to me as a Tea Party member since Feb. 2009. S. Palin can be trusted with our Constitution while there are some Republicans who are either RINO’s or just plane, just don’t get it yet and they will have to be replaced.

  • Angelo

    I think you have wrong analysis, gary walter. The pollster about who among the GOP nominees can beat Obama is just a diversionary tactic from Obama’s legions of supporters from the elite media so that they can manipulate the American public that Sarah Palin is unelectable. I am a traveling businessman and I have some sources from Miami all the way to washington that there is a black propaganda designed by the elite media and lefty liberals to discourage the independents and moderate republicans to choose Palin as GOP nominee. Let us just watch what will happen in the next two years. If Obama’s leadership will continue to fail, he will lose big time from Sarah Palin. I can bet my one year salary on this one. Will you accept my challenge?? The American people now is leaning to the right and they are tired of establishment GOP politicians like Huck, Romney, Gingrich and Pawlenty. American people now is hungry for fresh blood politicians like Palin, Jindal, Rubio, West and Ryan. Let me ask you something one simple question? why did Obama win the DNC nomination over Hillary? It is because American people wanted a change coming from young blood politicians, and they are very tired of Washington elites and they thought that Obama is an outsider. Sarah Palin used be unknown to Mainland America and why suddenly she become popular after she was chosen to be the VP nominee last 2008?? In spite of a loss, why is she remains popular till now?? The simple answer is american people like me perceives her as a young blood political leader and an outsider from washington who can be a real change…and mind you, she has a wonderful record of true reforms in Alaska. Use your common sense, bro, because, not all intellectual people have great common sense.