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Archive for December, 2010

election2010map President 2012: The First Map of Battleground States Updated
Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.

Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:

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Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.

Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:

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And, the states that gained Electoral Votes:

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Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):

  • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
  • Virginia – 13
  • Colorado – 9
  • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
  • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
  • Wisconsin -10
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Indiana – 11
  • North Carolina – 15

And, I think, at least for now, pending any dramatic change in party identification I will stay with these states.

The question for the GOP will be: Who will be the best candidate in these nine states to match up against President Barack Obama?

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7hcefomukkzriiembmfzw95 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

And, 5 of the 8 states picking up congressional seats tilt to the GOP.

ml1evzsnyusz6txglpmfia9 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic
Plus, with the Republicans winning or holding 29 Governorships, the perfect storm for controlling the Congress over the decade is almost complete.
The full political implications of congressional seat losses in 10 Democratic states remain to be seen, and will in large part depend on the process of redistricting that will now get underway in each state. It is assumed that Democrats will lose some representation in the House as a net result of this process, but the precise way this will play out is not entirely clear. Similarly, although the majority of the states gaining seats are Republican in orientation, it is not clear whether the newly created House districts in each of those states will necessarily end up with a Republican representative, although it can be assumed that the net number of Republican seats in these states will increase.

The impact of reapportionment on the presidential election process is more straightforward. Traditionally blue states are losing electoral votes, while traditionally red states are gaining them. Various calculations have shown that Barack Obama would still have won the 2008 election even if the electoral votes were divided based on the new census apportionment. But the shift in population between states could give a Republican candidate just enough of an edge to bring victory in a close 2012 presidential race.

But, let’s see if the GOP can hold its majority. They have blown it before – remember 2006?

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Edge Health Solutions, Inc. introduces edgeDMS for iPad, a touch based dental charting application designed exclusively for the innovative iPad from Apple, Inc. for use with edgeDMS available from Edge EHR Corp. www.edgeehr.com

From the press release:
Edge EHR Corp., EDGE, a provider of Dental  Practice Management solutions for the Mac OS®, is pleased to announce the release of edgeDMS™ for iPad® for Dentists and Dental offices looking to leverage the awesome power of the Apple® iPad.

The launch of edgeDMS for iPad sets a new standard for dental practice management with the most elegant and intuitive dental charting solution available today.  The edgeDMS Perio chart quickly captures pocket & recession depths, tooth mobility, and furcation values with a few taps.  Extracted, impacted, and erupted states are recorded with a swipe.  “Native is best!  Competitors using VNC (Virtual Network Computing) or browser based applications to bring iPad functionality to the practice just don’t understand the power of the Apple iPad’s iOS touch capabilities,” said Edge CEO, Troy Spracklin, referring to the multi-touch workflows available in edgeDMS for iPad. 

Dental professionals can quickly search for patient records, access patient histories and chart new exams with a series of taps and swipes on the their iPad.  “It’s iPad easy!  Tap a patient, review the history and chart a new exam with your fingertip — no more pencils,” said Spracklin.

“I’ve been an edgeDMS user in my dental practice for several years. It has worked seamlessly for my needs, and with the introduction of version 2.5 with an iPad App I couldn’t be more excited to perform routine evaluations and updates on my periodontal patients. Edge has created a new gold standard in all dental management software, let alone Mac based systems. Edge with iPad will be working to enhance my periodontal practice in expected Apple style,” says existing edgeDMS user, Dr. Stephen Chermol, DMD, PC from West Chester, PA.

Exam details including observations, etiology, diagnosis and patient recommendations are also quickly recorded on each patient visit using the iPad with or without a bluetooth keyboard. In addition, edgeDMS for iPad also features an integrated picture and digital X-ray browser allowing providers to add, review and share intra-oral images, photos and digital x-rays with their patients at chair-side.  edgeDMS running on a Mac desktop makes it simple to view any patient record in the office or on the go through a secure VPN tunnel for providers seeking mobile empowerment  where no patient data resides on the iPad device.  Add in iPad’s remote data wipe features and security is covered.

The future is today and should further reduce the costs of record keeping and managment.

20101222110036enprnprn3 Announcing edgeDMS for iPad, Native Touch Based Clinical Charting Software for the Paperless Dental Office

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captbabc5c0280574876946 Poll Watch: Mit Romney Crashing and Burning in Florida and North Carolina

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

I think so.
When PPP first polled Florida Republicans in March about who they wanted as their 2012 nominee 52% of them picked Mitt Romney when given the choices of him, Mike Huckabee (who got 21%), and Sarah Palin (who received 18%).

When PPP next asked Florida Republicans about 2012 in July Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul’s names were added into the mix and although Romney maintained the lead it wasn’t nearly as strong. He was at 31%, followed by Palin and Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 15%, and Paul at 6%.

When PPP asked about it in late October even more names were in the pool and Romney’s support declined even further. He was down to 28% with Palin at 22%, Huckabee and Gingrich at 15%, and a variety of other Republicans combining for 8%.

Now Romney’s lead in Florida is completely gone. The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee’s 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.

Why? Mitt Romney is no longer the conservative alternative to Sarah Palin. With Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich in the race, Mitt comes off as the least conservative of the three.

In North Carolina, Romney does not come off very well either.

In North Carolina we see a good old log jam with Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin tied at 21%, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied at 18%, and the rest of the Republicans combining for 12%. This is another state where Romney’s conservative problem rears its head. He has a strong advantage with moderates as 30% of them say he’s their top choice with none of the other Republicans rising above 15%. But he posts yet another fourth place finish with conservatives at only 14%, with Palin at 24%, Gingrich at 22%, and Huckabee at only 19%.

Mitt Romney certainly will run for President in 2012. But, besides his popularity in New Hampshire he will fade when the South Carolina and Florida primary elections are held.

It could very well be Mike Huckabee’s and/or Newt Gingrich’s year unless Mitch Daniels or John Thune can catch fire.

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The latest from Democratic Pollster PPP.

The race for president is similarly jumbled-up. Mike Huckabee barely edges Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, 23-21-18, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, John Thune at 1%, and 10% undecided. Romney tops with moderates over Huckabee and Gingrich, 25-23-15, but they make up only a quarter of the votes. The 70% who call themselves conservative break down very similarly to the overall electorate.

Interesting about Sarah Palin that William Kristol of the Weekly Standard is ponticifating that Palin will NOT run in 2012 but will support a candidate and continue to be a force in the GOP – but out of office for now.

Again, I think Sarah could win the GOP nomination but struggle against President Obama in the fall general election. Unless, Obama’s polling is severely in the dumpster, Sarah will keep her powder dry, run for U.S. Senate from Alaska in 2014 or simply wait for political opportunities while racking in the media big bucks.

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jebbush FL Sen Poll Watch: GOP Favors Jeb Bush to Face Dem Senator Bill Nelson

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

A good and wise choice.

If Jeb Bush would let them, Florida’s GOP faithful would crown him their Senate nominee in 2012 without a contest.  When given an eight-candidate list of potential nominees, they give Bush almost three-quarters of the vote, and no one else gets more than 6%.Unfortunately for the party, he is unlikely to run, and in his absence, almost a third of respondents are undecided.  In that case, their primary is likely to be a large and wide-open race, with the top four candidates bunched in the mid- to low teens.

Bush is the preference of 72% of the hardest-core Republican voters in the Sunshine State.  The next closest option is outgoing Attorney General and Gubernatorial primary loser Bill McCollum at 6%, with George LeMieux, Connie Mack IV, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, and state Rep. Jennifer Carroll each at 3%, Mike Haridopolos at 1%, and Adam Hasner at less than 1%.  10% are either not sure or prefer someone else. 

With Bush eliminated from the field, though, any one of the lesser options could win at this point.  A full 31% have no idea who they would support, and of the remaining voters, 15% choose Mack, 14% McCollum, 11% LeMieux, 10% Carroll, 9% Haridopolos, 7% Buchanan, and 3% Hasner.  Considering the margin of error, almost all of them are statistically tied for the lead.  Tuesday’s release showed that Haridopolos, Hasner, and even LeMieux and Mack are essentially unknowns statewide, and that is still the case with these most dedicated partisans who ought to know them best.  So all of these possible nominees have plenty of time to make a name for themselves and fill the Bushless void.

But, alas, unless someone persuades him, it is unlikely Bush will run.

Really a shame since Bush, despite his open-borders mentality would certainly be a better Senator than Democrat Bill Nelson.

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6a00d834519bda69e201116 RNC Chairmanship Race: Reince Priebus the Front Runner?

Reince Priebus and Michael Steele

Looks like it.

Conversations with a number of strategists close to the RNC – and its 168 voting members – suggest that none of the six candidates in the running are anywhere close to securing the 85 votes needed to claim the chairmanship.

But two tiers of candidates have begun to emerge, with the top three seen as potential winners and the bottom three regarded as longer shots. Given the number of undecided voters and the unpredictability of the ballot process, though, it’s hard to count anyone out at the moment.

Chris Cilliza ranks the candidates.

But, it is difficult to do an accurate whip count at this time.

Now, if Sarah Palin weighs into this race who will she support?

Michael Steele?

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