• Del.icio.us Links

    links for 2011-02-15

    • A few days ago, when news broke that Sarah Palin had hired a chief of staff, many took it as a sign that the former Alaska governor was finally stamping a formal structure on her freewheeling political operation. The arrival of Palin's new chief of staff, Michael Glassner, a GOP political operative from New Jersey, ignited renewed speculation that she was planning a 2012 White House run. But rather than indicating an increasingly focused organization ramping up for a campaign, the real story may be that the operation is running pretty much the way it always has, which, this being Sarah Palin, is barely controlled chaos. More than two years after her national debut, Palin is still having trouble retaining key advisers: Glassner's arrival comes not long after Palin had a falling out with one of her most loyal aides.

      +++++++

      Read it all

      Certainly a defect in her operation

      (tags: sarah_palin)
    • Obama's game is transparent, isn't it? He is playing a game of chicken. He puts forward a series of proposals that he knows are more or less insane; but he also believes that Republicans will come to his rescue. They, not being wholly irresponsible, will come up with plans to reform entitlements–like, for example, the Ryan Roadmap. Ultimately, some combination of those plans will be implemented because the alternative is the collapse, not just of the government of the United States, but of the country itself. But Obama thinks the GOP's reforms will be unpopular, and he will be able to demagogue them, thus having his cake and eating it too. Is that leadership? Of course not. But it is the very essence of Barack Obama.

      ++++++++

      Read it all.

      Obama cares about ONLY one thing – RE-ELECTION – so he kicks the budget can down the road.

      (tags: barack_obama)
    • Are you a loser? If you are the Heritage Foundation, Media Research Center, Family Research Council, Concerned Women for America, the American Principles Project, Jim DeMint, Jim Jordan, Rush Limbaugh (given his comments yesterday on CPAC), and others — you are losers.

      Grover Norquist says so. Norquist, last week, called those who chose not to participate in CPAC and those who share those views “losers.”

      But wait . . . there’s more.

      I’m not even going to get into Americans for Tax Reform suddenly opposing an end to the ethanol subsidy on the grounds that it would be a tax hike.

      ++++++

      Read it all

      And, I agree.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Colorado GOP Poll Watch: Romney 19% Palin 16% Huckabee 16% Gingrich 12%

    The latest PPP Poll is out and Mitt Romney is barely leading the field.

    • Mitt Romney – 19%
    • Sarah Palin – 16%
    • Mike Huckabee – 16%
    • Newt Gingrich – 12%
    • Ron Paul – 9%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 7%
    • John Thune – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    Mitt Romney’s lead in Colorado adds to first place polls in Arizona, California and Nevada.

    Romney manages leads, albeit narrow ones, with both conservative and moderate voters in Colorado. Among conservatives he gets 18% with Palin right behind at 17%, Huckabee at 15%, Gingrich at 13%, and Paul with a rare performance hitting double digits at 10%. With moderates Romney has 22% to Huckabee’s 20%, and 10% for Palin and Gingrich.

    In some states where Romney leads he doesn’t have the highest favorability of the Republican candidates but is first anyway because he’s seen as more Presidential than some of the other folks who are better liked. But that’s not the case in Colorado- he’s first for the nomination choice and first in popularity. 60% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him with Palin and Huckabee at 59% and Gingrich at 54% coming in further behind.

    The full poll is here (Pdf).

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    President 2012: Should the GOP Worry About their Presidential Candidates?

    Nate Silver’s 2012 GOP Presidential Field on recent Favorability Surveys

    Yes, but it is, what it is.

    So it does look like Republicans have some legitimate reason to worry. In the previous five competitive primaries — excluding 2004 for the Republicans, when Mr. Bush won re-nomination uncontested — each party had at least two candidates whose net favorability ratings were in the positive double digits, meaning that their favorables bettered their unfavorables by at least 10 points. All five times, also, the nominee came from among one of the candidates in this group. Republicans have no such candidates at this point in time.

    Meanwhile, the Republicans have two candidates in Ms. Palin and Mr. Gingirch whose net favorability ratings are actually  in the double-digit negatives, something which since 2000 had only been true of Pat Buchanan and Al Sharpton.

    There are plenty of examples of candidates who became considerably more popular (like Hillary Rodham Clinton) or considerably more unpopular (like Elizabeth Dole and Mr. Giuliani) over the course of an election campaign, so none of this is set in stone, especially for the candidates who aren’t yet well-known. Likewise, it’s hard to say what Barack Obama’s standing will look like by November 2012 (right now, his favorability ratings are 51 percent favorable against 41 percent unfavorable).

    I would quarrel with Ms. Rubin’s notion that Republicans are squandering a “golden opportunity.” On the one hand, incumbent presidents aren’t easy to beat; on the other, the identity of the opposition candidate only matters within a fairly narrow interval (when the president’s approval rating is between roughly 40 percent and 50 percent). But unless a candidate like Mr. Clinton emerges, Republicans may well be at some risk of underachieving.

    Nate silver who slants to the LEFT is right on the money here.

    President Obama will be difficult to beat and the Republicans have a weak field of candidates.

    So, what to do?

    Do NO harm to the Senate, Statehouse or House candidates and regroup for 2016 when the GOP candidate field is more experienced and not running against an incumbent.

  • Mitch Daniels

    Why Mitch Daniels Will NOT Run for the Presidency

    Audio: Mitch Daniels’ speech at the 2011 Conservative Political Action Conference

    I think Rich Lowry over at National Review has it about right.

    To all of this, Daniels the anti-panderer would surely say, “Here I stand, I can do no other.” At CPAC, he again proved himself centered, clear-eyed, and honest. He’s the kind of guy who makes you think, “He should run for president — and probably won’t.”

  • Jeff Flake,  Joe Arpaio

    AZ-Sen GOP Poll Watch: Sheriff Joe Arpaio Leads the Republican Pack

    Maricopa, Ariz. Sheriff Joe Arpaio prepares to speak to a crowd in the East Room on the grounds of the Nixon Presidential Library & Museum in Yorba Linda, Calif. on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2011

    If Sheriff Joe runs will he be a formidable candidate?

    Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio led a field of potential Republican Senate candidates in Arizona with 21 percent in a poll of likely GOP primary voters last week.

    Rep. Jeff Flake, who announced his candidacy for the seat of retiring Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) on Monday, finished second with 16.8 percent in the Summit Consulting Group survey. Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth took third, with 16.6 percent. He was unsuccessful in his primary challenge to Sen. John McCain last year.

    The auto-dial poll of 1,881 likely GOP primary voters was conducted Thursday. It had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, which would put the top three finishers in a statistical tie.

    Perhaps, but I think the nominee will likely be GOP Rep. Jeff Flake. I doubt Sheriff Joe runs – Maricopa County Sheriff is a better position anyway.

    But, I would relish the fireworks between Sheriff Joe and former Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano race though.

  • Dean Heller,  John Ensign,  Sharron Angle

    NV-Sen GOP Poll Watch: Rep. Dean Heller Ready to Unseat Sen. John Ensign?

    Nevada Rep Dean Heller speaking on House floor against ObamaCare

    It certainly looks like it in this private, commissioned poll.

    Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV) “all but telegraphed his intention” to challenge Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) in a GOP primary by giving Jon Ralston a poll he commissioned showing he leads the incumbent senator by double-digits, 53% to 38%.

    “The survey, taken last month, is the strongest indication yet that Heller will take on Ensign — otherwise, I would not have these results because if he were not running, these numbers would never have seen the light of day. He took a poll to gauge his competitiveness, and these results have to have thrilled him.”

    Yes, Heller will run and beat the ethics challenged Senator Ensign – if Ensign even runs for re-election. I doubt Ensign bothers to run.

    Watch Sharron Angle manuver to run for Dean Heller’s Congressional seat.

  • Jason Chaffetz,  Orrin Hatch

    UT-Sen Poll Watch: Rep. Jason Chaffetz Within 10 Points of Senator Orrin Hatch

    GOP Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz

    Is there any wonder why Orrin Hatch was snuggling up to the Tea Party at CPAC last week?

    A new Deseret News-KSL poll shows Rep. Jason Chaffetz is just 10 points behind Sen. Orrin Hatch, even though he isn’t in the race — yet.

    In a GOP primary, 44 percent of the Utahns surveyed statewide said they’d vote for Hatch over Chaffetz, while 34 percent picked the congressman over the senator.

    Hatch also led Chaffetz among the poll respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, 51-35 percent. But those who called themselves “very conservative” chose Chaffetz over Hatch, again 51-35 percent.

    The poll, conduced Feb. 8-10 by Dan Jones & Associates of 496 residents, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. The firm has conducted research for Hatch.

    The results suggest Hatch is vulnerable in his 2012 reelection bid, University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said Monday.

    “The concern Hatch’s people have had all along is somebody like a Rep. Chaffetz would be a big risk to them because he would be seen as a newer face,” Burbank said.

    Hatch has been trying to shore up his conservative credentials, Burbank said, to avoid facing the same sort of anti-establishment “revolt” that ended former Sen. Bob Bennett’s reelection bid at last year’s state GOP convention.

    Whether that’s enough, though, remains to be seen.

    Orrin Hatch is in trouble and may very well go the way of Senator Bob Bennett who lost renomination last year.

    Hatch is a long term POL, old and Utah voters may want a change. Now, will Rep. Chaffetz run?

  • Bill Nelson,  Connie Mack,  Jeb Bush

    FL-Sen Poll Watch: Sen. Bill Nelson Vulnerable to GOP Challengers

    Democrat Florida U.S. Senator Bill Nelson

    This is a likely pick-up seat for the GOP in 2012.

    Florida Sen. Bill Nelson falls short of the 50 percent mark against five potential Republican opponents, according to a poll commissioned by Ron Sachs Communications and conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.

    The survey, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows former Gov. Jeb Bush as the most powerful Republican challenger for Nelson. Bush leads the senator by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent.

    But Bush is not considered likely to run, and the polling memo notes that a challenge from the former governor is a “bullet [Nelson] will likely get to dodge.”

    That means the Democrat will face off against a Republican who lacks Bush’s high profile and statewide popularity, such as Rep. Connie Mack, former Sen. George LeMieux, state Senate President Mike Haridopolos or former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner.

    Nelson fared better against all four of those candidates in the Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll, though he failed to win a majority of the vote in any match-up.

    The closest race would be between Nelson and Mack, whose father – Connie Mack III – Nelson replaced in the Senate. Nelson would have just a 5-point advantage over Mack, leading 45 percent to 40 percent.

    Against LeMieux, Nelson’s lead widens to 14 points — he’s ahead 49 percent to 35 percent. Nelson has a 23-point lead over Haridopolo (48 percent to 25 percent), and a 22-point lead over Hasner (46 percent to 22 percent).

    The poll was taken from Feb. 9-10 and tested 625 registered voters.

    If former Florida Governor Jewb Bush EVER wanted to re-enter the political arena, this is the race. It is Jeb’s for the taking.

    If Jeb declines, then I would consider his political career over.