Barack Obama,  President 2012

President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval State By State – How the GOP Can Win

As we know the Presidential election in 2012 is really 50 separate state elections (except D.C, of course). Here is the latest from Gallup on how well President Obama is doing on a state by state basis in the approval ratings.

Half of the 10 most approving states in 2010 were located in the Northeast: New York, Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Three exceptions were Maryland, California, and Obama’s home state of Illinois. All of these states tilt significantly more Democratic in terms of political party identification than the national average.

Five of the 10 least approving states in 2010 were in the West: Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, and Montana. The other least approving states were mostly in the middle of the country, including Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Kansas.

Here is the list:

Remember there are ONLY 7-10 key battleground states in the 2012 Presidential race. So, it is interesting to look at this data with regards to those states, because it simply does not matter how many voters in California approve of Obama, since this state is a lock for him.

A look at the 20 states in which Obama’s approval rating is within three points of the national average may well provide a preview of where the most intense campaigning will occur in the coming 2012 presidential election. Most presidential elections are fought over the so-called swing states, whose voters can tilt enough in one political direction or the other to make their state competitive. Obama’s 2010 presidential approval ratings would suggest that states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada — all of which have average Obama approval ratings within one point of the national average — may once again be the battlegrounds of the coming election.

I think we can say that from this poll that these states:

  • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
  • Virginia – 13
  • Colorado – 9
  • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
  • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
  • Wisconsin -10
  • New Hampshire – 4
  • Indiana – 11
  • North Carolina – 15

and add in Pennyslvania -20: -1 after reapportionment – will be in the competitive range, if the GOP nominates the RIGHT candidate.

If all of the key battleground states listed above were to flip to the Republican candidate a total of 135 electoral votes would shift. The GOP candidate would win 305 Electoral votes Vs. 230 for Obama (provided Obama wins all of the states he won in 2008). 270 votes are needed to win.

Now, the GOP needs to get to work and determine which Presidential candidate matches up best against President Obama in these 10 states. The math is clear.

The game is afoot……