Archive for February, 2011
So says the latest Hill Poll.
Twenty-nine percent of likely voters would blame Democrats for a government shutdown, compared to 23 percent who would hold Republicans responsible, according to a new poll conducted for The Hill.
The results are surprising because most people blamed the GOP for the last government shutdown, which occurred during President Clinton’s first term. A week before the 1995 shuttering, polls showed the public blamed Republicans by a two-to-one-margin.
This is surprising to me but may speak to the difference as to how President Obama is perceived versus Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton always came off as a good ol’ boy POL who wold compromise if there was an advantage to him. Hence, the shutdown in 1995 was spun as a radical move by the GOP and Newt Gingrich.
Republicans have a substantial edge among independents: Thirty-four percent would blame Democrats, while only 19 percent would blame the GOP.
However, there are dangers for both parties, the poll indicates. A plurality of voters, 43 percent, would blame both Republicans and Democrats if the lights go out at midnight on March 5. Forty-five percent of respondents said neither party would benefit politically from a shutdown.
This compares to 14 percent who think Democrats would benefit and 18 percent who said Republicans would.
It is in both parties interest to NOT shut down the government.
I think the biggest winner though may very well be President Obama who would take the high road and slam the GOP. So, since Obama is not enjoying good poll ratings, the Republicans may wish to deny him a bump up with a stagnant or declining economy. They can always blame him and the Democrats without the turmoil of a government shutdown.
Tags: Democrats, GOP, Polling
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These are my links for February 27th through February 28th:
Tags: #catcot, #tcot
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According to a new Des Moines Register Poll.
Sarah Palin’s popularity has declined among the very voters the former Alaska governor would need to impress first were she to seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president, The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll shows.
Palin’s favorability has ebbed with Iowa Republican likely voters, whose most active members make up the state’s presidential caucus electorate, in the past 15 months, according to the poll taken this month.
While a solid majority of this group still views Palin positively, the intensity has waned as Palin has become a regular national media presence but done little to cultivate a support base in Iowa.
The shift is not dramatic, but it raises questions about whether Palin would have staying power in Iowa as she moves closer to a decision on a White House run, pollsters say.
“One might ask the question: Is she wearing well? And the numbers are not moving in a favorable direction on that,” Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer said.
The poll does not mean much since Iowa will NOT mean much in the 2012 GOP Presidential season. New Hampshire immediately follows the Iowa Caucuses and Mitt Romney will be a lock to win that primary election. The real race for the GOP nomination will be in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida – then on to the Super Tuesday states.
Plus, Sarah Palin will make her decision as to whether to run based on President Obama vulnerability in the polls and the state of the economy.
On the other hand, states have NOT locked into a set GOP primary schedule and there may be a few wrinkles with scheduling elections thrown into the mix – for example, if Florida were to move up its primary election to January 2012.
Stay tuned….
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I am not surprised especially with regard to Nevada and California being poor job markets, according to the latest Gallup Poll.
More than half of the 10 best job markets in 2010 were in energy- and commodity-producing states. Most of the 10 states with the worst job markets consisted of finance states of the Northeast and the housing-depressed states of the West.
Having a significant presence of natural resource-based industries was a distinct job-creation advantage for states such as North Dakota, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas. These were among the top 10 job markets in 2010, as they were in 2008 and 2009. Also among the top 10 in 2010 were Alaska — another energy state — and Washington, D.C., and Maryland, both of which benefit from having a large percentage of federal government workers. Mostly farm commodity states — including Arkansas, South Dakota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania — fill out the top 10.
What about improvement between 2009 and 2010?
States showing the most improvement in job market conditions between 2009 and 2010 included the long-depressed manufacturing states of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — likely reflecting the significant improvement in U.S. manufacturing last year. Also among the most improved were 5 of the 10 states with the worst job markets in 2009, giving them the most room to improve: Oregon, Delaware, Arizona, Minnesota, along with Michigan. Reflecting the growth of the federal government, the District of Columbia was not only the second-best job market but also the second-most improved job market in 2010.
Eight of the states showing the least improvement last year were in the 10 best job markets in 2009, including New Mexico, Nebraska, West Virginia, Louisiana, Maryland, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia. Also among those showing the least improvement are several states in the Northeast — New Jersey, Vermont, and New York — and two smaller states in the West, Montana and Wyoming.
So, what does this mean politically?
It is noted that only two key battleground state in the Electoral College are listed – Nevada and Virginia. The other states are either very blue or very red which means these states in the extreme job markets will be ignored during the race for 2012.
Nevada’s unemployment rate, plus President Obama’s comments about Las Vegas may play well there for the GOP nominee but demographic changes (more Hispanic and union, Clark County voters) if they show up and vote may be too much to overcome.
Virginia is a state where the GOP will need to perform well if they wish to beat President Obama.
The GOP nominee will concentrate their campaign in other states which have poor unemployment numbers.
Gallup’s job creation index and job market conditions portend more of the same for 2011.
Gallup’s Job Creation Index averaged +7 nationwide during 2010, with 28% of employees reporting their companies were hiring and 21% saying their companies were letting people go. Regionally, job market creation was best in the Midwest and South but lagged behind in the East and West.
Looking ahead, it seems likely that the overall pattern of state job market conditions across the nation in 2011 will remain similar to those of the past three years. Energy prices are surging and gas is now $3.29 a gallon nationwide, compared with $2.69 a year ago. High oil prices tend to improve hiring activity in energy-producing states. Similarly, high commodity prices should help job conditions in the farm and mining states.
On the other hand, the housing market continues to suffer. This suggests that states with the worst housing conditions will continue to see relatively difficult job market conditions for some time.
Of course, it is possible that state and federal budget cutbacks could hurt job market conditions in some states more than others, particularly those having the worst budget problems, such as California, New York, and Illinois. Or, federal budget cuts could hurt states with a large number of federal government employees. Alternatively, U.S. manufacturing and exports could continue to increase, providing more jobs in industrial states.
All in all, not a good poll about jobs for the incumbent President and Democratic U.S. Senate incumbents going into election 2012.
Tags: Polling, Unemployment
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Posted by Flap in Twitter
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These are my links for February 27th from 16:28 to 17:01:
Tags: #catcot, #tcot
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These are my links for February 27th from 16:09 to 16:16:
- The story behind the "Roger Ailes indictment" story – On Sunday morning, the economics analyst and TV commentator Barry Ritholtz dropped a bombshell on his blog: Roger Ailes, the powerful president of Fox News, will be indicted in connection with allegedly telling a News Corp. executive to lie to federal investigators, according to Ritholtz's blog post.
The story, which was based on what an unnamed source told Ritholtz, quickly boomeranged around the Web and Twitter. Several well-read web sites, including Business Insider and Political Wire, picked up the report.
As it turns out, Ritholtz's source for the post was a man he happened to meet and strike up a conversation with at a Barbados airport over the weekend, he told me in an interview this afternoon.
Here's what happened, according to Ritholtz, who just got back from a vacation on the tropical island: He was sitting in the Barbados airport waiting for a plane to arrive and he struck up a conversation with an older man sitting next to him.
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Read it all.
Which means this is a story about maybe something…..
- Protesters defy deadline to leave Wisconsin Capitol as of 6:49 PM EST – About 200 pro-union protesters left the Wisconsin Capitol on Sunday, but police stood by as many hundreds of others remained in defiance of a deadline state officials set for clearing the building after an almost two-week-long sit-in.
The state agency that oversees the Capitol asked the throngs of demonstrators who have been camping out at the Capitol since Feb. 15 to leave by 4 p.m. Sunday or risk arrest, saying the building was in dire need of a cleaning. But in the hours before the deadline came and went, it was clear most protesters did not intend to leave voluntarily.
One medic instructed the crowd how to prepare for the worst, telling demonstrators to clench their firsts so handcuffs or restraints would not cut off the blood flow and to remove contact lenses in case police sprayed anything that could harm their eyes.
Police standing nearby said none of that would be necessary, and Capitol Police Chief Charles Tubbs said no one had been arrested as of about 5 p.m.
He said officers would continue trying to get protesters to vacate voluntarily, but he deflected questions about whether police would arrest demonstrators who refused to leave.
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Will there by arrests if they don't leave?
Tags: Roger_Ailes, Scott Walker, Wisconsin
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