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    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-03-09

    March 9, 2011 /

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  • David Wu,  Polling

    Oregon CD-01 Poll Watch: Rob Cornilles (R) 41% Vs. Rep David Wu (D) 33%

    March 9, 2011 /

    Democrat Oregon Congressman David Wu

    According to the latest Survey USA poll.

    Republicans in in Oregon’s 1st Congressional District by 4:1 say Democratic U.S. Congressman David Wu should resign, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-2 News in Portland. Democrats by 2:1 say Wu should remain in office. Independents split. When the 3 groups are combined, the overall consensus in the District is: 46% resign, 42% stay in office.

    By 3:2, voters in the district say the public has a right to know about Wu’s mental Health (Republicans 4:1 in favor of disclosure, Independents 3:2 in favor of disclosure). Democrats by 4:3 say Wu has a right to privacy.

    A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Independents say Wu has not been forthcoming enough about his mental health. A majority of Democrats say Wu has disclosed “just the right amount” about his illness.

    The district is divided on whether additional disclosure by Wu would help or make no difference to others who may be similarly afflicted.

    In a do-over today of the November 2010 general election in which Wu defeated Republican Rob Cornilles by 13 points, Cornilles today edges Wu 4:3.

    Survey of 605 registered voters from Oregon 1st congressional district was conducted 03/04/11 through 03/06/11 using a mixed-mode methodology.

    With the local Oregon press calling for Wu’s resignation, I don’t think he will survive into another term.

    But, will he resign willingly?

  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Weekly Approval Dips to 46% – Lowest Since Mid-December

    March 9, 2011 /


    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    President Barack Obama averaged 46% job approval the week of Feb. 28-March 6, his lowest weekly average since mid-December. Obama’s weekly approval rating had steadily improved from mid-December to late January, peaking at 50% during the final two weeks in January, before dropping below that mark in February.

    Well, the bloom has gone off the triangulating, move to the center, winning the future, and bipartisanship rose. When the President move with the GOP to pass the Bush-era tax cuts and the payroll tax holiday, American voters liked that.

    But, with gasoline prices soaring and unemployment high, Americans are asking: what have you done for us lately?

    Obama is now essentially back to where he was in the immediate post-election phase of 2010. The decline could be due to a number of issues the administration is dealing with, including the popular uprisings in the Middle East, the resulting higher gas prices, and disagreements with the Republicans in Congress about the best way to rein in federal spending.

    The seven-week period from mid-December through the end of January was the longest stretch Obama has had of stable or improving ratings. Prior to that, there were several periods when his ratings either held steady or improved four weeks in a row, including a stretch from April to May 2009 that saw his approval ratings improve by a total of five percentage points.

    Compared with the final two weeks of January, when Obama averaged 50% overall approval, his recent drop in support has come mainly from Democrats and independents. Last week, an average of 79% of Democrats approved of Obama, down from 84% in late January. The president’s 43% approval rating among independents is down from 47% in late January, while his approval rating among Republicans is essentially the same (15% in late January and 14% now).

  • American Economy,  Polling

    Poll Watch: Message to the States – Cut Programs, Don’t Tax and Borrow

    March 9, 2011 /

    There is little doubt in that message in the latest Gallup poll.

    Of seven possible ways to balance their own state’s budget, Americans are most likely to favor cutting back on state programs (65%) and reducing the number of state workers (62%). Floating more bonds (30%) and raising state income or sales taxes (33%) garner the least support, followed by raising business taxes (39%).

    With regards to Wisconsin’s Governor Scott Walker’s attempt to forgo layoffs of state workers, a bit of a surprise.

    In the nation’s most high-profile budget battle, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has portrayed state worker layoffs as the more draconian option he is trying to avoid by proposing cuts to state employees’ pay, benefits, and collective bargaining. Nevertheless, more Americans favor layoffs than favor pay and benefit cuts, perhaps because the Gallup question doesn’t specify the magnitude of each. While 62% of Americans favor layoffs, fewer than half, 43%, favor cutting state workers’ pay and benefits and 54% are opposed.

    Additionally, the March 3-6 poll finds Americans closely divided on the primary issue in the Wisconsin budget battle — whether to “[change] state laws to limit the bargaining power of state employee unions.” About half of Americans polled, 49%, say they would favor this in their own state; 45% are opposed.

    A late February Gallup poll found 33% of Americans in favor of and 61% opposed to changes to collective bargaining laws when the issue was described as passing a law “that would take away some of the collective bargaining rights of most public unions, including the state teachers’ union.” Although the timing of the surveys could be a factor, the differing results likely reflect Americans’ sensitivity to nuances in how the debate can be framed. They may also indicate the high and low boundaries of support for setting new limits on collective bargaining.

    But, whatever, the message is clear to America’s states – don’t tax me BRO.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 8th on 21:01

    March 9, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 8th from 21:01 to 21:25: