• Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Is Sarah Palin Becoming Al Sharpton, Alaska Edition?

    Sarah Palin on “bully” Kathy Griffin

    Probably not, but Sarah has been playing the victim card way too much. And, where is the beef of her populism? Where are the ideas?

    This year, the conservative intelligentsia doesn’t just tend to dislike Palin — many fear that her rise would represent the triumph of an intellectually empty brand of populism and the death of ideas as an engine of the right.

    “This is a problem for the movement,” said Will about what Palin represents. “For conservatism, because it is a creedal movement, this is a disease to which it is susceptible.”

    The line of modern conservatism that can be traced back to National Review founder William F. Buckley would be broken by Palin, Will said.

    “There’s no Reagan without Goldwater, no Goldwater without National Review and no National Review without Buckley — and the contrast between he and Ms. Palin is obvious.”

    Asked if the GOP would remain the party of ideas if Palin captures the nomination, Will said: “The answer is emphatically no.”

    I like Sarah Palin. She is a nice person, has a great family and a compelling story but she has NOT matured as a Presidential candidate or as a POL. Sarah has taken the fast track whereas a slower, methodical track based on ideas and experience is better for a Presidential contender.

    Her polling against other GOP Presidential candidates has been extremely poor and downright atrocious against President Obama.

    Sarah is not ready to run for the Presidency in 2012 and if she does will be soundly beaten.

  • ANWR,  Energy,  Oil,  Polling

    Poll Watch: Six in Ten Americans Favor Increasing U.S. Oil Drilling



    This is not really surprising with the turmoil in the Middle East and America’s dependency on foreign oil. Why not “Drill, Baby, Drill” if it can be done in an envirnomentally sensitive way?

    Last year’s finding was recorded about a month after the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig off the U.S. Gulf Coast that resulted in a massive oil spill. News of that incident has faded, possibly lessening Americans’ resistance to coastal area drilling. At the same time, recent turbulence in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise and has sparked discussion about the stability of the United States’ foreign oil supply.

    The latest findings are from Gallup’s annual Environment survey, conducted March 3-6. The same poll shows 49% of Americans in favor of opening Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for oil exploration. This is up slightly from 43% in the previous measurement in 2008, and is the highest level of support Gallup has recorded for drilling in ANWR since the question was first asked in 2002.

    Extracting energy for millions of Americans is not an easy undertaking. Americans like their cars and their other conveniences/toys powered by electricity. But, we understand being dependent upon countries that don’t like us so much, is not good for our national security.

    In keeping with this understanding, Americans are more concerned about the availability and affordability of energy.

    So, what does this mean, particularly since nuclear energy generation of electricity with the Japanese earthquake, Tsunami catastrophe will probably face intensive regulatory scrutiny?

    A solid majority of Americans currently favor increased offshore oil drilling in U.S. coastal areas and a record-high 49% favor opening the Alaskan wilderness to oil exploration. These trends might best be understood in terms of Americans’ ongoing anxiety about the nation’s economic problems coupled with their expectation that today’s already elevated gas prices will continue to rise. While Americans care about environmental protection — 61% in 2010 called themselves active in or sympathetic to the environmental movement — the possible benefits of achieving greater oil independence may be gaining appeal.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 14th on 11:15

    These are my links for March 14th from 11:15 to 11:45:

    • President 2012: South Carolina GOP primary filled with uncertainty – By this point every four years, South Carolina expects to see a flood of White House hopefuls crossing the state, from its low country swamps to its upstate farms to its coastal communities.
      This time, there's been a mere trickle.
      Republicans weighing presidential bids have all but ignored the state that in modern history has played an outsized role in GOP nomination fights: Since 1980, the South Carolina primary winner has emerged with the conservative seal of approval and eventually clinched the party's presidential nomination.

      Blame uncertainty.

      ========

      Nothing is certain until Sarah Palin decides to run or not. If she does not then DeMint will have to decide whether he will back romney again or not.

    • Why Republicans should run in 2012 — to lose – The Ides of March are almost upon us, but few potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates seem to have their eyes fixed squarely on the White House. As Salon's Steve Kornacki argued recently, the most obvious reason for the largely vacant GOP field — sorry, Herman Cain — is that the prospects of a Republican beating a once-again formidable Barack Obama seem rather bleak. The 2012 Republican nomination may be a prize not worth winning.

      Because the nomination isn't worth winning, however, doesn't mean it is ill-advised for Republican hopefuls to run in 2012. In fact, if three historical patterns tell us anything, the smart play for any Republican who hopes someday to sit behind the desk in the Oval Office is to run in 2012 — but to lose the nomination.

      =======

      Correct but win the U.S. Senate majority = correct GOP strategy

    • Big GOP donors taking time to get into 2012 race – The potential White House candidates need cash.
      But donors aren't eager to shell out until the hopeful prove they're credible.
      Which they can't — until they have the cash lined up to start their campaigns.
      This helps explain why the 2012 Republican primary race has yet to begin in earnest.
      "It's a little sluggish. The major donor folks are sitting back a bit," said Rob Bickhart, a former Republican National Committee finance chairman helping ex-Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
      "The major donor folks, I think, are a little slower getting started because the whole process was slower to get started," said Bickhart, who helped raise money for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney four years ago. "The last one started, it seemed, after World War I and folks were just exhausted."

      ======

      Read it all

    • Mitch Daniels: Candidate or influencer? – Add it all up and it seems as though Daniels wants to wake up the party — and the 2012 candidates specifically — to the dangers posed by placating social conservatives in the primary fight at the expense, literally, of the economy.

      It’s possible, of course, that Daniels is simply priming the rhetorical pump to cast himself as the truth-teller in a field of candidates who will tell primary voters what they want to hear. But, if that’s his game, it’s a dangerous one, as GOP primary history is littered with men and women who thought they break down the foundational pillars of the nomination process.

      Maybe Daniels — a high-level political and policy thinker — can change all that if he runs. But, as of today, it doesn’t sound like he wants to.

      =======

      I think he would make a decent candidate but I do not see the "fire in the belly."

      And, it is kind of a shame.

  • Scott Brown

    MA-Sen Poll Watch: Sen. Scott Brown Safe for Now

    U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., poses with Dawn Rogers and her sleeping son Zander, 15 months, after Brown signed a copy of his new book, ‘Against All Odds,’ at a bookstore in Boston, Tuesday afternoon Feb. 22, 2011

    In fact, more than half of registered voters say he deserves re-election.

    Republican Scott Brown is in a strong position as he prepares to seek a full six-year term in the United States Senate in 2012, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.

    The telephone survey of 472 registered voters, conducted March 6-10, found that Brown is the best known among a list of declared and possible candidates for Senate, with a favorability rating of 53 percent and an unfavorability rating of 27 percent.

    Also, 52 percent of registered voters say Brown deserves to be re-elected, while 28 percent say he does not deserve to be re-elected. Brown won a special election in January 2010 to serve the remainder of the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s unexpired term and is expected to seek a full term in 2012.

    The Democrats want to recapture the “Kemnedy” Senate seat but Senator Scott Brown, a Republican has proven to be popular.

    But, will his popularity hold as the election season nears?

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney Most Likely to Win?

    Plot of Conservative Home/Daily Caller Poll

    Yes, according to the latest Conservative Home/Daily Caller Poll.

    Today’s poll marks the first of a new biweekly 2012 presidential tracking poll cosponsored by ConservativeHome and the Daily Caller.

    The tracking poll asks conservative Republicans their views of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. Respondents are part of the ConservativeHome Republican Panel, which has been assembled by YouGov. They are likely primary voters, 70 percent of whom have donated time or money to candidates for public office.

    We presented respondents with a list of potential candidates, and asked six questions. Here are the top five for each question we asked:

    Here are the results:

    Who do you like the most?

       1. 15% – Chris Christie
       2. 14% – Sarah Palin
       3. 12% – Newt Gingrich
       4. 10% – Mitt Romney
       5.   9% – Michele Bachmann

    Who is most likely to win in 2012?

       1. 27% – Mitt Romney
       2. 15% – Chris Christie
       3. 12% – Newt Gingrich
       4. 10% – Mike Huckabee
       5.   6% – Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty (tie)

    Who is the most conservative?

       1. 19% – Michele Bachmann
       2. 16% – Sarah Palin
       3. 14% – Ron Paul
       4. 11% – Newt Gingrich
       5.   7% – Chris Christie

    Who would do the best job on the economy?

       1. 16% – Chris Christie
       2. 15% – Mitt Romney
       3. 14% – Donald Trump
       4. 10% – Newt Gingrich
       5.   7% – Sarah Palin

    Who would do the best job keeping Washington’s spending under control?

       1. 20% – Chris Christie
       2. 11% – Newt Gingrich
       3. 10% – Ron Paul and Sarah Palin (tie)
       4.   9% – Michele Bachmann and Donald Trump (tie)

    Who would do the best job handling the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

       1. 25% – John Bolton
       2. 24% – Newt Gingrich
       3.   7% – Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (tie)
       4.   6% – Mike Huckabee

    For what it is worth:

    Newt Gingrich is the only individual to appear with double digits in each of the 6 categories.

    Chris Christie is the only individual to garner 15% more than twice (he was above 15% in 4 categories). Romney was above 15% twice. Bolton, Gingrich and Palin were each above 15% once.

    This poll is probably not worth much, but here it is. The poll dynamics will change when some candidates who are on the fence about running decide to get off the fence – like Huckabee and Palin.

  • President 2012

    President 2012: GOP Primary Calendar Set as Florida Deadline Passes?

    No, not yet and the jockeying by the early states will continue probably through the spring and perhaps summer.

    The way is clearing for Iowa’s caucuses to remain the first contest of the 2012 Republican presidential campaign, although the date they will be held remains uncertain.

    Key Republicans in Florida, a powerful swing state, now say they are willing to move their primary out of the way of the penciled Feb. 6, 2012, date for the Iowa caucuses. But the Florida GOP still seeks an early stamp on the nomination.

    The Republican National Committee has been working with party leaders in most states to realign a nominating calendar left over from the 2008 campaign, when dozens of states pushed forward to grab a share of the early spotlight.

    While national GOP leaders expect the calendar to be settled by October, New Hampshire’s secretary of state, William Gardner, again will have an outsized say about when the 2012 opening bell rings.

    Leaders in Florida recently signaled they are willing to move the primary from Jan. 31, six days ahead of the Feb. 6 date reserved by the RNC last year for the Iowa caucuses.

    “This is not a hostage situation. Our goal is not to go No. 1. We think that is historically Iowa’s,” Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos said last week. “Our goal is to be in a spot where we would have a real say in the primary process, not to move ahead of Iowa or New Hampshire.”

    The deadline for new legislation in Florida passed last week without a bill to reschedule the primary, set ahead of the 2008 campaign for late January. Haridopolos said he was planning to introduce an amendment to existing legislation that would move the date to mid- to late February.

    So, what is the tentative calendar?

    • February 6 – Iowa
    • February 14 – New Hampshire
    • February 18 – Nevada
    • February 28 – South Carolina
    • March 6 – First day for proportionally-awarded delegate contests
    • April 1 – First day for winner-take-all contests

    And, what about Florida? If they decide to move their primary up before March, they will be out of compliance with the RNC rules.

    But, it is doubtful the RNC would sanction them. 

    If and when the Florida GOP decides to move up their primary, Iowa and New Hampshire will make their moves —> earlier.

  • Judd Gregg,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Does the GOP Primary Process Help Sarah Palin?

    Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin looks down during the Pledge of Allegiance before speaking to the LIA (Long Island Association) Annual Meeting & Luncheon at the Crest Hollow Country Club in Woodbury, New York, February 17, 2011

    Yes, according to former New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg.

    Because the nominating process has become so dominated by primary elections, with the vast majority of the delegates chosen by direct vote, it is entirely possible that with no presumptive winner or even favorites, a candidate who runs second or third in a great many primaries could go into the convention with a sizable block of delegates.

    Who would this favor? Does Sarah Palin come to mind? Although she is not viewed by most as strong enough to win, she is viewed by many as a person worth voting for to make a statement. And primaries tend to be populated by people who go to the polls with the purpose of making a statement.

    Finishing second and third isn’t really a big deal — until you get enough delegates to be the nominee. And picking a nominee who it seems would be easily defeated by President Obama might not be the best statement.

    As I have been saying over and over the past few months, the GOP Presidential nomination is really Sarah Palin’s to decline. She has an excellent chance to win Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada – all early contests. She would do very well in Florida. Then on Super Tuesday, she would likely win some and lose some.

    But, would any candidate, meaning Mitt Romney and/or Tim Pawlenty have sufficent numbers of delegates going into the convention to beat her on the first ballot?

    Probably not.

    Now, I am not positive that Sarah will run in 2012. She is simply NOT polling very well against President Obama and a Goldwater type of loss, while Quixotic, would hurt her brand and pocketbook.

    But, Sarah CAN win the nomination.

  • Day By Day,  Japan,  Scott Walker

    Day By Day March 14, 2011 – Turning Japanese



    Day by Day by Chris Muir

    Japan’s earthquake and resulting tsunami is a true disaster. The Wisconsin Democrats and their supporters on the Far Left are just ridiculous.

    Now, the Democrats and unions are promoting recalls of Republican Legislators who voted to support Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s budgetary reform plan. Are we now going to recall every Legislator if they vote a way that the unions don’t support? And, will the Democrats who know they will lose a specific vote, then just leave the state rather than suffer the loss?

    A bad series of precedences are being set in Wisconsin.

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    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-03-14

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