• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 17th on 15:27

    March 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 17th from 15:27 to 16:16:

  • California,  California Republican Party,  Hispanic Vote

    Poll Watch: California Republicans Can Gain Ground with Hispanic Voters If They Become Democrats

    March 17, 2011 /

    You think I am kidding?

    A statewide survey of California Latino voters released today showed that while this important voting demographic has a somewhat negative view of Republicans, there nevertheless exists an opportunity for Republicans to make inroads into the Latino community. The poll, conducted by veteran GOP pollster Bob Moore with strategic counsel from well-regarded GOP strategist Marty Wilson, surveyed 400 California Latino voters from March 12-14 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

    Here are the specific findings:

    • Latino voters are generally negative about the Republican Party (26 percent favorable/47 percent unfavorable/27 percent no opinion) and widely positive about the Democrat Party (62/22/17).
    • The GOP is not going to win many Latino voters by stressing conservatism; only 22 percent suggest that Republicans should, “stick to core values and nominate true Conservatives.”
    • Philosophically, a third are self-described “Conservatives,” a third are Moderate and a quarter are Liberal.
    • The Arizona immigration law is widely unpopular; only 25 percent approve, while 71 percent disapprove of the law.
    • On the positive side for Republicans, more than seven-in-10 voters will consider a candidate who says, “secure the border first, stop illegal immigration, then find a way to address the status of people already here illegally” (73 percent favorable reaction).
    • Further good news for Republicans is that more than six-in-10 Latino voters are likely to consider voting for a GOP candidate who would “ensure all children had a chance at a first rate education” (69 percent would), who they agreed with on improving the economy and creating jobs (65 percent) and with whom they agree on protecting America from terrorists (63 percent).

    Here is the latest California census map which shows the growth of the California Hispanic population.

    The fact is despite my friend Marty Wilson’s happy moment in this poll. California Republicans as are most of America’s GOP are right of center and are not going to change their political philosophy in order to win elections – even in California. California liberalism with pandering to Hispanics, Asians and African-Americans has created a bankrupt state with major structural problems, like education, high taxes and an unfavorable business climate.

    California Republicans will have to pick their battles and win those seats where voters do not vote their racial or national origin, but vote for candidates on the issues.

    Unfortunately, for the California GOP, California has become a very blue Democratic state like New York and Massachusetts. California will remain so for the foreseeable future, regardless of whatever Hispanic outreach/pandering is pursued by the GOP .

    The entire poll is here (PDF).

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 17th on 15:02

    March 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 17th from 15:02 to 15:07:

    • DeMint walks back his Romney support — after the right attacks him – (“Is DeMint going to risk his Tea Party status for ROMNEY??”) Very shortly thereafter, a DeMint aide contacted The Hill to walk back DeMint’s comments, claiming DeMint “never considered backing Romney again unless he admits that his Massachusetts health-care plan was a colossal mistake.” That’s a flip-flop worthy of, well, Mitt Romney.

      The answer to Right Turn’s question is: No, DeMint is not going to throw away his standing with the Tea Party to give Romney cover for a plan that is an anathema to the base. The problem for Romney now is: If DeMint won’t let him get away with defending RomneyCare with spurious arguments, who will?

      ======

      Well, nobody I know.

    • Willie Sutton Never Met a Payroll or How the GOP Can Make Federal Budget Arguments – “Hey, look over there! There are some really expensive programs over there!” Mike Kinsley criticizes one of the most annoying liberal arguments against cutting the fat in government–the Willie Sutton argument, or “Why bother to cut the fat in these agencies and programs when the really big budget busters are entitlements like Medicare and Social Security”:

      It’s also true, but unconvincing, that the whole budget debate is focusing on the smallest part of federal spending — discretionary spending — and ignoring the big bucks, which are in inexorably rising health care costs. Given all past experience, a perfectly adequate reaction to the Obama administration’s claims that health care reform will save the government money is, “I’ll believe it when I see it.” But that is no reason not to show more discipline on smaller matters. Every little bit helps.

      You’d think a good GOP  budget-cutting argument would be: “They’re talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare costs to control the deficit, but it would be wrong to cut even a dollar from someone’s Social Security checks or Medicare to pay for unnecessary bureaucrats in Washington.”

      =======

      Well, argued.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40% – Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%

    March 17, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Obama Job approval:

    • 47% Approve, 46% Disapprove

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable

    • Mitt Romney – 33% Vs. 43% (-10)
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 59% (-28)
    • Mick Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42% (-6)
    • Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56% (-32)

    Head to Head with the President:

    • Obama 50% Vs. Gingrich 38%
    • Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 41%
    • Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
    • Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40%

    In the key battleground state of Ohio, President Obama is either leading his GOP opponent by 6 or 16 points. It is becoming clear in poll after poll that if the GOP wants to field a competitive candidate then they better look beyond these four.

    I would recommend either Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie and they better gear up quickly.

    The entire poll is here (PDF).

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 17th on 12:53

    March 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 17th from 12:53 to 15:00:

    • Sen. Rand Paul Unveils 5-Year Budget Plan: Eliminates Four Federal Agencies – Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., unveiled today his five-year path to a balanced budget, leaving several federal agencies behind. Among the items on the cutting room floor are the Departments of Education, Energy, Commerce and Housing and Urban Development.

      “There’s a lot of things in here that everybody could agree to, Republicans and Democrats, but nobody’s leading on the president’s side and on our side we felt we needed to put this forward to get the debate started, at the very least,” the freshman Senator explained at a Capitol Hill press conference this afternoon.

      The proposal also calls for the repeal of “Obamacare,” but leaves entitlements untouched.

      ======

      Hard to argue with this plan.

    • OH, HILL NO – WWW.THEDAILY.COM – OH, HILL NO – Obama's indecision on Libya has pushed Clinton over the edge
    • OH, HILL NO – Obama’s indecision on Libya has pushed Clinton over the edge – Fed up with a president “who can’t make his mind up” as Libyan rebels are on the brink of defeat, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is looking to the exits.

      At the tail end of her mission to bolster the Libyan opposition, which has suffered days of losses to Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s forces, Clinton announced that she’s done with Obama after 2012 — even if he wins again.

      “Obviously, she’s not happy with dealing with a president who can’t decide if today is Tuesday or Wednesday, who can’t make his mind up,” a Clinton insider told The Daily. “She’s exhausted, tired.”

      He went on, “If you take a look at what’s on her plate as compared with what’s on the plates of previous Secretaries of State — there’s more going on now at this particular moment, and it’s like playing sports with a bunch of amateurs. And she doesn’t have any power. She’s trying to do what she can to keep things from imploding.”

      Clinton is said to be especially peeved with the president’s waffling over how to encourage the kinds of Arab uprisings that have recently toppled regimes in Egypt and Tunisia, and in particular his refusal to back a no-fly zone over Libya.

      In the past week, former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton’s former top adviser Anne-Marie Slaughter lashed out at Obama for the same reason.

      The tension has even spilled over into her dealings with European diplomats, with whom she met early this week.

      When French president Nicolas Sarkozy urged her to press the White House to take more aggressive action in Libya, Clinton repeatedly replied only, “There are difficulties,” according to Foreign Policy magazine.

      “Frankly we are just completely puzzled,” one of the diplomats told Foreign Policy magazine. “We are wondering if this is a priority for the United States.”

      Or as the insider described Obama’s foreign policy shop: “It’s amateur night.”

      =======

      If the GOP can just nominate a decent candidate, they will have Obama for lunch in 2012.

      A big if though.

    • President 2012 Video: Is Mitch Daniels Being Unfairly Attacked from the Right? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Video: Is Mitch Daniels Being Unfairly Attacked from the Right? #tcot #catcot
    • T-Paw v. Hee-Haw | The Weekly Standard – President 2012: T-Paw v. Hee-Haw
    • Glenn Reynolds Interviews Mickey Kaus | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Glenn Reynolds Interviews Mickey Kaus #tcot #catcot
    • President 2012: T-Paw v. Hee-Haw – The skirmish between Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty on defense spending and Afghanistan is more enlightening for what it says about GOP 2012 politics than for what it says about the substance of foreign and defense policy.

      Barbour's comments, at a GOP dinner in Iowa, were … comments—and certainly didn't constitute any kind of serious presentation of a foreign policy agenda. His case for cutting defense spending was more political than substantive—"We can save money on defense and if we Republicans don't propose saving money on defense, we'll have no credibility on anything else,"—and not very smart politics, either. What's more, according to Kasie Hunt's report, "After the speech, Barbour told reporters that he couldn't identify specific programs that should be cut from the Pentagon budget." Barbour's only substantive argument seemed to be this: "Anybody who says you can't save money at the Pentagon has never been to the Pentagon." This is a) childish, b) slightly offensive, and c) raises the question of how much time Barbour has spent at the Pentagon—apart from time spent lobbying for defense contractors or foreign governments.

      =====

      Does anyone really consider Haley Barbour besides Haley Barbour a serious candidate for President?

  • Bloggingheads.tv,  Conn Carroll,  Conor Friedersdorf,  Mitch Daniels

    President 2012 Video: Is Mitch Daniels Being Unfairly Attacked from the Right?

    March 17, 2011 /

    Probably, but listen to the give and take btwween Conor Friedersdorf and Conn Carroll.

    What GOP voters will have to decide (should Daniels decide to run, and I am not all that sure that he will) is whether they want an accomplished conservative POL or an ideologue who has no chance of beating President Obama as their nominee?

  • Jim DeMint,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Will Senator Jim DeMint Endorse Mitt Romney for President?

    March 17, 2011 /

    Well, Senator DeMint (R-South Carolina) did in 2008, but now there are conditions?

    Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) “would never consider” endorsing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president again in 2012 unless Romney repudiates the health reforms he sought as governor, a source close to DeMint said Thursday.

    A source close to the conservative icon emphasized that, despite comments to The Hill indicating that Romney shouldn’t shoulder all the political blame for the Massachusetts healthcare plan, DeMint wouldn’t endorse Romney again unless he admits the plan was mistaken.

    “It’s obvious Jim was just trying to be nice to the guy he backed over McCain, as many conservatives did in 2008,” the source said. “But he would never consider backing Romney again unless he admits that his Massachusetts healthcare plan was a colossal mistake.”

    These quotes from an unnamed source came after the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin spanked DeMint in this piece this morning.

    So has DeMint suddenly decided to make peace with the individual mandate? Perhaps, but that would be a monumental and abrupt shift in his thinking. No, this is pure, opportunistic politics. It’s the sort of thing DeMint normally decries, to the cheers of his base. But Romney backed DeMint and now DeMint is giving Romney cover.

    That’s unsurprising in politics, but it’s a major problem for a pol who has carved his identity on principled opposition to nearly every compromise with the left. For DeMint to give Romney a pass on an individual mandate negotiated with the late Sen. Ted Kennedy is a high-risk proposition for DeMint.

    His backers and the Republican base more generally are not going to buy the excuse DeMint has offered on RomneyCare. Romney is going to be savaged by the right, and from those very people who have given DeMint his base of support. So the question for DeMint is: Is he willing to risk his own conservative street cred to support a candidate who will be the target of his base’s ire?

    And, also spanked by Phil Klein over at the American Spectator.

    But beyond being ignorant, DeMint’s comments are dangerous. I’ve long argued that the Massachusetts health care plan is not only toxic to Mitt Romney’s presidential candidacy, but it could prove toxic to the entire Republican Party. If Romney is excused for crafting and signing the Massachusetts health care plan, it significantly undermines the case against ObamaCare and weakens the effort to repeal it. The reason is that opposition to ObamaCare will start to look increasingly political and less about principle. It’s true that a state mandate doesn’t raise the same Constitutional questions as the federal mandate, but it still is government forcing an individual to purchase a product. These comments are especially dangerous coming from DeMint, who is known as a leading conservative and ObamaCare opponent. Let’s hope it’s an isolated incident and not part of a broader trend.

    Mitt Romney should NOT be the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee in 2012. RomneyCare and his numerous flip-flops over the decades make him untrustworthy and not worthy of my vote.

    Period.

    His nomination will undercut the repeal of ObamaCare which should be one of the GOP’s first priorities. ObamaCare will ruin American health care, bust the budget wide open and imperil America’s survival.

    As far as Jim DeMint is concerned. He is an OPPORTUNISTIC POL not a Tea Party activist.

    Remember how DeMint has promised Indiana Senator Richard Lugar he would not help fund a primary challenge to him in 2012. I mean, Lugar is clearly a RINO, who is old and votes way too left for the modern day GOP. But, DeMint will sit on his hands.

    Remember when DeMint funded Chuck DeVore in California against a conservative Carly Fiorina when DeVore had absolutely NO chance of winning?

    DeMint is a conservative Senator, but he is a POL like all of the rest and when he supports/endorses Romney, it will just be another example.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 17th on 10:53

    March 17, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 17th from 10:53 to 11:36:

    • President 2012 Poll Watch: Sarah Palin trails Charlie Sheen with independents – We've found a lot of brutal poll numbers for Sarah Palin so far in 2011: down in South Dakota, down in South Carolina, down in Arizona, only up by 1 point in Texas, only up by 1 point in Nebraska to name a few. But this has to be the worst- independent voters say they would support Charlie Sheen over Palin for President by a 41/36 margin. Seriously.

      Despite her deficit with independents Palin does lead Sheen 49-29 overall. We also tested Barack Obama against Sheen and the President leads 57-24.

      Sheen is one of the most unpopular figures we've ever polled on. 10% of Americans rate him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion of him. The only people we've ever found worse numbers for are Rod Blagojevich in Illinois (an 8/83 favorability spread), Jesse Jackson Jr. in Illinois (a 10/73 favorability), and Levi Johnston in Alaska (a 6/72 favorability). Sheen's -57 spread ties what we found for John Edwards in North Carolina the last time we polled him (15/72).

      Sheen's unpopularity is pretty universal across party lines so it says something about the level of polarization in the country right now that Democrats would support him by a 44-24 margin for President over Palin and that Republicans would support him 37-28 over Obama. People may not have any respect for Sheen but they still think he'd be a better alternative than their opposing party's leading figure.

      ======

      Kind of funny really.

      But, it points out how unpopular and polarizing Sarah Palin is.

      Sarah Palin nor Charlie sheen will be running for President and that is probably a good thing.

    • Rep. David Wu crashed car in Northwest Portland last year, says he fell asleep – U.S. Rep. David Wu crashed his vehicle into a parked car in Northwest Portland last year, but passed a police field sobriety test and the incident never showed up in a police report.

      No one was injured after the Feb. 19, 2010 incident. The congressman's spokesman, Erik Dorey, said Wu fell asleep while driving.

      Still, the woman who called 9-1-1 to report the incident said she assumed there was "some kind of disability if he was driving on the wrong side of the street." She also said that Wu did not want her to call police.

      "He says he fell asleep," says Karen Fog, in the recording. "I don't believe him."

      The incident, first reported Wednesday in Willamette Week, is the latest in a string of revelations about the congressman's life last year. Wu has apologized for what he calls a rough October, saying he was under extreme professional and personal stress but had received appropriate medication and counseling. In 2008, he was hospitalized for observation after a bad reaction to Ambien and Valium.

      =======

      More embarassing revelations for Rep. Wu.

      Will the Democratic Party ever lean on him to resign or will they have to primary him?

      Obviously, the man is disturbed and has multiple problems.

  • Larry Sobato,  President 2012

    President 2012: The Phantom Campaign or Shadow-Boxing for the Presidency

    March 17, 2011 /

    Political pundit and Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Larry Sobato, updates his January Crystal Ball for the GOP Presidential race for 2012.

    Read it all.

    Sobato actually paints a fairly dire picture for the Republican Party in attempting to defeat President Obama next year. So, who will the GOP choose?

    Unless the nominee is Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie, it will probably NOT matter.