• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 3rd on 20:03

    These are my links for May 3rd from 20:03 to 20:10:

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 3rd on 19:45

    These are my links for May 3rd from 19:45 to 19:49:

    • Osama Bin Laden dead: Obama took 16 hours to make up his mind – Barack Obama kept military commanders hanging by declaring he would 'sleep on it' before taking 16 hours to give the go-ahead to raid Bin Laden's compound.

      Hit squads of specialist Navy Seals – who were not even told who they were preparing to capture – had practised the mission at two reconstructions of the terror chiefs sprawling compound.

      The mission looked set to be given the all clear last Thursday when analysts confirmed beyond doubt that Bin Laden was in busy town of Abbottabad in northern Pakistan.

      =======

      16 hours?

    • US may have got Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad clue in 2008 – WikiLeaks – The US may have obtained a clue three years ago that Osama bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, according to information gathered by interrogators at Guantánamo.

      Buried in a document from 2008 released by WikiLeaks last week are notes from the interrogation of a Libyan, Abu al-Libi, who had apparently been with Bin Laden in Afghanistan.

      According to the document, Libi fled to Peshawar in Pakistan and was living there in 2003 when he was asked to become one of Bin Laden's messengers. The document says: "In July 2003, detainee received a letter from [Bin Laden's] designated courier, Maulawi Abd al-Khaliq Jan, requesting detainee take on the responsibility of collecting donations, organising travel and distributing funds for families in Pakistan. [Bin Laden] stated detainee would be the official messenger between [Bin Laden] and others in Pakistan. In mid-2003, detainee moved his family to Abbottabad (Pakistan) and worked between Abbottabad and Peshawar."

      Libi was captured in Pakistan in 2005. The CIA says it tracked Bin Laden by tracing the network of couriers, in particular one especially trusted by the al-Qaida leader and who died with himin the US raid on Sunday. The US has not yet named the courier.

      Senior members of the Bush administration claim evidence gained in Guantánamo has provided important information, in this case supposedly leading to Bin Laden.

      WikiLeaks released the report last week, prompting speculation that the US, afraid that its planned raid might be pre-empted, brought forward its attack.

      =====

      If true, then why did the Obama Administration wait so long?

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 3rd on 14:02

    These are my links for May 3rd from 14:02 to 18:15:

    • Dick Lugar: Obama ‘lacks vision’ on Afghanistan – The top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said Tuesday that President Barack Obama “lacks vision of success” in Afghanistan, fewer than 48 hours after Obama announced that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden.

      Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.), who has been outspoken against American engagement in Libya, said the war in Afghanistan does not have a “strategic value,” after almost a decade in the region and with “al Qaeda largely displaced” from the country it once was concentrated in.

      =======

      That Obama does…..

    • President 2012: Mike Huckabee to Hold Washington Fund-raiser – Mike Huckabee isn’t making much noise these days about another presidential bid, but he’ll be in Washington Wednesday to raise money for his political action committee, Huck PAC, and to talk–very privately–about his 2012 intentions.

      The Capitol Hill fund-raiser will afford fans who can write a $1,000 check the chance to grill the former Arkansas governor about his drive to wage another campaign. In a voicemail message left this week with one potential donor, an organizer billed the event as “a small group discussing his potential run for president.”

      The event is being hosted by Rex Elsass, a Republican strategist who owns a political advertising company called the Strategy Group for Media.

      ======

      But, Huck cannot use the money for any Presidential run. So, the motivation remains unclear.

      Is he toying with the donors? Or is this a pre-emptive strike for the Presidency?

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 11% Palin 9%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    This is the third poll in less than a month that has been especially favorable for Mitt Romney. Here is the other poll.

    With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?

    Perhaps.

    And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?

    A good day for Mitt Romney.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 3rd on 12:40

    These are my links for May 3rd from 12:40 to 13:49:

    • In-Sen: Richard Lugar Calls For Afghanistan Endgame – At a time when many Republicans are praising President Obama following the U.S. operation that killed Osama bin Laden, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) is doubling down on his effort to press the president on an endgame for the war in Afghanistan.

      "Clearly it would not be in our national security interest to have the Taliban take over the government or have Afghanistan reestablished as a terrorist safe haven," Lugar said in a Tuesday statement. "But the President has not offered a vision of what success in Afghanistan would entail or how progress toward success would be measured."

      On Monday, Lugar welcomed the news that bin Laden had been killed but said his death should also serve as a reminder. "The reported death of Osama bin Laden is welcome news, but it in no way eliminates the threat from the terrorism he espoused," he said. "This is another reminder that Americans cannot hide from global affairs."

      Lugar's questioning of the strategy in Afghanistan isn't new, but it shows that his team expects the news of bin Laden's death to bring more attention to the debate over the mission in Afghanistan.

      "If anything, the attack on bin Laden proves that maybe we are more successful and should be putting our money and resources in those kinds of operations wherever al Qaida is, which is in Yemen and in Africa and not necessarily in Afghanistan," said Lugar adviser Mark Helmke.

      =======

      The rationale for continued troop presence in Afghanistan may very well have disappeared with Bin Laden's death.

      Lugar is trying to bolster favor with voters in Indiana, while he best do that with domestic matters and then retire.

    • President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44% #tcot #catcot
    • Another Version of the Osama Bin Laden Courier Story | The Weekly Standard – Another Version of the Osama Bin Laden Courier Story
    • Another Version of the Osama Bin Laden Courier Story – Yet another version of how U.S. intelligence officials identified Osama bin Laden’s courier has been published. Again, we need confirmation from intelligence officials to determine which details are true. It is not at all clear at this point how this went down.

      The Associated Press reports that “detainees in the CIA’s secret prison network told interrogators about an important courier with the nom de guerre Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti who was close to bin Laden.” Khalid Sheikh Mohammed later “confirmed knowing al-Kuwaiti but denied he had anything to do with al-Qaida.” 

      A new tip came in 2004, when “top al-Qaida operative Hassan Ghul was captured in Iraq.” According to the AP’s account:   

      Ghul told the CIA that al-Kuwaiti was a courier, someone crucial to the terrorist organization. In particular, Ghul said, the courier was close to Faraj al-Libi, who replaced Mohammed as al-Qaida's operational commander. It was a key break in the hunt for in bin Laden's personal courier.

      Then, after al-Libi was captured in May 2005:

      Under CIA interrogation, al-Libi admitted that when he was promoted to succeed Mohammed, he received the word through a courier. But he made up a name for the courier and denied knowing al-Kuwaiti, a denial that was so adamant and unbelievable that the CIA took it as confirmation that he and Mohammed were protecting the courier. It only reinforced the idea that al-Kuwaiti was very important to al-Qaida.

      ======

      Read it all

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 50%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 59%
    • Mike Huckabee – 35% Vs. 48%
    • Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
    • Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 37%
    • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 66%

    Interesting that Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate in positive favorable territory.

    General election Head to Head:

    • Barack Obama – 47% Vs. Newt Gingrich – 40%
    • Barack Obama – 46% Vs. Mike Huckabee – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 49% Vs. Sarah Palin – 38%
    • Mitt Romney – 48% Vs. Barack Obama – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 48% Vs. Donald Trump – 36%

    Again, only Mitt Romney leads President Obama. This is the third state in the last month, including Nevada and Pennsylvania that Romney is the ONLY Republican beating Obama.

    There has been speculation that Sarah Palin may move from Alaska to Arizona. But, she would not receive a warm welcome as only 27% say they would like her to move to Arizona, whereas 57% hope she stays away. 16% don’t offer an opinion.

    Again, it seems Arizona voters are unhappy with the GOP Field. Will the addition of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels make a difference? Or is Mitt Romney good enough?

    The entire poll is here.

  • George W. Bush,  Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012 Video: Mitch Daniels Running With Haley Barbour Would Have Been Fun

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels on Fox News this morning

    So, does this mean, Governor that you are a candidate for the Presidency?

    “We’re old pals, and we cut cards, and I drew a two.

    No, actually, I was very interested in what Governor Barbour was thinking, but it would’ve been fun to be in it together.

    I tell you what — you all would have had a little more fun, a few more laughs if we were both in there.

    And it would’ve been very clean and upbeat, which I hope it will be, anyway.”

    But, why say, “I hope it will be anyway?”

    And, why talk about 2012 with your former boss, President George W. Bush?

    Republican Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels revealed Tuesday he has consulted with his former boss, former President George W. Bush, about a potential run for the White House in 2012.

    Although he wouldn’t divulge details of the discussion, Daniels, who served as Bush’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, said he is aware he owes people an answer about a bid. Daniels has said he would make up his mind at the conclusion of the legislative session in Indiana, which ended Friday.

    When asked if he would like to run, Daniels responded “Would I like to? No. What sane person would like to?”

    “Believe it or not, I’m not one of those people who’s ever sat around scheming and dreaming,” Daniels said on “Fox and Friends.” “Never entered my mind, but I’ve agreed at the behest of a lot of people to give it some thought.”

    The thought is that Mitch Daniels will very likely run – especially since he has been discussing the race with Bush donors for some months now.

  • Claire McCaskill,  Ed Martin,  Sarah Steelman,  Todd Akin,  U.S. Senate 2012

    Mo-Sen Poll Watch: Claire McCaskill 46% Vs. Todd Akin 45%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Senator Claire McCaskill – 46% Vs. 47%

    Approval Vs. Disapproval Vs. Not sure:

    • Todd Akin – 18% Vs. 21% Vs. 61%
    • John Brunner – 8% Vs. 19% Vs. 73%
    • Blaine Luetkemeye – 14% Vs. 22% Vs. 64%
    • Ed Martin – 11% Vs. 20% Vs. 70%
    • Sarah Steelman – 26% Vs. 22% Vs. 52%

    General election Head to Head:

    • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Akin – 45%
    • McCaskill – 47% Vs. Brunner – 41%
    • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Luetkemeye – 42%
    • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Martin – 39%
    • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Steelman – 42%

    Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012 and the GOP is counting on picking up her seat. The latest PPP Poll does nothing to give her campaign any optimism.

    These margins don’t exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they’re likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups- 5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming ‘home’ you’re looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.

    Why are there so many more Republican undecideds? The crop of GOP candidates continues to be mostly unknown to voters in the state. None of them reaches 50% name recognition. Steelman is the best known with 48% of voters having an opinion about her, 26% positive and 22% negative. She’s followed by 39% who know Akin (18/21), 36% who know Luetkemeyer (14/22), 31% who know Martin (11/20), and 27% who know Brunner (8/19).

    The state of this race remains the same- McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next year. But the bad news cycles she endured over the last few months seemed like they had the potential to shift this race to one where she was favored to lose. In that sense the continued toss up status of the contest is good news for her.

    Good news for McCaskill?

    I suppopse she could be behind but with her airplane woes and the lack of GOP hit ads means that worst is yet to come.

    This race will NOT be a toss-up but a GOP gain.