Poll Watch: Americans Continue Anti-Incumbent Mood Against Congress

Twenty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, tying the low point in the trend set last year, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.

In early May, Gallup found 24% of Americans approving of the job Congress is doing overall, which reflected a rally in support after the death of Osama bin Laden. Congress’ approval rating had been below 20% in March and April. Nevertheless, voters’ views of Congress in 2011 — in terms of both approval and support for most members’ re-election — are no better than they were last year, despite the great turnover in the 2010 elections that led to Republicans’ taking control of the House of Representatives.

Since 1992, Gallup has typically found more voters saying most members of Congress do not deserve re-election than saying they do. Generally, when higher percentages of voters express these anti-incumbent sentiments, as in 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010, there is much change in Congress’ membership at the next election.

Why, am I not surprised?

The American economy continues in the dire straights and people will blame their elected representatives in Congress and the President

What is interesting is voter’s thoughts about their own Members of Congress.

Voters are more charitable toward their own Representative with 57% saying that he or she deserves re-election – only 34% say they do not.

So, what does this all mean?

The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election.

All incumbent members of the House will be running in newly drawn districts in 2012, further adding to the uncertainty about their future. But significant turnover in Congress may be the “new normal” pattern, given that it has occurred in each of the last three congressional elections.

I would say if I were a new Republican Congressman, I would run hard in their district and not take anything for granted. Voters remain unhappy and will vote you out, if they perceive you are representing yourself and not your constituents.