President 2012: The 2012 GOP Presidential Field is Set?
Republican Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announces he is running for President in Des Moines, Iowa, May 23, 2011
High-level Republican leaders tell POLITICO that they now believe the top tier of the presidential field is set, and that no major donors or operatives will remain on the sidelines hoping a dream candidate will make a last-minute entry.
These leaders calculate that they are better off to accept the Mitch Daniels-less field as it is and not continue to waffle, letting President Barack Obama continue to build strength while the GOP dawdles.
“The waiting is over,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman and counselor to President George W. Bush. “Things are going to accelerate pretty quickly now.”
“You’re seeing everything you’re going to get,” said a Republican who has talked privately with the leading candidates.
The energy in the party, of course, is currently in the tea-party and social conservative wings—there’s support in those quarters for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), who is increasingly looking like a candidate, and Sarah Palin, whose plans are a mystery.
And a group of Iowa GOP donors is scheduled to travel to New Jersey at the end of the month to encourage Gov. Chris Christie to run.
But the GOP establishment is now convinced that Mitt Romney is the front-runner, and that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman have a narrow window to determine who will become the stronger alternative – the anti-Mitt in the GOP field.
It will be Mitt Romney versus Tim Pawlenty in one semi-final contests to face off against Michele Bachman or Sarah Palin. Romney is the most likely victor here with T-Paw or Mitt Daniels as the Vice President selection.
Two game changers would be Sarah Palin and Chris Christie but despite some overtures for him to run, I think he probably stays out.
But, this from Romney advisors is kind of strange. Sarah Palin is unpredictable and why antagonize the Mama Grizzly?
In an interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity last week, Palin said she was “still seriously considering it.”
Republicans officials have no idea what she’s planning, although they agree she would have tons to lose by entering a race that would cost her the mystique she has built up. And Romney advisers said her entry would help the former Massachusetts governor dramatically.
“The shock value would cause elected officials and party officials to rally around Mitt, because she’d scare the daylights out of them,” one official said. “And it would allow him to position himself very much in the middle of Republican, conservative thinking and avoid the fringe, and look more moderate for the general election.”
Bachmann would have the same effect, the advisers said. Either of them “gives Romney a bogeyman: ‘Stop this crazy woman.’”
Another top Republican said he relishes the idea of a Palin candidacy: “She’ll be defeated, and we’ll be done with her.”
I think Sarah Palin would be able to defeat Michele Bachmann in Iowa and then South Carolina becomes the battleground, where Romney could finish third or fourth. The race could then blow up and drag on for weeks or months – something the GOP can ill-afford against Obama.
It is probably better for the Romney staff to keep their mouths shut and ask Sarah to give some speeches and do some fundraising for them.