Archive for May 26th, 2011
These are my links for May 26th from 15:28 to 19:44:
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, Pinboard Links
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I had posted on this previously here but here are more of the numbers.
California’s Latino population grew nearly three times as much as the state as a whole in the last decade, making the state home to more than a quarter of the nation’s Latinos, according to a new Census Bureau report.
While California’s population grew by 10 percent, the 2010 census found, the Latino growth was 27.6 percent, accounting for more than 90 percent of the state’s overall population gain. Latinos accounted for more than half of the nation’s growth during the decade and now are 16.3 percent of the U.S. population.
Latinos, the census said, now are 37.6 percent of all Californians, up more than five percentage points since 2000. That percentage is exactly the same as that of Texas, with both states trailing only New Mexico, at 46.3 percent.
Many states have seen higher Latino growth rates than California, some nearly 150 percent, such as Alabama and South Carolina.
Latinos now trail non-Latino whites in California by about four percentage points. They are expected to become the state’s largest ethnic group by mid-decade.
This will mean more Hispanic officeholders as the California Redistricting Commission draws new Legislative and Congressional boundaries based on the census. It will also mean the California GOP may shrink further into irrelevancy like New York, Massachusetts and Maryland since the Republican brand has been tarnished by the national party’s postion on illegal immigration.
Tags: California, Census, Hispanic Vote
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Posted by Flap in Dilbert
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According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Mitt Romney, one of the two leaders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, receives generally equal support across Republican political issue groups. Sarah Palin, the other leader, has a more segmented appeal, with greater support among Republicans most concerned about social and moral issues, and less interest from Republicans focused on government spending and power.
The largest segment of Republicans (36%) continue to say government spending and power is their top concern. Romney does best in this segment, followed by a group of four candidates between 10% and 13% support. Herman Cain, the less well-known candidate — who nevertheless generates a good deal of positive intensity among those who know him — does slightly better than Newt Gingrich, Palin, or Ron Paul within this issue group. Paul, an avowed libertarian, has made the push for restraining government power the hallmark of his political career, but he does not have an unusually strong position among these Republicans.
There has been some talk around the nets that Sarah Palin’s latest bus tour is a charade and that after she milks the media or attention and adoration will withdraw and endorse Herman Cain. Interesting, because Herman Cain has been drawing a lot of attention around Tea party circles.
The second-most-prevalent group consists of Republicans whose most salient issue is business and the economy (31%). Republicans in this group are most likely to favor Romney and Palin, with Paul and Gingrich lagging slightly behind. Romney is the only major GOP candidate who has an MBA and is one of the few candidates who have extensive experience in the corporate world. Cain’s experience includes his position as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, but he does not do particularly well among Republicans whose main interest is business and the economy.
Fifteen percent of Republicans say their main political interest is social issues and moral values. Mike Huckabee dominated as the candidate of choice among this group in previous months, and his announcement on May 14 that he would not be running therefore left a void. Palin now fares best among this group, receiving 23% support, followed by Romney at 18% and Paul at 11%. No other candidate gets double-digit support. In April, Huckabee led with 26% support among this group, while Palin received 18%.
Another 15% of Republicans say national security and foreign policy is their biggest concern. Romney and Palin tie for the lead among this group, with Cain coming in third, slightly ahead of Gingrich.
Without a doubt Sarah Palin entering the race will be a game changer. It means that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman will be dead as an alternative to the “establishment candidate” in Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann will remain a wild card since she will command a large presence in Iowa, the first GOP caucus state.
And, here is a poll of GOP issue priorities:
So, what does this all mean?
Romney’s roughly equal appeal among the four issue-defined segments of Republicans is one of the most interesting outcomes of this research. Romney in general has high favorable ratings and low unfavorable ratings, but he does not generate the same type of intense feelings as do other candidates. These data suggest that Romney does well among Republicans in all four issue segments, but doesn’t have unusually strong appeal in any.
Palin, on the other hand has a more segmented appeal. With Huckabee’s departure from the GOP race, she now fares best among Republicans who say social and moral issues are their top concern, and essentially ties for first among those who favor business and the economy and national security/foreign policy. Palin, however, lags among the largest group of Republicans — those most focused on government spending and power.
Cain, overall one of Republicans’ top five choices for their party’s nomination, despite being recognized by only a third of Republicans, places strongly among Republicans whose most important issue is government spending and power. Cain also does well among national security and foreign policy-interested Republicans.
The other two candidates among Republicans’ top five choices for the nomination — Paul and Gingrich — do not have highly segmented positioning across the GOP interest groups. Paul does less well among those interested in national security and foreign policy, and Gingrich does less well among those interested in social and moral values.
I say it is likely to see a Mitt Romney versus Sarah Palin face-off for the GOP nomination, unless the Bush donors tire of Romney. Then, at this late date, they will try to coerce Chris Christie into the race. In that case, Sarah Palin may win in a three-way contest.
Tags: Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
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These are my links for May 26th from 14:20 to 15:10:
- Republicans need to ‘man up’ on Medicare reform – Yuval Levin wrote:
[T]he new Medicare Trustees report says the program is five years closer to bankruptcy than it seemed to be last year: Its trust fund will run out of money in 2024. But the real shocker in this year’s report is a letter that the chief actuary of Medicare attached to the very end of the report, basically saying that things are much worse than the trustees suggest. The letter (which starts on page 265 of the document and pretty much makes the prior 264 pages moot) first says that the trustees were compelled to adopt some near-term assumptions that are highly implausible.. . .
Then it says that Obamacare, because it calls for across-the-board cuts in Medicare funding but does not put in place the market mechanisms for encouraging greater productivity in health care, spells disaster for Medicare providers, and therefore for Medicare recipients
In other words, as Yuval put it, the message for Republicans (whether they embrace Ryan’s plan or not) is: “Medicare as we know it is on the fast lane to ruin. It’s not the House Republican Budget that is undoing it, it’s the current structure of the program, exacerbated by Obamacare. House Republicans have proposed one way to fix it, which would also help reduce health-care costs more broadly. Surely there are also other ways, but the Democrats haven’t offered any.”
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The GOP needs to go on offense.
- IPAB, Obama, and Socialism – They’re back. Rationing, death panels, socialism, all those nasty old words that helped bring Republicans victory in 2010, and that came to seem so impolite after November of that year. They’re back because of IPAB. Remember that acronym. It stand for The Independent Payment Advisory Board. IPAB is the real death panel, the true seat of rationing, and the royal road to health-care socialism. President Obama won’t admit to any of that, but his speech in response to Paul Ryan’s plan did push IPAB out of the shadows and into public view, however briefly. If Republicans don’t seize the IPAB issue and run with it, they’ll be losers in 2012. Policy wonks and political junkies may know a bit about this health-care rationing panel, but most Americans have barely heard of it. That has got to change. And the only way to expose and explain the dangers of IPAB is to tell the truth about Barack Obama.
In his speech on the deficit, Obama pointed to IPAB as an answer to Paul Ryan’s plan. In Ryan’s vision, competition among insurers will force efficiencies and lower prices. Under Obama’s plan, in contrast, health-care prices for the elderly would be controlled by IPAB. Ryan’s plan puts consumers in the driver’s seat, but also exposes them to the risk of bad choices and limited subsidies. While Obama’s plan offers government-guaranteed care, IPAB’s price controls will lead to one-size-fits-all rationing. As IPAB caps Medicare payments for various services, the elderly will be unable to obtain many kinds of care, or will experience de facto rationing via long treatment delays and sharp declines in the quality of care. And by the way, IPAB rationing will hit many current seniors, whereas Ryan’s reform of Medicare will never affect anyone now 55 or older.
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Read it all
Tags: IPAB, Medicare, Obamacare, Pinboard Links, Ryan
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These are my links for May 26th from 11:50 to 12:42:
Tags: #catcot, #tcot, Dentistry, Pinboard Links
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