• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 27th on 20:54

    These are my links for May 27th from 20:54 to 21:22:

    • Thomas R. Saving and John C. Goodman: Mediscare—The Surprising Truth – WSJ.com – Mediscare—The Surprising Truth
    • Mediscare—The Surprising Truth – The Obama administration has repeatedly claimed that the health-reform bill it passed last year improved Medicare's finances. Although you'd never know it from the current state of the Medicare debate—with the Republicans being portrayed as the Medicare Grinches—the claim is true only because ObamaCare explicitly commits to cutting health-care spending for the elderly and the disabled in future years.

      Yet almost no one familiar with the numbers thinks that the planned brute-force cuts in Medicare spending are politically feasible. Last August, the Office of the Medicare Actuary predicted that Medicare will be paying doctors less than what Medicaid pays by the end of this decade and, by then, one in seven hospitals will have to leave the Medicare system.

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      Read it all

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 27th on 12:00

    These are my links for May 27th from 12:00 to 13:32:

  • Jon Huntsman,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Video: Tim Pawlenty – No RINOS

    Not endorsed by or affiliated with Tim Pawlenty or anyone from his campaign. Produced by SerumVerum. Music by Diego Massanti, Argentina – Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

    Based on the Verum Serum Jon Huntsman is a RINO video, this one is quite good.

    This Tuesday, the conservative blog Verum Serum posted a devastating fake-Huntsman ad detailing the former Utah governor’s support for cap and trade, health care as a right, and Obama’s stimulus.

    Someone isn’t happy with Verum Serum’s handy work. Today, some one calling themselves “SerumVerum” has posted a YouTube that is an almost frame-for-frame remake of the Huntsman ad, but this time the target is former-Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

    I say NO to Pawlenty and Huntsman anyway.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for May 27th on 10:59

    These are my links for May 27th from 10:59 to 11:51:

    • CA-36: Liberals rally to Hahn in California special #CA36 – Liberals are circling the wagons around Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) as she heads into the House special-election runoff with Republican Craig Huey.

      Hahn and Huey, a wealthy businessman, finished first and second in the May 17 primary for former Rep. Jane Harman's (D-Calif.) seat.
       
      Hahn has since been backed by EMILY's List, Gov. Jerry Brown (D), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other members of the California delegation. She's also been endorsed by anti-war activist Marcy Winograd, who placed fourth in primary.

      And on Friday, Hahn found backing in former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean.

      During the primary, Dean backed Debra Bowen, the California secretary of State, who subsequently finished third. The former governor of Vermont said it was now time to move forward to make sure the seat stays in Democratic hands. 

      "With the primary election now behind us, Janice has emerged as our clear and critical choice for the 36th district," Dean said in a statement. "I urge all Democrats to join me in working to get her elected to Congress, and defeat the right wing extremists backing her opponent in this race."

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      The Left will not take this district for granted.

    • New Food Pyramid Coming June 2, USDA Says – In an exclusive interview with WebMD, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says the replacement for the Food Pyramid will be announced on June 2 — and that the new icon heralds a "monumental effort" to improve America's health.

      Why a new icon? The pyramid really does not capture the public's attention anymore, Robert C. Post, PhD, deputy director of the USDA Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, tells WebMD.

      "Consumers can look forward to a new, simple, easy-to-understand cue to prompt healthy choices," Post tells WebMD. "You will get this monumental effort across all agencies as well as the private sector. A partnership with the goal of improving the health of all Americans."

      "This icon really has the potential to trigger an 'aha!' moment, where people say, 'Hey, this is not that hard, I can do this,'" says Kathleen Zelman, RD, WebMD's Director of Nutrition, who is familiar with the USDA plan. "These 'aha!' moments are what make people finally change their behavior."

      The release of the icon marks the launch of a massive effort to promote the USDA/HHS dietary guidelines announced last January.

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      More Big Government…..

    • Nonsurgical Device Effective for Adult Male Circumcision – A simple disposable device, known as PrePex, can be used to effectively circumcise male adults without anesthesia or a sterile environment and with no blood loss, and patients can return to work within hours, investigators announced here at the American Urological Association (AUA) 2011 Annual Scientific Meeting.

      The device can handle the increase in HIV-prevention male circumcision in high-risk resource-limited settings like sub-Saharan Africa.

      In all, "22 million of the 33.4 million HIV-infected individuals worldwide live in sub-Saharan Africa. Scale-up of adult male circumcision in this region is a challenge because the standard surgical procedure is relatively difficult to perform and requires a surgeon or highly skilled medical professional, along with expensive instruments," Muyenzi Leon Ngeruka, MD, a staff surgeon at Kanombe Hospital in Kigali, Rwanda, told Medscape Medical News. "In sub-Saharan Africa, there is a lack of medical infrastructure."

      He added that a "benefit of the device is that it can be deployed by minimally trained healthcare professionals in urban or rural environments without the need for a sterile hospital setting. We therefore believe that the new device can facilitate a rapid scale-up of adult male circumcision."

      Dr. Ngeruka presented results of a study of 50 healthy men, 18 to 35 years of age, who were recently circumcised using the device.

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      Read it all.

      I guess if San Francisco and Santa Monica ban circumcision, then these folks can use this device.

  • Census,  Election 2010,  Hispanic Vote,  President 2012

    Hispanic Vote 2010: No Discernible Trend?

    Apparently so in an analysis of recent census bureau data.

    Before the 2010 election some commentators argued that the failure to address immigration would increase Hispanic turnout, while others argued it would cause them to stay home. New Census Bureau voting data show that neither of these predictions was correct. Hispanic turnout conformed to the pattern of recent mid-term elections.

    Here are the findings:

    • Prior to the 2010 election, the Center for Immigration Studies projected that Hispanics would comprise 6.8 percent of the national electorate in congressional elections. The new data from the Census Bureau almost exactly match this projection, with Hispanics comprising 6.9 percent of the vote.
    • Our projection was correct because it was based on the assumption that Hispanic turnout would follow past patterns for mid-term elections and that Hispanics would neither be especially animated nor especially disengaged in 2010.
    • The 31.2 percent of Hispanic citizens who voted in 2010 matches the 31.2 percent who voted in the 2002 mid-term election, and is very similar to the 32.3 percent who voted in 2006. All of these values fall within the margin of error of ± 1.7 percentage points and indicate that 2010 was not unusual.
    • In addition to the 6.9 percent of voters who identified as Hispanic in the 2010 election, 77.5 percent of voters identified as non-Hispanic white, 11.5 percent as non-Hispanic black, and 2.4 percent identified as non-Hispanic Asian.
    • The size of the Hispanic vote varied significantly by state. In 2010, Hispanics were less than 5 percent of the vote in 39 states plus the District of Columbia, and more than 10 percent of the vote in only five states (New Mexico, California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida).
    • Polling of Hispanics indicates that immigration is not one of the top issues for Hispanics. Similar to other voters, education, jobs, health care, and the federal deficit all rank above immigration in importance.1
    • This does not mean immigration is unimportant to Hispanics. What is does mean is that it was not an issue that was important enough in 2010 to have a discernible impact on their overall turnout.
    • Only 27 percent of Hispanic voters in the 2010 election were immigrants themselves (naturalized U.S. citizens) and just 14.9 percent lived in the same households as a non-citizen. The lack of direct personal experience with immigration may explain why the issue does not rank higher in importance to Hispanic voters.
    • CNN’s national exit polls showed that, in 2010, 60 percent of Hispanics voted for Democrats and 38 percent voted for Republicans. This compares to 69 percent and 30 percent in the last mid-term election in 2006. If the failure to address immigration played a role in Hispanic voting, it seems to have helped Republicans.2
    • However, the increase in the Republican share of the Hispanic vote in 2010 is almost certainly related to general voter dissatisfaction with the economy, and parallels gains that Republicans made among many demographic groups.

    Here is a graph on Hispanic share of adults, citizens and voters from 2000 to 2010.

    Note the lower rate of share of voters

    In the next table, you will see the number and percentage of the vote by race and ethnicity in 2010.

    Figure 2 and table 1 show that the Hispanic vote is steadily increasing but continues to be a relatively modest share nationally of the total vote.

    Using the 2010 election as an example, the white electorate was 11 times larger in 2010 than the Hispanic electorate. This means that 1 percent of the white electorate equals 11 percent of the Hispanic electorate. Or put a different way, if a national candidate increased his or her share of the Hispanic vote by 11 percentage points, but in the process lost one percentage point of the white vote, there would no net gain in votes. Although the overall Hispanic population is now significantly larger than the overall black population, the black electorate is still much larger. In 2010, the black electorate was 64 percent larger than the Hispanic electorate.

    Let’s look at Hispanics by state.

    The size of the Hispanic vote varied significantly by state and Hispanics are concentrated in five states – California, Florida, Texas, New York and Arizona. As a share of voters, Hispanics were more than 30 per cent of the vote in New Mexico and between 10 and 20 per cent in California, Arizona,Texas and Florida.

    There were six states (Nevada, New York, Colorado, New Jersey, Hawaii, and Illinois) in which Hispanics were between 5 and 10 percent of the electorate in 2010. Of these, Nevada and Colorado are often considered battleground states. In most of the other traditional battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and New Hampshire, Hispanics are a small fraction of voters.

    So, what this all mean?

    Don’t look for Hispanic pandering to be a part of the national GOP election in 2012.

    The path to winning the White House through the electoral college will not be through any states where Hispanics vote will make a difference, except perhaps in Florida, where a Cuban American Hispanics have an electoral presence in the GOP primary.

  • Herman Cain,  Jon Huntsman,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2102 Poll Watch: Giuliani 16% Vs. Romney 15% Vs. Palin 13% Vs. Paul 12% Vs. Cain 10%

    According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.

    • Giuliani 16%
    • Romney 15%
    • Palin 13%
    • Paul 12%
    • Cain 10%
    • Gingrich 8%
    • Bachmann 7%
    • Pawlenty 5%
    • Santorum 2%
    • Huntsman 1%
    • Johnson 1%
    • Roemer *
    • Someone else (vol.) 3%
    • None/ No one (vol.) 5%
    • No opinion

    And, who would be your second choice?

    • Romney 15%
    • Giuliani 14%
    • Gingrich 10%
    • Bachmann 10%
    • Palin 10%
    • Paul 7%
    • Pawlenty 6%
    • Huntsman 6%
    • Cain 5%
    • Santorum 2%
    • Johnson 2%
    • Karger *
    • Roemer 1%
    • Someone else (vol.) 4%
    • None/ No one (vol.) 8%
    • No opinion 2%

    An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.

    But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin.

    GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:

    • Romney 19%
    • Palin 15%
    • Paul 13%
    • Cain 11%
    • Gingrich 11%
    • Bachmann 7%
    • Pawlenty 5%
    • Huntsman 3%
    • Santorum 2%
    • Johnson 2%
    • Roemer 1%
    • Someone else (vol.) 3%
    • None/ No one (vol.) 6%
    • No opinion 2%

    GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:

    • Romney 21%
    • Paul 15%
    • Cain 13%
    • Gingrich 12%
    • Bachmann 9%
    • Pawlenty 5%
    • Huntsman 3%
    • Santorum 3%
    • Johnson 2%
    • Roemer 1%
    • Someone else (vol.) 5%
    • None/ No one (vol.) 9%
    • No opinion 2%

    This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.

  • Herman Cain,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Ohio GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Vs. Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Herman Cain 12%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Sarah Palin – 66% vs. 24%
    • Mitt Romney – 55% Vs. 25%
    • Newt Gingrich – 42% vs. 34%

    GOP Primary Head to Head:

    • Romney – 21%
    • Palin – 16%
    • Cain – 12%
    • Gingrich – 12%
    • Bachmann – 10%
    • Paul – 9%
    • Pawlenty – 5%
    • Huntsman – 1%
    • Someone else/not sure – 15%

    The entire poll is here.

    Romney’s ahead in Ohio because he has a broad lead with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative,’ getting 27% with Gingrich coming in second at 14%. He’s also ahead with moderates at 22% to Palin’s 18%. Voters falling into the ‘very conservative’ camp continue to be a problem for him though. His favorability with them is a +37 spread at 61/24. That puts him a whooping 33 points below Palin’s standing with that same group, which is a +70 spread at 83/13. 

    Palin leads the horse race with those voters at 20% with Michele Bachmann at 15%, and Romney tying Cain for third at 13%. Maybe voters on the far right will split their votes enough that their lack of support doesn’t cost Romney the nomination but for now they look like they could be a big problem.

    Ohio is a key battleground state and one that the GOP desperately needs to win the general election in the Electoral College. Sarah Palin is showing some signs of a resurgence in the polling now that Mike Huckabee has left the race. I suspect votes for Hermain Cain would go to Palin once she officially declares her candidacy.

    Tim Pawlenty is trailing badly and Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are looking more like an anti-Romney candidate (s).