• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for June 17th on 14:27

    These are my links for June 17th from 14:27 to 18:38:

  • American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Inflation,  Jimmy Carter,  Misery Index

    Misery Index: Barack Obama is a One Term Jimmy Carter Type President?

    If the Misery index of unemployment and inflation is the harbinger of election 2012, Barack Obama will NOT be re-elected.

    When it comes to measuring the combination of unemployment and inflation, it doesn’t get much more miserable than this.

    In fact, misery, as measured in the unofficial Misery Index that simply totals the unemployment and inflation rates, is at a 28-year high, reflective of how weak the economic recovery has been and how far there is to go.

    The index, first compiled during the soaring inflation days of the 1970s by economist Arthur Okun, is registering a nausea-inducing 12.7—9.1 percent for unemployment and 3.6 percent for annualized inflation—a number not seen since 1983. The index has been above 10 since November 2009 and had been under double-digits from June 1993 through May 2008.

    But, President Reagan in the 1980’s had a plan to wring the misery out of the economy (created by President Jimmy Carter’s economic policies) – cuts in government spending, tax reform and tax cuts. Plus, Paul Volcker’s tight money policy at the Fed helped control inflation. I remember the high inflationary price pressures, high gold prices and rampant real estate speculation – plus, the gasoline lines under Carter.

    Reagan won the election in 1980 with his plan to right the economy.

    Without these policy changes and a dramatic improvement of the economy, Reagan would NOT have been re-elected in 1984.

    President Obama knows what has worked in the past. He simply doesn’t believe these measures will work because of his political ideology of tax and redistribution of wealth.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for June 17th on 08:43

    These are my links for June 17th from 08:43 to 13:07:

  • Amazon Tax,  California,  California Budget,  Internet Sales Taxes

    Is the California Amazon Internet Sales Tax Legislation Dead?

    It is hard to say since California Proposition 25 language in the bill (tax increases requiring a 2/3’rds super majority) makes for some legal incongruity and the fact that Governor Jerry Brown vetoed the enabling California Budget bill .

    Here is the bill.

    ABX1 28 (Blumenfield)
    State Board of Equalization: administration: retailer engaged in business in this state.

    The Sales and Use Tax Law imposes a tax on retailers measured by the gross receipts from the sale of tangible personal property sold at retail in this state, or on the storage, use, or other consumption in this state of tangible personal property purchased from a retailer for storage, use, or other consumption in this state, measured by sales price. That law defines a ?retailer engaged in business in this state? to include retailers that engage in specified activities in this state and requires every retailer engaged in business in this state and making sales of tangible personal property for storage, use, or other consumption in this state to register with the State Board of Equalization and to collect the tax from the purchaser and remit it to the board.

    This bill would further define a retailer engaged in business in this state as a retailer that has substantial nexus with this state and a retailer upon whom federal law permits the state to impose a use tax collection duty. The bill would also include specified retailers as retailers engaged in business in this state and would eliminate an exclusion.

    This bill would include in the definition of a retailer engaged in business in this state any retailer entering into agreements under which a person or persons in this state, for a commission or other consideration, directly or indirectly refer potential purchasers, whether by an Internet-based link or an Internet Web site, or otherwise, to the retailer, provided the total cumulative sales price from all sales by the retailer to purchasers in this state that are referred pursuant to these agreements is in excess of $10,000 within the preceding 12 months, and provided further that the retailer has cumulative sales of tangible personal property to purchasers in this state of over $500,000, within the preceding 12 months, except as specified. This bill would also provide that a retailer entering into specified agreements to purchase advertising is not a retailer engaged in business in this state and would define a retailer to include an entity affiliated with a retailer under federal income tax law, as specified. This bill would further provide that these provisions would not apply if the retailer can demonstrate that the referrals wold not satisfy specified United States constitutional requirements, as provided.

    This bill would also include as a retailer engaged in business in this state as a retailer that is a member of a commonly controlled group, as defined under the Corporation Tax Law, and a member of a combined reporting group, as defined, that includes another member of the retailer?s commonly controlled group that, pursuant to an agreement with or in cooperation with the retailer, performs services in this state in connection with tangible personal property to be sold by the retailer.

    This bill would provide that the provisions of this bill are severable.

    This bill would appropriate $1,000 from the General Fund to the State Board of Equalization for administrative operations.

    The California Constitution authorizes the Governor to declare a fiscal emergency and to call the Legislature into special session for that purpose. Governor Schwarzenegger issued a proclamation declaring a fiscal emergency, and calling a special session for this purpose, on December 6, 2010. Governor Brown issued a proclamation on January 20, 2011, declaring and reaffirming that a fiscal emergency exists and stating that his proclamation supersedes the earlier proclamation for purposes of that constitutional provision.

    This bill would state that it addresses the fiscal emergency declared and reaffirmed by the Governor by proclamation issued on January 20, 2011, pursuant to the California Constitution.

    This bill would declare that it is to take immediate effect as a bill providing for appropriations related to the Budget Bill.

    The lawyers will have to get together on this one but at first blush and with the solence coming from Amazon and Overstock.com, my bet is that the legislation is dead.

    Thank goodness! I can keep my meager Amazon Associate status – at least for today.

    Stay tuned….

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Watch: Michele Bachmann Breaks Through

    According to the latest Magellan Strategies for NH Journal Poll.

    • Mitt Romney – 42%
    • Michele Bachmann – 10%
    • Ron Paul – 10%
    • Sarah Palin – 7%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 6%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 5%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4%
    • Herman Cain – 3%
    • Jon Huntsman – 3%

    There is little doubt that Michele Bachmann’s debate performance this week is propelling these poll numbers.

    With Bachmann’s strength in Iowa, the likelihood of a win there, and while she trails former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by a goodly amount now, she is poised to give him battle in New Hampshire.

    Michele Bachmann is emerging as the anti-establsihment, Tea Party and anti-Romney candidate.

    But the most surprising numbers emerged when we asked which candidates had the strongest debate performance. We asked this question of the 54% of respondents who said they watched the televised debate either on WMUR or CNN.

    Thirty-nine percent said Romney gave the strongest performance. But an impressive 28% said Bachmann did. No other candidate finished in double-digits. Among self-identified conservatives who watched the debate, Bachmann performed even better. Among this group, 37% said Romney had the strongest performance, while 33% said Bachmann.

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: Janice Hahn’s Ugly Campaign Against Craig Huey Turning Off Voters

    Pretty typical of Janice Hahn and the desperate California Democrats to slime Republican Craig Huey – see the mailer graphic above.

    But, what they didn’t foresee is how it is turning off voters.

    This upcoming special election on July 12 has me in a quandary. I’m a Democrat, but I can’t bring myself to vote for Hahn, our Los Angeles councilwoman, because  I know all that she has not done for our community.

    After Hahn’s more than a decade on the City Council, Los Angeles continues to struggle with financial issues and a pile of other nasty problems while she fiddles with issues such as the Arizona boycott because of the Grand Canyon state’s stance on immigration. But what disturbs me the most are all the things Hahn could have done in her own backyard.

    Hahn has done so little about serious issues that it’s hampered growth in our area. Yet she deplores Huey in her campaign for his anti-abortion stance and claims he’s too much like Sarah Palin.

    That must mean she can’t dig up better, more worthwhile issues.

    As I’ve watched our community deteriorate under Hahn’s watch, I can’t imagine what she could do for us in Congress–if anything.  You get what you vote for.

    Well, if this Democrat elects to stay home and others do the same Janice Hahn may be in deep trouble.

    The fact is Janice Hahn has been an abysmal POL, trading on her old man’s name and using the unions to bash her way into office. Look at what has happened in her council district and Southern California and tell me whether she really deserves a promotion.

  • American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: Unemployment Remains at 2010 Levels – Underemployment Remains High

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 8.9% in mid-June — down from 9.2% at the end of May and 9.1% in mid-June a year ago.

    The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work is 9.7%.


    And, underemployment is down slightly but still as high as in mid-June 2010
    . Underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of unemployed with the percentage working part-time but want full-time work.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Although there is a small improvement in American unemployment, the unemployment rate remains high – around 2010 levels. Underemployment has not improved since last year. And, since last year’s rates were improving like 2011, this may be due to seasonal employment, which means the job market is flat.

    Not a good report for the Obama Administration and the President’s re-election campaign.

    Gallup’s U.S. unemployment and underemployment data indicate a modest improvement in job market conditions in mid-June compared with the end of May. This may partly result from a seasonal increase in employer hiring; Gallup’s data do not adjust for such changes. Still, underemployment remains at 2010 levels.

    However, unemployment and underemployment tend to lag economic activity. Gallup’s employment data from the second quarter of the year are consistent with the modest 1.8% U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011. But Gallup’s measures did not show the improvement suggested by the government’s unemployment numbers earlier this year or the deterioration during April and May. Instead, they have shown the 2011 unemployment situation to be similar to that of 2010.

  • California,  California Budget,  California Economy,  California Unemployment,  Flap's California Morning Collection,  Jerry Brown

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 17, 2011

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    The big news in California today is the Jerry Brown veto of the California State budget yesterday. A budget passed over the objections and votes of the California GOP. In other words, Brown vetoed (the first such veto in California history) his own Democratic Party’s majority passed budget.

    So, what is everyone concerned about in the Capitol today?

    Why, it is whether California Legislators will get paid.

    Wow!

    In the meantime, the California economy continues in a downward spiral and unemployment actually increased this past month.

    No word on the ridiculous Amazon Tax, but I assume that it was vetoed with the California Budget veto yesterday. But, I could be wrong. How convenient for the Governor though.

    On to the links…..

    California loses 29,200 jobs in May, a blow to recovery

    California’s economic recovery stumbled in May as employers shed 29,200 jobs from payrolls, a surprisingly large loss in a state that had been on the mend. The state’s unemployment rate still dropped to 11.7%,  from 11.8% the month before, according to numbers released this morning by the federal  Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The numbers follow a slate of bad economic news throughout the country. The nation added just 54,000 jobs in May, and its unemployment rate grew to 9.1%. The previous three months, it had added an average of 220,000 jobs a month. Home prices have dropped in California and the nation to surprising lows as sales slow.

    California has the second-highest unemployment rate in the nation, after Nevada, although Nevada’s unemployment rate dropped significantly in May, to 12.1% from 14.9% the year before.

    California had added an adjusted 14,900 jobs in April, after cutting a net 11,600 in March. It experienced five straight months of job growth from October through February.

    “We do know that the picture is not terribly rosy,” said Johannes Moenius, an economist at University of Redlands.

    Brown’s big budget bet

    Gov. Jerry Brown’s veto of the new state budget Democrats passed this week represents a gamble that California’ deadlocked Legislature can find its way to a bipartisan solution that has evaded it all year.

    Brown, in his veto message, blamed Republicans for refusing to go along with his proposal for a special election at which voters would be asked to ratify the extension of about $10 billion in taxes due to expire at the end of this month.

    Brown also slammed his fellow Democrats, indirectly, by describing the budget they passed as filled with “legally questionable maneuvers, costly borrowing and unrealistic savings.” He noted that it would leave the state’s books unbalanced for years to come and add billions of dollars of new debt to the California’s already overburdened balance sheet.

    But Brown’s rejection of the budget does not guarantee he is going to get anything better from the Legislature in the days and weeks ahead.

    Republicans remain opposed to new taxes, and even to extending the temporary taxes that are about to expire. Democrats remain opposed to making the kind of spending cuts that would be required to balance the budget without those taxes. There appears to be very little middle ground.

    Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Marathon: Judge extends McCourt talks, deal might be close

    Superior Court Judge Scott Gordon on Thursday rescinded his finding that Frank and Jamie McCourt were at an impasse in their settlement talks, and he set a hearing for later today to determine if a deal had been reached. “I think we are close,” said Jamie’s lawyer Dennis Wasser, according to AP. “Hopefully, we can get it done tonight.

    Dan Walters: If California legislators get paid, vetoed budget is giant charade

    That presumes, of course, that the Democratic budget somehow put pressure on Republicans. In fact, it may have had the opposite effect of increasing their leverage on Brown to make concessions to get his centerpiece, an extension of expiring sales, income and car taxes, on the ballot.

    A complicating factor is that Steinberg, Pérez and public employee unions really don’t want the fall election that Brown seeks on taxes, fearing – with good reason – that voters would reject them.

    Still another is the new state law that strips legislators of salaries and expense checks, about $400 per day each, if a budget is not passed by June 15.

    Controller John Chiang has appointed himself the law’s enforcer. Legislative leaders contend that Wednesday’s budget action complies, but Brown’s declaration that the budget was unbalanced gives Chiang grounds to stop the paychecks if he wishes.

    Chiang was waffling Thursday, saying he wants “to complete our analysis” before deciding whether to pay lawmakers at the end of the month.

    If Chiang pays legislators, the rejected budget will look like a giant charade by Democrats to evade the law.

    Non-Californians at UC campuses get summer subsidy

    A taxpayer subsidy that out-of-state students enrolled in the University of California system have been receiving for years is under scrutiny as the schools search for extra revenue.

    During the regular school year, nonresidents pay up to three times as much as students from California, bringing the universities a few hundred million dollars. But partly due to measures taken to boost summer enrollment, they are spared from paying higher fees for summer classes.

    “It seems out of sync,” said Steve Boilard, director of higher education policy for the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

    Enjoy your morning!