• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for June 28th on 12:20

    June 28, 2011 /

    These are my links for June 28th from 12:20 to 17:46:

  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 New Hampshire Poll Watch: Obama Job Approval Only 39%

    June 28, 2011 /

    Accroding to the latest ARG poll.

    Obama Job Approval Ratings in New Hampshire

    • Overall – 39% Approve Vs. 54% Disapprove Vs.7% Undecided
    • Economy – 31%  Approve Vs. 56% Disapprove Vs. 13% Undecided

    New Hampshire is a key battleground state and one that the GOP needs to win in order to deny President Obama a second term. The GOP is looking pretty good here.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Oregon GOP Poll Watch: Without Sarah Palin in the Race Michele Bachmann Leads in Oregon

    June 28, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    GOP Primary election with Sarah Palin as a candidate:

    • Mitt  Romney – 28%
    • Michele Bachmann – 18%
    • Sarah Palin – 16%
    • Ron Paul – 9%
    • Herman Cain – 8%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Newt Gingrich – 6%
    • Jon Huntsman – 0%

    GOP Primary election without Sarah Palin as a candidate:

    • Mitt  Romney – 28%
    • Michele Bachmann – 29%
    • Ron Paul – 10%
    • Herman Cain – 7%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Newt Gingrich – 9%
    • Jon Huntsman – 2%

    Michele Bachmann is polling well in Oregon and this poll and in other states are being referred to as the Bachmann “Surge.” The LEFT is sure picking on Michele with “gotcha moments” with everything she says.

    I guess they can read the polls too.

    After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support. 

    If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin. 

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for June 28th on 11:00

    June 28, 2011 /

    These are my links for June 28th from 11:00 to 11:07:

    • More Details Emerge in Wisconsin’s ‘Chokegate’ – To date, Bradley has not filed any kind of charges against Prosser. Instead, the story was leaked to the George Soros–funded Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, who used three anonymous sources to back up Bradley’s story. There were six justices present at the time of the incident, four of whom would be more likely to back Prosser’s version of the story. That leaves Abrahamson and Bradley as the only two remaining justices present. One source present speculated the third source may have been Bradley’s law clerk, who likely didn’t actually see the confrontation but may have head Bradley shout “I was choked.”

      Speculation is abundant as to why Bradley decided to forgo a criminal complaint against Prosser, deciding instead to go to the press ten days after the event. Some say Bradley’s complaint wouldn’t have stood up if given the scrutiny of a criminal investigation. Furthermore, others speculate that if any formal criminal proceedings had moved forward (a restraining-order filing, for instance), Prosser would be afforded evidentiary hearings, testimony, and discovery.

      Furthermore, sources unanimously believed that it was Shirley Abrahamson who has been the impetus behind the story, managing the press operation from behind the scenes. Justices had been working together regularly since the incident without any signs of rancor until Abrahamson decided to make this an issue, sources believe.

      While Bradley has not filed any charges against Prosser, an investigation was initiated by the Capitol Police, who then quickly turned the case over to the Dane County Sheriff, David Mahoney — who once actually appeared in a campaign ad supporting the reelection of Chief Justice Abrahamson. The ad also included not-yet-famous circuit-court judge Maryann Sumi, whose ruling the Supreme Court had to vacate in order to allow Scott Walker’s collective-bargaining bill to stand.

    • Tom Petty reportedly issuing cease and desist letter to Michele Bachmann – Tom Petty may be taking legal action to make sure Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann stops using his songs at her campaign events.

      “NBC News: @TomPetty unhappy with Michele Bachmann’s use of ‘American Girl’ and in process of issuing [a cease and desist] letter,” Matt Ortega reported on Twitter only hours after hours after Bachmann used the popular song to kick off her campaign.

      NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell confirmed that report Monday night.

      “And details matter, and when Bachmann left the stage here, her campaign played the Tom Petty hit song, ‘American Girl,’” O’Donnell said. “Turns out petty isn’t pleased. His manager says they will ask the Bachmann campaign not to use that song.”

      Petty also issued a cease and desist letter to then-Governor George W. Bush for illegally using “I won’t back down” at his rallies.

      “The impression that you and your campaign have been endorsed by Tom Petty, which is not true,” music publisher Wixen Music Publishing Inc. told the Bush campaign.

      To make matters worse for Bachmann, former RNC Online Communications Director Liz Mair made this observation about the use of the Petty’s tune: “Isn’t that what the kidnapped politician’s daughter was singing in ‘Silence of the Lambs?’

      Mair appears to have since deleted that tweet.

      ======

      Big deal – all of the old has-been rock stars are old lefties. Tom Petty is no exception.

    • NBC Nightly News Reports Bachmann’s John Wayne Gaffe, Ignores Obama’s Fallen Soldier Error – As NewsBusters reported last week, President Obama on Thursday said he had literally awarded a Medal of Honor to one Jared Monti, meaning in person while he was alive.

      Unfortunately, Monti was bestowed this honor posthumously in 2009 having been killed in Afghanistan three years prior. Obama later apologized to the family for his misstatement.

      Despite the seriousness of this gaffe, MSNBC and NBC have yet to report it. In fact, according to LexisNexis, through Sunday, not one television news network has.

      It appears a Republican presidential candidate confusing the names of two small Iowa towns most people have never heard of is far more important than a sitting president mistaking a fallen hero for a live one.

      But O'Donnell wasn't done with the Bachmann bashing:

      O'DONNELL: Bachmann told me she expects greater scrutiny and needs to be more careful.

      BACHMANN: I will make mistakes. It will happen. But I will tell you to the very best of my ability, I'll try and get everything right that is coming out of my mouth.

      O’DONNELL: And details matter, and when Bachmann left the stage here, her campaign played the Tom Petty hit song, “American Girl." Turns out petty isn't pleased. His manager says they will ask the Bachmann campaign not to use that song. They also asked George W. Bush not to use any of his music. But Hillary Clinton did use "American Girl" throughout her campaign in 2008

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann In a Strong Position in GOP Field

    June 28, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who formally announced her presidential candidacy Monday in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa, enters the race with 69% name recognition among Republicans and ties for the highest Positive Intensity Score of any GOP candidate Gallup tracks.

    Bachmann finds herself in a relatively positive position among Republicans as she begins her formal campaign. Her name recognition is up to 69% for the two-week period of June 13-26, having climbed from 52% in late February/early March. This places her fifth among the most well-known Republicans Gallup measures, behind Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul, but well ahead of Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and several other competitors. Bachmann’s Positive Intensity Score of 24 ties with Herman Cain’s as the highest such score of any candidate, and is her highest to date. Bachmann’s ability to maintain her relatively high Positive Intensity Score as she has become better known distinguishes her from several of her competitors.

    The intensity of the personal attacks and the chatter about Bachmann’s misstatements about John Wayne and John Quincy Adams show the threat she poses to the LEFT and President Obama. They are trying to give Bachmann the same Saul Alinsky type ridicule treatment as they gave to Sarah Palin. I don’t think it will stick as it is a worn out theme.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Michele Bachmann is in a good position to be the anti-Romney Tea Party candidate. She will run to the RIGHT of the GOP establishment candidate, Romney. The native born Iowan and Minnesota Rep. Bachmann should be able to turn back Mitt Romney in Iowa. In fact, most pundits feel Iowa’s GOP Caucuses are Bachmann’s to lose.

    The GOP race next moves to New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney is far ahead in the polls. Then, Nevada where Romney has the advantage.

    South Carolina would be the next test for Bachmann. If she survives, then Florida and Super Tuesday.

    Now, all of this is predicated on the fact of a non-candidacy of Sarah Palin. Should Sarah enter the race, all bets are off and hold onto your hats.

    Two Republican presidential candidates — Bachmann and Cain — stand out significantly above the others in terms of the positive intensity they generate from Republicans who know them. These two candidates have generally received the most positive emotional responses from Republicans all year, and, in the case of Bachmann, this has now manifested itself in strong showings in trial-heat polls conducted in Iowa and an increased national stature.

    On the other hand, the images of other candidates who have announced their candidacies have become less rather than more positive. Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Pawlenty all now have lower Positive Intensity Scores than earlier this year, even as they have campaigned more actively.

    Romney too has seen his Positive Intensity Score slide slightly in this latest reporting period, and on this dimension he sits well behind Bachmann and Cain — although ahead of most of his other competitors except for the unannounced Palin.

  • Animals

    Updated:Upset Possible: CA-36: Janice Hahn Refuses to Mention She is a Democrat in Television Ads – Something Going On in This Race?

    June 28, 2011 /
    +++++Update+++++

    Now, a national Republican pundit, Michael Barone is taking interest in a possible upset.

    The beach towns, originally settled by Midwestern retirees, were historically Republican. By the 1990s, however, the population had shifted to a younger generation, and the area, like so many other relatively high-education, high-income suburbs in major non-Southern metropolitan areas, trended heavily toward the Democrats. Hahn’s ads are clearly designed to appeal to cultural liberals and seem to totally ignore the fiscal and economic issues which are of paramount importance to most voters across the nation. A Republican victory would suggest that cultural issues are of far less importance than they were in the 1995-2005 period, when partisan preferences seemed frozen, and that affluent suburban voters are open to voting Republican on economic issues.

    This was supposed to be an easy race for Democrats. Under California’s new primary rules, the top two candidates in the primary face off in the general election, and it was expected that the top two candidates in the May 17 primary would be Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen. Huey edged Bowen out for second place, but even so I thought that his chances of winning the seat were negligible. Now they seem somewhat better than that, although I think oddsmakers would still have to favor Hahn. But oddsmakers can be wrong, as the voters in the New York 26th district demonstrated.

    Upset possible? I would not sell Craig Huey short here.

    When the lefty site Daily Kos makes a mention on this race between Craig Huey and Janice Hahn in California Congressional District 36 that something is going on, one has to wonder.

    Democrat Janice Hahn has two new “contrast” ads out — spots which start by attacking Craig Huey for his extremism and finish by touting Hahn’s own credentials. Something must really be up in this race, because the second ad (both are available at the link) focuses on Hahn’s “non-partisan” credentials and both shy away from mentioning her party affiliation. If an out-and-proud Democrat is having a hard time winning in this district… just oy.

    Well, there has been little buzz about this race lately and no “leaked” internal polling. I suspect this race is close.

    Remember this is a July 12th special election and Craig Huey WILL turn out his conservative/Republican voters even though they are badly outnumbered in CA-36.

    An upset in the making?

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for June 28th on 08:24

    June 28, 2011 /

    These are my links for June 28th from 08:24 to 09:02:

    • Simi, Moorpark formally oppose congressional redistricting plan – The cities of Simi Valley and Moorpark on Monday formally urged the California Citizens Redistricting Commission to rethink its proposal to place them in a congressional district that includes parts of Los Angeles County.

      The Simi Valley City Council adopted a resolution to that effect. Moorpark Mayor Janice Parvin sent a letter to the commission outlining her opposition.

      The Simi council's resolution also urged the commission to modify its proposal to place about 2,000 Simi residents in a different congressional district than the rest of the city.

      "To lop us off makes no sense whatsoever," Mayor Bob Huber said at a special meeting of the council he convened Monday morning because of what he said was the urgency of the matter. "It's just so wrong what they're doing. My strong feeling is we keep the whole county together."

      Noting the city has previously expressed its opposition to the proposals in letters to the commission, Huber said, "I think we need something a little stronger like an actual resolution that they can see and understand how strong we feel."

    • Bachmann is so not ready for presidency, but Pawlenty has the judgment and skills – In early 2012, Iowans in all 99 counties will bundle up, brave the cold night air, and join neighbors and fellow Republicans in casting their vote for the next president of the United States. Being Iowa, many caucus attendees will have personally met some or all of the candidates, will have had a chance to participate in town hall meetings, to ask questions, and to compare backgrounds and experience in this crucial race for the White House.

      I, too, have gotten to know some of the candidates. It is safe to say that I am one of just a handful of people who have worked closely with two of the candidates for president.

      As the former chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party during the tenure of Gov. Tim Pawlenty, as well as the former chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, I have watched both candidates from behind the public scene. I've seen how they handle the pressures of the job; I've seen how they lead a staff; and I've seen how they would govern if elected to the most powerful office in the world.

      Having seen the two of them, up close and over a long period of time, it is clear to me that while Tim Pawlenty possesses the judgment, the demeanor, and the readiness to serve as president, Michele Bachmann decidedly does not.

      =======

      The long knives are out for Michele Bachmann. But, will it roll off of her back or will the real beneficiary be Mitt Romney?

    • President 2012: Michele Bachmann accepts Chris Wallace’s apology – In an interview by Sean Hannity’s last night, Rep. Michele Bachmann said she had gotten a call early last evening from Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace, who apologized for the way he put the “flake” question during Sunday’s interview. She recounted that she was happy to accept the apology and that “we’re moving on.”

      ======

      Move along….

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: Janice Hahn Refuses to Mention She is a Democrat in Television Ads – Something Going On in This Race?

    June 28, 2011 /

    When the lefty site Daily Kos makes a mention on this race between Craig Huey and Janice Hahn in California Congressional District 36 that something is going on, one has to wonder.

    Democrat Janice Hahn has two new “contrast” ads out — spots which start by attacking Craig Huey for his extremism and finish by touting Hahn’s own credentials. Something must really be up in this race, because the second ad (both are available at the link) focuses on Hahn’s “non-partisan” credentials and both shy away from mentioning her party affiliation. If an out-and-proud Democrat is having a hard time winning in this district… just oy.

    Well, there has been little buzz about this race lately and no “leaked” internal polling. I suspect this race is close.

    Remember this is a July 12th special election and Craig Huey WILL turn out his conservative/Republican voters even though they are badly outnumbered in CA-36.

    An upset in the making?

  • Amazon Tax,  California,  California Budget,  Jerry Brown,  Lois Capps

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 28, 2011

    June 28, 2011 /

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    Yesterday afternoon Democratic Governor Jerry Brown and Democratic Legislative leaders announced a new agreement on a majority-vote California state budget. Here are the details:

    It maintains parts of the package Brown vetoed nearly two weeks ago:
    — $150 million cut each to University of California, California State University
    — $150 million cut to state courts
    — $200 million in Amazon online tax enforcement
    — $2.8 billion in deferrals to K-12 schools and community colleges
    — $300 million from $12 per vehicle increase in DMV registration fee
    — $50 million from fire fee for rural homeowners
    — $1.7 billion from redevelopment agencies
    — Higher tax receipts (now worth $1.2 billion from May and June)

    The new budget rejects some parts of that package:
    — $1.2 billion from selling state buildings
    — $900 million from raising a quarter-cent local sales tax
    — $1 billion from First 5 commissions
    — $500 million cut in local law enforcement grants
    — $540 million deferral to University of California
    — $700 million in federal funds for Medi-Cal errors

    And it adds the following:
    — $4 billion in higher projected revenues in 2011-12, with triggered cuts
    — 1.06 percentage point sales tax swap that redirects money to local governments for Brown’s “realignment” plan rather than to the state. Sales tax rate will still fall 1 percent on July 1.

    The $4 billion “trigger” plan bears some explaining.

    First, the plan requires Brown’s Department of Finance director, Ana Matosantos, to certify in January whether the $4 billion projection is accurate. She will use revenue totals for July to December and economic indicators to project the remainder of the fiscal year.

    The “trigger” cuts are essentially in three tiers, based on how much of the extra $4 billion comes in.

    Tier 0: If the state gets $3 billion to $4 billion of the money, the state will not impose additional cuts and roll over any balance of problem into the 2012-13 budget.

    Tier 1: If the state gets $2 billion to $3 billion of the money, the state will impose about $600 million of cuts and roll over the remainder into the 2012-13 budget. The $600 million in cuts include a $100 million cut to UC, a $100 million cut to CSU, a $100 million cut to corrections and a $200 million cut to Health and Human Services.

    Tier 2: If the state gets $0 to $2 billion of the money, the state will also impose up to $1.9 billion in cuts, including a $1.5 billion reduction to schools that assumes seven fewer classroom days. It also includes a $250 million elimination of school bus transportation (except for that which is federally mandated). Cuts will be proportionate to how much of the first $2 billion in revenues the state gets. State will also impose the Tier 1 cuts.

    Talk about gimmicks. This budget is all smoke and mirrors with assumptions that are not within the realm of possibility.

    Look at the Amazon Tax for example. Is there anyone who believes the state will capture $200 million in additional revenue when Amazon et. al. say they will cease their associate businesses in California if the law is signed. Plus, they plan to challenge the legislation in state and federal courts and what will that cost the State of California.

    So, the Democrats have made a deal that will hopefully get past the Democratic Controller John Chiang in order to restore the Legislators pay. But, in all reality, this budget deal is a sham based on wildly exaggerated revenue assumptions – a rosy scenario at the extreme.

    On to today’s links……

    Dan Walters: Will Democrats’ rosy-scenario budget work?

    When governors and legislators face seemingly big budget deficits, they often turn to gimmicks to balance income and outgo on paper.

    The most creative have been what Capitol cynics call “rosy scenarios.”

    The politicians conjure up some new source of revenue, swear it is legitimate and then use the projected windfall to close their gap.

    Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was an early advocate of rosy scenarios, such as assuming that the state could get as much as $1 billion from new gambling compacts with Indian tribes, or it could seize a half-billion dollars from punitive judgments in lawsuits.

    Later, he counted revenues from peddling the state’s workers’ compensation insurance business and state buildings. His rosiest scenario occurred last year, when his initial budget assumed that the federal government would give the state as much as $7 billion in extra cash.

    None of those funds materialized, but that doesn’t prevent Capitol politicians from dusting off another rosy scenario.

    Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic legislators, whose hopes of winning Republican support for tax extensions vanished, ginned up a new budget Monday, just days before the 2011-12 fiscal year is to begin.

    Brown vetoed one Democratic budget, saying it was so gimmicky that Wall Street bankers would not give the state billions of dollars in short-term operating loans. And Controller John Chiang followed that by decreeing that since a balanced budget wasn’t enacted by the constitutional deadline of June 15, he’d cut off legislators’ salaries and expense payments as a new state law requires.

    Brown and Democrats went back to the budgetary drawing board, and a new rosy scenario emerged – that above-expectation tax revenue this year means the state will collect an extra $4 billion during the fiscal year.

    Brown ditches special election, plans more cuts

    Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday abandoned his plan to hold a special election this year on whether to renew expiring tax hikes and instead said he will balance California’s budget with a combination of spending cuts and a projected increase in normal tax revenue.

    Brown announced the latest approach at a news conference during which he was accompanied by the leaders of the state Assembly and Senate, both fellow Democrats. They agreed to pursue a budget for the coming fiscal year without support from Republicans, who had refused to accept an extension of expiring temporary tax increases, which had been the centerpiece of the Democratic approach.

    Brown had hoped to extend a series of tax increases that are expiring this week, but he needed two Republican votes in each house to bring the proposal before voters.

    After six months of talks with a handful of GOP lawmakers, Brown said he finally gave up on the idea Sunday night after receiving a text message from one of the lawmakers.

    “We had some very serious discussions. I thought we were getting close, but as I look back on it, there is an almost religious reluctance (among Republican lawmakers) to ever deal with the state budget in a way that requires new revenues,” Brown told reporters during a brief news conference.

    Instead, the Democratic leaders said they would pursue a ballot initiative to bring tax increases before voters in November 2012.

    Congressional Republicans launch TV spot against Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in midst of redistricting

    In some early fallout from the political upheaval expected under proposed new districts for California lawmakers, the campaign arm for House Republicans said it would begin airing a TV ad slamming Rep. Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara) over her position on Medicare.

    “Congress is debating big changes for Medicare, and Congresswoman Lois Capps voted for the most extreme plan. Capps voted for the plan the media says would ‘decimate Medicare,'” the narrator says in the spot that the National Republican Congressional Committee said would begin airing Tuesday.

    Republicans see Capps as among the most vulnerable of the Democrats under the redistricting. Her district, derided as the “ribbon of shame” for its blatant gerrymandering, forms a narrow, 200-mile coastline band that runs from Oxnard to the Monterey County line. Under the first round of proposed new maps, her district would shift considerably and become less Democratic than currently.

    Enjoy your morning!