Updated:Upset Possible: CA-36: Janice Hahn Refuses to Mention She is a Democrat in Television Ads – Something Going On in This Race?

The beach towns, originally settled by Midwestern retirees, were historically Republican. By the 1990s, however, the population had shifted to a younger generation, and the area, like so many other relatively high-education, high-income suburbs in major non-Southern metropolitan areas, trended heavily toward the Democrats. Hahn’s ads are clearly designed to appeal to cultural liberals and seem to totally ignore the fiscal and economic issues which are of paramount importance to most voters across the nation. A Republican victory would suggest that cultural issues are of far less importance than they were in the 1995-2005 period, when partisan preferences seemed frozen, and that affluent suburban voters are open to voting Republican on economic issues.

This was supposed to be an easy race for Democrats. Under California’s new primary rules, the top two candidates in the primary face off in the general election, and it was expected that the top two candidates in the May 17 primary would be Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen. Huey edged Bowen out for second place, but even so I thought that his chances of winning the seat were negligible. Now they seem somewhat better than that, although I think oddsmakers would still have to favor Hahn. But oddsmakers can be wrong, as the voters in the New York 26th district demonstrated.

Upset possible? I would not sell Craig Huey short here.