Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

President 2012: Will Michele Bachmann Drive Mitt Romney to the GOP Nomination?

Yes, as I have written before here.

Therefore, I agree with this analysis from Larry Sabato et. al..

In 2012 the Republican presidential nomination calendar starts off with Iowa, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida is jockeying for a top position as well. As Chart 1 indicates, Iowa’s GOP electorate is the most conservative of those five states.

Iowa and South Carolina are dominated by evangelical Christian voters who could be more supportive of a religious conservative like Bachmann. New Hampshire and Florida, on the other hand, are more favorable for a moderate candidate such as Romney. (Nevada’s caucusgoers, a quarter of whom were Mormon, went for Romney by a wide margin in 2008.) Remember that ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an evangelical favorite, won Iowa in 2008, but that proved to be the peak of his campaign.

When considering the makeup of the early states, the map looks reasonably well-suited for Romney, so long as he wins New Hampshire, where polling indicates he is a huge favorite at this early stage. He likely will be favored to do well again in Nevada, and although evangelical-rich South Carolina will be a challenge for Romney, he could make up for a setback there in friendlier Florida.

A Bachmann victory in Iowa could eliminate at least one of Romney’s rivals, potentially even Pawlenty. Romney then could confront Bachmann on friendlier territory in New Hampshire, where her religious conservatism would not play quite as well. That would put Romney in the position of John McCain in 2008, as the ideologically questionable front-runner fending off a challenger more beloved by the base (Bachmann as 2012’s Huckabee). Romney is betting that the GOP establishment will get behind him this time, as it did for McCain four years ago.

Perhaps Romney, who is not participating in the Ames, IA straw poll in August, will mimic McCain’s path in another way: effectively skipping Iowa and letting Bachmann do his work there for him.

Will this strategy work? Can Romney truly count on rescue by a party establishment nervous about offending the Tea Party? Will GOP voters even listen to party and elected leaders after all those grassroots victories in 2010? These and so many more questions will keep us occupied for months to come.

And, then there may be a wild card of Sarah Palin in there. I don’t think Texas Governor Rick Perry will be much of a threat to Mitt Romney.

But, Sarah would…..